Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Paper finds droughts & floods due to natural variability, not man-made greenhouse gases

A paper published in the Journal of Climate finds regional precipitation trends from 1977-2006 were related to natural variability of sea surface temperatures, not man-made greenhouse gases or aerosols. The finding contradicts claims by alarmists that mankind has "loaded the dice" for more droughts, floods, and extreme weather. In addition, the paper finds climate models are very poor at predicting both the intensity and patterns of regional rainfall, "especially a simulated increase in rainfall over the tropical Pacific and southeastern Australia that are opposite in sign to the actual drying in these areas."

Hoerling, Martin, Jon Eischeid, Judith Perlwitz, 2010: Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing.J. Climate, 23, 2131–2145.

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