A cold snap in South America caused more than
100 deaths and still counting. According to various media reports:
- In Chile, the
Aysen region suffered from the worst snowstorm in 30 years. The snow
accumulation reached 5 feet in Balmaceda and the Army was called to rescue
people trapped by the snow.
- In Argentina, the
snow in the region of Mendoza, famous for its winery, described as the heaviest
in a decade. The temperature in the morning of July 16th was the lowest in the
city of Buenos Aires since 1991: -1.5C. The cold snap caused a record demand
for energy and Argentina had to import electricity from Brazil. Many industries
in Argentina were shut down due to gas shortage. It snowed in nearly all the
provinces of Argentina, an extremely rare event. It snowed even in the western
part of the province of Buenos Aires and Southern Santa Fe, in cities at sea
level.
- In Bolivia,
dozens of people died in consequence of the very low temperatures. In some
areas of the nation, the cold period was described as the worst in 15 years. It
even snowed in the Chaco of Bolivia, one of warmest areas of South America,
where the local population never saw snow before
- The worst of the
cold has been in southern Peru, where the Andes Mountains had temperatures drop
down to - 23 degrees Celsius.
- The most famous
beach of Argentina, Mar del Plata, was whitened by the snow in the morning of
July 15th, an event only seen in recent memory in 1991, 2004 and 2007.
What is common in all these years is that
these were all either La Nina years or a period global climate was
transitioning from an El Nino conditions to a La Nina episode.
The Australian Met Department confirmed that the sub-surface of the ocean is
now more than 4°C cooler than normal for this time of year in the central Pacific
due to La Nina developments. However, this by itself cannot explain the cold
snap. The main ice covered landmass in the Southern Hemisphere is Antarctica at
the South Pole, accounting for 90-95% of the world's ice (and 70 percent of its
fresh water). Antarctica is covered with ice, average 7,000 feet thick, and if
completely melted would lead to sea levels to rise about 200 feet.
Nevertheless, the average temperature in Antarctica is - 37°C, so the ice there
is in no of danger of melting. In fact, in most parts of the continent it never
gets above freezing.
The Antarctic Sea Ice by end of June in fact
grew to record levels (marked in purple in the graphic). The Southern
Hemisphere sea ice area narrowly surpassed the previous historic maximum of
16.03 million sq. km to 16.17 million sq. Read here. It means temperature
has gone much lower than -37°C, possibly now around -60C and that net
incremental ice area almost completely offset any loss ice from its northern
counterpart the Arctic – keeping in check rise of sea levels globally.
The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is a
low-frequency mode of atmospheric variability
of the southern hemisphere mid- and high latitudes consisting of a seesaw in
atmospheric pressure between the Antarctic region and the southern midlatitudes
and is associated with lower SST and sea ice anomalies. A peer reviewed study by Pohl et al found
the following interlinks between AAO and La Nina:
“At the inter-annual time scale, a strong tele-connection with ENSO is
found during the peak of the austral summer season, corroborating previous
studies. El Nino (La Nina) tends to correspond to a negative (positive) AAO
phase.”
June saw the second highest positive AAO anomaly in the historical record,
second only to July 1979 – another La Nina year. Climatologists and weathermen
attribute this extreme event of snow in South America to a pocket of
low-pressure Antarctic air that found its way over South America. The outbreak
began more than one week ago with biting winds out of Antarctica chilling
southernmost Chile and Argentina, a land known as Patagonia.
As a result areas within the middle and high
latitudes in the southern hemisphere are experiencing lower than average temperatures,
if not record lows, be it much of Latin America, Australia, New
Zealand, South Africa or Nambia. Since at the intraseasonal time scale,
AAO shows most energetic fluctuations in the 30-60-day range, these conditions
could well extend into beginning of September.
Europe Barbecued
In April 2009, the UK Met Office predicted a
barbeque summer in 2009. After the disappointments of 2007 and 2008, the
British public were promised a scorcher of summer. The Met Dept ended up with
mud on the faces as it turned out another disappointing summer. Faced with
widespread public ridicule, this year they gave up seasonal forecasting only to
find their barbequed summer materializing this year. According to various media
reports:
• Russia's worst droughts in a century have destroyed almost 10 million
hectares (25 million acres) of crops in central and European areas, authorities
said. A state of emergency has been declared in 18 Russian provinces, where
fire has engulfed more than 26,000 hectares (64,000 acres) of forest. Germany's
Potato Industry Union, meanwhile, says it expects losses of 30 percent in this
year's harvest. "The situation is worse in many places this year than in
the drought years of 2003 and 2006," said Martin Umhau, the head of Germany's
Union of Potato Industry. The Chamber of Agriculture of the Czech Republic
estimates the grain harvest could by down by 10 percent compared with
2009.
• Meanwhile, drowning deaths were up in Eastern Europe as people flocked to
seas, lakes and rivers in search of a break from the blistering heat. More than
230 people died in the last week alone across Russia, with 21 perishing over
two weeks in Latvia, according to officials, who lamented the tendency of heavy
drinking while sunbathing.
• The heat also took its toll on transport, with roads damaged and railway
operators suffering. A major highway from Prague to Germany had to be closed
for several days of repairs, and the Vodochody international airport north of
Prague stopped accepting passenger flights after heat damage to the runway. In
the Baltic state of Estonia, several churches were being used as heat shelters,
particularly for the elderly.
• In Finland, which reported a 75-year record of 34.2 C (93.5 F), stores were
quickly running out of fans and air conditioners. The same happened in Germany
and Hungary, where the mercury hit 37 C (99 F).
The current heat wave in Europe is not
unprecedented and it finds high correlation with La Nina years. While 2003 was
the worst in recent history, 2008, was also a year with above-average
temperatures all over Europe. A large geographical domain, including
northwestern Siberia and part of the Scandinavian region, recorded a remarkably
mild winter. January and February were very mild over nearly all of Europe.
Monthly mean temperature anomalies for these months exceeded +7°C in some
places in Scandinavia. In most parts of Finland, Norway and Sweden, winter
2007-08 was the warmest recorded since the beginning of measurements. In
contrast, the boreal winter was remarkably cold for a large part of Eurasia
extending eastward from Turkey to China. Some places in Turkey had their
coldest January nights in nearly 50 years. This extreme cold weather caused
hundreds of casualties in Afghanistan and China.
As in the past, the current heat wave
sweeping across Europe has caused a significant reduction in Arctic ice.
According to the newspaper "Moskovsky Komsomolets" in the zone of the
Yenisei Siberia, the permafrost is, on average, ten meters thick; this year has
already been melted to a depth of 3.5 meters, compared to a usual maximum of
three meters at the end of summer. As the newspaper observed, there is a danger
of Arctic falling to in 2007 (la Nina year) levels where in late summer it fell
to 4.4 million square kilometres, compared to the norm of 8 million and 11
million in summer and winter.
The link of heat waves to La Nina was established by Chase et al in a peer
reviewed study, published in Geophysics Research Letters, titled Was the 2003
European summer heat wave unusual in a global context? Read here. They found natural
variability in the form of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and volcanism
appearing much of greater importance than any general warming trend in causing
extreme regional temperature anomalies. However, this by itself does not
sufficiently explain the current extreme event.
The higher temperatures are caused partly by an interaction between a zone of
low pressure in Western Europe and high pressure around the Mediterranean. What
that does is to bring hot African air up over Europe. Partly it is caused by
the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is the Northern Hemisphere’s counterpart to
AAO of the South Hemisphere. The AO is the pattern in which atmospheric
pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive
phases. Diagrammatically as illustrated by NOAA, the positive and negative
phases are depicted below:
US based Weather Services International, who
correctly predicted last October that Europe would suffer a very cold start to
2010, had this to predict for the
coming months:
“We expect the recent warm, dry weather across the eastern and
southern mainland to continue into August, while the UK and Scandinavian
temperatures run slightly above to slightly below normal. By September, the
mainland heat will abate a bit, while Scandinavia experiences increasingly
warmer temperatures, relative to normal. By October, the combination of a very
warm Atlantic Ocean and an emerging La Nina event in the tropical Pacific will
result in very mild conditions across Scandinavia and the eastern mainland,
with below-normal temperatures confined to Iberia.”
As in other La Nina
years, much of Europe will experience above normal temperatures in the coming
months and possibly a milder winter too.
As Climate Flips,
Climate Alarmism Face End-Game
Global warmists had
predicted the year 2010 as being the warmest in recorded history. The first
half of the year put smiles on their faces, each month they derived sadistic
pleasure on announcing to the world that new temperature highs were being
recorded. The spread of red in NOAA’s temperature anomaly graph should make
this evident.
The same NOAA temperature
anomaly graph for July first week should quickly wipe the smug of their faces.
Notice the sea of blue swamping the red that makes July obvious that global
climate was flipping towards a much cooler world. Even in June, warmists
claimed based on unreliable surface temperature data that how that global land
and ocean surface temperatures were the highest since record keeping began in
1880.
The irony was that UAH (Satellite) temperature graph for January to June was
clearly suggesting that global temperatures were in a declining trend, even
when global warmists were in their full elements scaring the world that global
warming was accelerating. From a near record high of +0.72C anomaly in January,
it hit +0.44C in June. And if the trend continues, we should see a more
pronounced fall this month with global temperature anomaly plunging within the
region +0.3-0.2C. For the latest global (satellite), temperatures visit here.
By October, the reds in the Northern Hemisphere – mainly SE of US, Europe and
Arctic - can be expected to change to a cooler colour as the heat wave is
expected to abate by then. This together with a drastic fall in Sea
Surface Temperatures (SST) should see global temperature anomalies near zero.
It is now evident that 2010 will not be the warmest in recorded history.
Hopefully, by the time of the Climate meet in Cancun, we should see global
temperature anomalies below their long-term mean as it regularly happens during
a La Nina year. It will be then obvious to all that the theory global warming
lies in shambles and run its course (scam).
According to IPCC, the
theory is automatically falsified if there is an absence of warming trend for
15 years. Since 1998, there is no significant warming trend seen, this makes it
12 years where there is an absence of significant warming trend. There is
little chance during the remaining three years that this trend will change.
Temperatures usually spike during a moderately strong El Nino as just completed
in April. The probability for a similar one is 12 years from now. More important,
with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) negative, there is little chance of
runaway warming.
Very nice article and full of great information
ReplyDeleteGreat to see y have a new blog design.
ReplyDeleteThese are natural variations which Greens use to exploit fear. You bet they will play up the heatwave and keep mum on coldwaves. How cynical can they get
ReplyDeleteIn Peru temperatures dropped -23C and still warmists keep silent. Yes Rachel, how cynical can they get!
ReplyDelete