Last year at COP 15, UNFCCC meet in Copenhagen,
the mood of climate activists at were not only upbeat but belligerent. The
campaign for a successor treaty to the Kyoto protocol began as much as six
months in advance.
Spurred on with funds and encouragement from sponsors,
climate activists in thousands booked all jumbo jets and hotels to attend the
event so much so that air-fares sky-rocketed and hotels booked to their brim.
The world media joined the chorus and delivered a massive coverage.
Though Al Gore, the high priest of global
warming by then lost much of his following, Rajendra Pachauri filled this
vacuum by becoming the visible face of the movement. The pressure forced a
record number of world leaders to descend on Copenhagen, even our Indian Prime
Minister, Dr. ManMohan Singh who was reluctant to attend was
eventually pressurized to do so. And so did Obama the popular new U.S.
President waded in to put his reputation on the line.
Copenhagen however proved the last hurray of
the global warmists. Their moment actually passed after Climategate - leaked
e-mails from UK's Climate centre a month to the run-up of Copenhagen meet while
the latter itself ended without serious progress on a successor treaty to the
Kyoto protocol. Then came the fast and well coordinated skeptical attack of the
IPCC's AR 4 report, punching holes, and leaving the credibility of the
institution of IPCC and its Chair, Rajendra Pachauri in tatters. Pachauri soon
went out of sight from public eye.
The political landscape and public opinion
around the globe began to turn dramatically skeptical of apocalyptic claims of
climate alarmists. With the spectre of a Republican win of the Congress, the
Cap &Trade Bill becoming toast, the Chicago Carbon Exchange collapsed with
a ton of carbon finding its true value - zero. Without US ratification of any
successor treaty to Kyoto, any global treaty on emission cuts is rendered
impossible, leaving aside a last minute miracle. Al Gore's seminars found no
takers and a week ago he admitted that his support for bio-fuels was a big
mistake. The European Union’s touted reduction in carbon emissions has been
exposed as a giant fraud. The EU is actually responsible for 40 per cent more
CO2 today than it was in 1990!
A series of meetings in Germany, Korea and
China to the run-up of Cancun proved inconclusive. The UNFCCC is under severe
pressure to jump start the treaty process in Mexico, however, public doubts
about climate science and policy coupled with an inability of developed and
developing nations to find common ground leave the UNFCCC with a daunting task
ahead. Accordingly, the mood of climate alarmists going into Cancun is visibly
downbeat. The world suffers from apocalyptic fatigue and scepticism so much
even they know too well their usual doomsday soothsaying are now met with
derisive laughter. With public support cultivated over the last decade or so
has largely evaporated, the lack of confidence reflects itself in the run-up to
Cancun. So unlike Copenhagen, this time it had been a rather quiet and more
sombre affair.
Even the media coverage this year had been
sparse, at best lukewarm. This is in contrast to the run-up to Copenhagen where
important newspapers printed urgent front-page calls for action and TV News
channel carried daily debates and documentaries to spur the public to demand
action from their governments.
Again unlike Copenhagen where President
Obama, Secretary Clinton, and Speaker Pelosi all attended, this year, they all
apparently will be absent. The U.S. delegation will be led by a state
department official named Todd Stern. So would be the number of head of states
attending the meeting - reduced to a handful. So will be the number of
climate activists - who will make a token presence at Cancun. Unlike 24x7 news
coverage of Copenhagen, hardly any one will pay attention to the climate
conference at Cancun next week, where a much-reduced group of delegates will go
through the motions.
But make no two bones about it. With
trillions at stake it is highly unlikely those carbon traders (whose
markets expire with the Kyoto protocol), 'green' energy manufacturers, warmist
scientists, environmental organizations, NGOs are not going down without a
fight and they can be expected to the push for a new treaty with renewed
ferocity:
"Cancun
is a make or break opportunity to save the lives of millions of children whose
lives will be made even worse because of climate change" said Lydia Baker, Save the Children's humanitarian
policy adviser.
Tim Gore, Oxfam's senior climate change policy adviser,
added:
"Climate
funding holds the key to unlocking the talks and steering the world to a global
solution that tackles the threat and the reality of climate change"
These are cries of terminally ill patients
hoping for a last minute miraculous recovery. The fact is that concerns
about energy security and the parlous state of most western economies, besides
the developed and non-developed countries divide, rules out any comprehensive
global agreement on any emission cuts. As per the Copenhagen Accord, the
developed countries have promised USD 100 billion a year of climate financing.
Building on that promise is the report by the UN High-Level Advisory Group on
Climate Change Financing, released earlier this month, which detailed how the
rich can make good on their financial pledges to help poor countries reduce
their emissions and adapt to climate change. They found that a carbon price of
USD 20-25 for each tonne of CO2 emitted is required to raise funding in the
amounts required, which would include a tax on aviation and shipping.
But the reality is that with collapse of the
Chicago Carbon Exchange in the US, with Australia and Canada highly unlikely to
pass a legislation permitting carbon trading, with the Eurozone economies
struggling to stay afloat; the Copenhagen financing agreement is most
likely be put into the deep freezer. This leaves free transfer of
"renewable energy" technologies as the only area with any chance of
agreement. But unwillingness of Western government to do away with patent laws
may also throw a spanner into the wheel even here.
Such is the mood of gloom, Cancun scientists
say that mass suicides are the only option left! It is now so severe that only
by exterminating ourselves like the vile parasite we are can we hope to leave a
planet fit for habitation by generations as yet unborn, ’scientists’ say. Read
more James Delingpole's post in
the Telegraph.
But some things remain the same even when
everything else changes. This is hypocrisy. Government delegates will live in
style in resorts with personal Jacuzzi in each £240-a-night suit. They have a
choice of 14 buffet and a la carte restaurants and 12 bars, and can even
strengthen the Coalition over a round of golf on a course designed by Jack
Nicklaus. Read more here.
What would be different from Copenhagen is
the world media would be spared the spectacle of warmists shivering of a bitter
northern winter of unseasonal snow and blizzards, or heads of states, including
Obama scampering to catch their planes before a blizzard dumped a foot of snow
into the city. Cancun's tropical climate ensures there is no such embarrassment
for warmists. But this does not take away the fact that almost the entire North
Hemisphere is experiencing early and record cold. Here’s an overview:
Europe
Snow was spreading across Europe Friday as a
prolonged blast of wintry weather tightened its grip, causing travel headaches
and havoc on the highway. It is the earliest November snowfall in 17 years.
Read More
Winter Dec to Feb inclusive in Britain and
Europe will be exceptionally cold and snowy – like hell frozen over at times -
with much of England, Germany, Benelux and N France suffering one of the
coldest winters for over 100 years. It is expected that two of the three months
Dec, Jan & Feb are likely to be in the three coldest for a 100 years (eg
using Central England Temperatures). Read more
Russia has seen its first snow accumulation
of the season. According to Rutgers Global Snow Lab, Russia doesn’t normally
receive snow until the second week in September. Read More
You don't have to say any more. The mercury
at Llysdinam near Llandrindod Wells plunged to minus 17.3C – the principality’s
lowest ever temperature for November and the UK's chilliest for the month since
1985. That temperature, incidentally, is just a fraction above the optimum for
a domestic freezer. Read More
