The deep depression over northwest Bay of
Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at about 60 km southeast of
Puri and 120 km east-northeast of Gopalpur in Orissa. BOB 03 is now
making a landfall in the areas marked in red in the satellite
image. The well-marked low-pressure area over East-central Bay of Bengal
intensified into a tropical depression having intense cloud tops of -80C. As
you read, it is slamming into coastal Orissa and NE Andhra Pradesh. Winds have
started picking up in many areas and heavy rains also happening.
The severe weather warning from the World
Meteorological Office said that the system is expected to:
"Move Northweastwards and cross Orissa coast
between Gopalpur (43049) and Paradip (42976) near Puri (43053) between 1200 UTC
and 1800 UTC on 15th October 2010. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is
estimated to be about 30 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the
system centre. The estimated central pressure is about 996 HPA.
Met office warms that squally winds with speed reaching 55-65 km/h, gusting to
75km/h, would previal along and off North Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West
Bangal coasts during next 24 hours.Heavy to moderate rain with a wind speed of
35 to 55 kilometers per hour is continuing in the coastal districts of Ganjam,
Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak and Balasore."
This
has been the season predicted with maximum storms. While the number of storms
has more or less on the lines predicted, what was surprising with the exception
of Cyclone Mindulle that hit Vietnam, the lack of landfall was a merciful
trend. As seen above, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) being globally at a low.
Alas all this may change with the Bay of Bengal getting active and with BOB 03
to make an expected landfall.
The sea-surface temperature over large parts of the Bay continued to be above
the threshold level needed for sustaining tropical storms. Upper level
divergence that sets up the window for the system to ‘breathe' through the top
and moderate vertical wind shear were two variables that boosted the prospects
for further strengthening. The West Pacific-South China Sea-Bay of Bengal
basins would need to calm down before the northeast monsoon can unfold along
India's southeast coast. As a result, the last two weeks saw a monsoon
deficiency over 40% - the lack of rains a boon for the Commonwealth Games. See
IMD map below:
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