Global warmists now claim
that the recent double whammy, earthquake and Tsunami, suffered by Japan were
on account of Global Warming. Is this alarmism or fact?
So let’s begin by a check on global temperatures. As seen in the above graph,
the last two months (January & February) UAH satellite data indicates that
average global temperature anomaly has slipped into the negative band due to
the current La Niña's effect. Temperatures are back to those we experienced
during seventies global cooling period. Japan is still in winter. Victims of
these recent extreme events in Japan have to face snow and sub-zero
temperatures, which is the reason India sent tons of blankets - to make our
small relief contribution count! So what global warming are we talking about?
Tsunamis arise from the sudden displacement of gigantic water masses due to
earthquakes on the sea bed, volcanic eruption above and under water, landslides
or meteorite impacts. About 86 % of all Tsunamis result from so-called
sea-quakes. The recent Tsunami falls under this category.
The word tsunami (combining a character meaning port - tsu and the
character for wave - nami) was first coined in a historical period
referred to by the Japanese as Edo (1603-1868). The latter coincides
with a period climatologist now describe as the Little Ice Age (LIA) where
average global temperatures were 1-1.5 degree Celsius cooler than they are
today.
During this LIA period, the planet was so cold that River Thames used to
regularly freeze during winters and the Vikings were forced to give up their
colonalization of Greenland. Although there is some disagreement about exactly
when the Little Ice Age started, records suggest that temperatures began
cooling around 1250 A.D. after a Medieval Warm Period were temperatures were
estimated to be slightly warmer than today’s climate. The coldest time during
LIA was the 16th and 17th Centuries; ironically within the period the word
Tsunami was estimated to have been coined.
If this be the case, this should clearly establish that Tsunamis, as a
phenomenon, is temperature neutral. The earthquakes that trigger them are
likewise temperature neutral. The Great Lisbon earthquake in 1755 during the
LIA period is an illustration of this reality. The earthquake was followed by
fires and a tsunami, which caused near-total destruction of Lisbon in the
Kingdom of Portugal, and adjoining areas. Geologists today estimate the Lisbon
earthquake approached magnitude 9 on the moment magnitude scale.
Earthquakes are mainly geological phenomenon
caused by the movement of tectonic plates (also called Freudric momentum) and
at the boundaries of tectonic plates, which form huge faults on the surface.
The entire Japan is seismically categorized as 5 - the highest rating for
vulnerability to earthquakes. This is because Japan is either on or close to
the boundary of four tectonic plates: the Pacific, North American, Eurasian
which are primary plates, and Philippines Sea plate, which is one of the
secondary plates.
When large enough forces are applied in two
different directions, they overcome the friction between the boundaries and
cause a sudden movement. The phenomenon is also known as a strike-slip. These plates are at
constant movement but not a smooth rate... The stress builds up over time --
over years, decades and centuries, and then at some point it overcomes the lock
between two parts of the crust. As the plates move, they hit each other,
building pressure. Then pressure releases, causing earthquakes and the rising
seabed triggers tsunami. The recent earthquake is estimated to have generated
energy that was roughly equivalent to the energy the US consumes in a
year.
Japan is located along the Pacific "ring
of fire," an area of high seismic and volcanic activity stretching
from New Zealand in the South Pacific up through Japan, across to Alaska and
down the west coasts of North and South America. Just how vulnerable Japan is
to earthquakes is explained by a blog:
“The eastern shore of Japan is located immediately west of the Japan
Trench. This trench is a result of a subduction zone created by the Pacific
plate sinking underneath the North American plate. The northern half of Japan
is part of the North American plate and the southern half is part of the
Eurasian plate. The Island of Japan is actually cut in half by a major plate
boundary where the North American and Eurasian plates meet. Immediately to the
south of Japan is the minor Philippine plate. So, very near to Japan, the
Pacific plate is sinking underneath both the North American plate and the
Philippine plate."
However there exists an interesting paper by
GuI-QING ZHANG, Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
China. This paper strongly associates increased Earthquakes with general
increases in solar proton events and the solar minima. Read here.
We are currently in the solar minima. Further, as solar proton events has
surged in recent times, Piers Corbyn, legendary weatherman who uses solar
techniques to forecast extreme weather events with an amazing 85% accuracy;
predicted increased earthquake and volcanic activities for the next two years
soon after the New Zealand Earthquake last month. Read here.
NASA (Read here) confirmed a Coronal
Mass Ejection (CME) resulted in a G1-class geomagnetic storm. An extract is
provided:
“After four years without any X-flares, the sun has produced two of the
powerful blasts in less than one month: Feb. 15th and March 9th. This continues
the recent trend of increasing solar activity associated with our sun's regular
11-year cycle, and confirms that Solar Cycle 24 is indeed heating up, as solar
experts have expected. Solar activity will continue to increase as the solar
cycle progresses toward solar maximum, expected in the 2013 time frame.....
A solar flare is an intense burst of radiation coming from the release
of magnetic energy associated with sunspots. Flares are our solar system’s
largest explosive events. They are seen as bright areas on the sun and they can
last from minutes to hours. We typically see a solar flare by the photons (or
light) it releases, at most every wavelength of the spectrum. The primary ways
we monitor flares are in x-rays and optical light. Flares are also sites where
particles (electrons, protons, and heavier particles) are accelerated....
On March 10, 2011 around 0630 UT, a CME did strike a glaceing blow to Earth's
magnetic field.”
So a CME hit Earth as recorded by NASA on March 10th, interfering with planet’s
magnetic field and hours later; Japan experienced the worst earthquake in its
recorded history. In February 24th a M3-class solar flare was detected,
and hours later the New Zealand earthquake occurred. Similarly, the Leh
Cloudburst also occurred hours after a CME hit earth.
Coincidence or fact? This is left to
future research to confirm. Till then, here's a BBC article on this
subject"
Is Solar activity
to blame for Japan's massive earthquake?
The massive earthquake that affected Japan this morning is one of the strongest
in recorded history at 8.9 on the Richter scale. With a number of powerful earthquakes recently it once again begs the question,
is there a link between seismic activity and solar activity?
Recently we have witnessed a very unusual, prolonged period of low solar
activity. Solar activity though has increased sharply in recent weeks. Only yesterday I noticed that the number of recorded sunspots (a crude measure
of solar activity) was in excess of 100 - compared with 6 months ago when the
number of sunspots was zero. In March last year a preliminary study was published from the Space and Science
research centre in Florida.
A review of historical records was performed for 350 years of global volcanic
activity (1650-2009) and seismic (earthquake) activity for the past 300 years
(1700 to 2009) within the continental United States and then compared to the
Sun's record of sunspots as a measure of solar activity.
According to this study, there exists a strong correlation between solar
activity and the Earth's largest seismic and volcanic events. They found an impressive degree of correlation for global volcanic activity
(>80.6%) and for the largest USA earthquakes (100% of the top 7 most
powerful) versus solar activity lows.
According to another study, published in Earth and Planetary Science letters,
solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices,
plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of
earthquakes, with maximum quake frequency occurring at times of moderately high
and fluctuating solar activity - which is what we have seen in the last few
weeks.
Piers Corbyn, at Weather action, added last month following the New Zealand
earthquake that within such long quieter solar periods like we have been
through, the biggest earthquake & volcano events are triggered by extra
solar activity, particularly during the the rising phase of even solar cycles.
This is precisely where we are now as Solar cycle 24 gains in strength. He also
claims that solar activity strongly influences climate patterns too. According to Mr Corbyn, 'The (New Zealand) event follows the world wide
increase in volcanism and earthquakes in the last year or two and confirms the
general statistical fact that more - and more serious - earthquakes, and
volcanic activity, tend to occur around solar cycle minima'. He reckons there will be more strong earthquakes like the ones we have recently
witnessed in the next 2 years.
This is another one of those frustrating areas of science. There does seem to
be empirical evidence to show a link between periods of low solar activity, and
increased occurrences of earthquakes, but quite why this is so is not fully
understood.
Dr. Vincent Courtillot is a professor of
geophysics at the University Paris-Diderot and Chair of paleomagnetism and
geodynamics of the Institut Universitaire de France. In the recent lecture
below he explains how solar cycles control the climate by influence on cloud
formation (the cosmic ray theory of Svensmark et al) and via influence on ocean
oscillations and length of day.
Dr. Courtillot notes that IPCC climate computer
models do not correlate with observations and that temperature trends vary
substantially between North America and Europe (which is contrary to IPCC
computer model predictions). He also notes that while the total solar
irradiance (TSI) only varies by about .1% over a solar cycle, the solar UV
varies by about 10% and that secondary effects on cloud formation may vary up
to 30% over solar cycles. The IPCC computer models dismiss the role of the sun
by only considering the small variations of the TSI and ignore the large
changes in the most energetic and influential part of the solar spectrum - the
ultraviolet.
I do not think there is any question about global warming. However, what can be contested are the predictions of models because there is greater variability and of associated approximations. I find theories of global warming and solar flares in connection with earthquakes hardly true. At least for now.
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