The very fact that the IMD
has to keep on reiterating every day that it may be too early to panic suggest that
the spectre of drought is increasing as a strong probability, if not prevailing
already. While there is much merit to
IMD’s argument that the seasonal rainfall may in the end turn out not very far
from their revised forecast of 93% of LPA, with July-Sept making up for the June
deficiency, even so, there is every reason already to panic, at least on the agricultural
front.
Sowing may be delayed but
we have a sowing window up to July 15 for crops like soybeans, peas, corn and
sorghum. A prolonged dry spell could reduce crop yields and cut returns for
farmers, many of whom take on debt to buy seeds and fertilisers. This could
force a good section of farmers to skip the summer-sown crop.
What's more clear
is that agriculture is most likely going to turn in a fairly high negative growth rate and this is
going to be a big drag on the overall economy besides fuelling food inflation
big time this year. Time is running out very quickly, and if there isn’t a
revival of sort by end of this week, we should see an official drought
declaration by end of this week. So the question remains whether both the IMD and Modi Sarkar be still in the denial mode as this interview with the Economic Times show. Should they not instead preparing the nation to face hard times?
(Madhvi Sally,
EconomicTimes) India's weather office remains hopeful that rainfall can revive
in July and August, the wettest phase of the four-month monsoon, shrugging off
the increasing number of warnings from foreign and private forecasters that
chances of a drought have increase in the season that already has a 43 per cent
rain deficit since June 1.
The India Meteorological
Department (IMD) feels it's too early to panic as crops such as cotton, paddy,
oilseeds and pulses can be sown until the middle of July.
"We have over 2 months
and 26 days to see how the monsoon will be this year. Hence, it's too early to
say if 2014 will be a drought year,"
said D S Pai, Director
(Long-Range Forecasting Division) at The India Meteorological Department. He
said that July and August rains were expected to be better than June which
could change the monsoon pattern.
"There have been time
when even after recording deficient rains in June and July, monsoon activity
has picked up in the second half. This happened in 1983,"said Pai.
LS Rathore, director
general of India Meteorological Department said rain deficit in June was not a
big concern farmers can opt for short-duration crops.
"It will be a cause of
concern for me if there is a dry spell in July, after farmers go for sowing and
transplanting. They will again then have to invest in land preparation, seed,
fertilizers etc," he said.
Private forecaster Skymet
on Friday,said chances of a failed monsoon had risen to 60 per cent from 25 per
cent. According to them the regional distribution was even more alarming, with
80 per cent chances of drought in Northwest India, 75 per cent in Central India
and 50 per cent over South India.
In June, the IMD forecast
that India would get 93 per cent of its average rainfall this monsoon. It noted
the threat of the El Nino phenomenon lowered its estimate of seasonal rainfall
from its April prediction that rainfall would be 95 per cent of average.
As per India Meteorological
Department, the monthly rainfall over the country during the critical month of
July is likely to be 93 per cent of the average and 96 per cent during August
with a model error of plus minus 9 per cent said the met department.
Till July 5th, the country
has received 117 mm of rainfall, 43 per cent below the normal average of 206.5
mm as per IMD data. Rains have been below normal in all the four homogeneous
regions--64 per cent below normal in central India, 49 per cent below normal in
Northwest, 19 per cent below normal in east and north-east, and 44 per cent
below normal in southern peninsula.
The water levels in the 85
important reservoirs in the country was as on July 3, was 39.32 billion cubic
metre, 25 per cent of their total storage capacity as against 29 per cent
capacity a year ago)according to the Central Water Commission.
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