The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is
faring no better. Using the same IPCC’s statistical modelling techniques, IMD
in April predicted the current monsoon season's rainfall at 98 per cent of Long
Period Average (LPA) and then revised it downwards to 95 per cent on June 19
and further to 92.5 per cent on August 1 while further suggesting a
below normal' rainfall of 90 per cent for August-September.
But as on September 15th, the
country received more than 103 per cent rainfall of the LPA. Rainfall was
fairly well distributed with only four of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions
recording moderately deficit. The rainfall IMD map shows Rajasthan, West
Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu, Konkan and Goa, coastal Karnataka
and Uttarakhand receiving excess rainfall, while 24 sub-divisions getting
normal rains. Last month was, indeed, the wettest August in 15 years with
nearly 10 per cent surplus rains, while amounting to 123 per cent of LPA for
the first two weeks of September.
South Asia experiences monsoon rains from
June to September, which are vital for its agriculture. But above average rains
can cause widespread floods as seen this year. 16 million people have now been
affected by flooding caused by heavy and sustained monsoon rains falling across
south Asia. The floods have caused massive displacement of populations across
Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal and brought widespread destruction to
homes, livelihoods and agricultural cropland. In India, an estimated 5.2
million people in the worst hit areas of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Assam in the
northeast of the country have had their lives disrupted by the flooding, which
was sparked by incessant rains that caused burgeoning rivers to overflow and
embankments to breach. 158 people have died so far, mainly due to drowning.
Normally, withdrawal of monsoon from west
Rajasthan starts around September 1 but it is yet to do so this year. The
withdrawal is usually complete by around mid September. The late monsoon
withdrawal may mean wet conditions are here to stay till the month end. The
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has said in the latest update that a
rain-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is in the process of
transiting the Indian Ocean from west to east.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US
National Weather Services meanwhile said in its latest outlook for the week
beginning on Wednesday that an enhanced monsoon flow is expected to enhance
rainfall in northern India, the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. This is being
attributed to the sustained above average sea surface temperatures over the
western equatorial Indian Ocean that helps convection (process of cloud
building).
Red-faced IMD officials, attempting to
explain their failure said:
"A strong cross equatorial flow around Arabian sea in the second
week of July played an important role in causing rainfall. This is being
attributed to the sustained above average sea surface temperatures over the
western equatorial Indian Ocean that helps convection (process of cloud
building).”
But we saw the same phenomenon last year,
just as we saw late withdrawal of the monsoon. Also, last year, rainfall was
around 105 per cent of LPA. The late withdrawal of the monsoon and continuing
rainfall means we are on the way to either equal or better this mark. All
these characteristics bear the stamp of the La Niña. This prompted The Hindu to
comment:
“The IMD should, perhaps, shed its fetish for statistical
(extrapolation of historical data) forecast models over dynamical ones based on
real-time physics of atmospheric fluid flows. The disparity is best brought
home in the way the IMD dismissed, as recently as in August, the possibility of
a crucial La Niña event developing in the East Pacific — which dynamical models
had been harping on for months together.”
Last year’s La Niña accounted for the good
rains in India and the drought in East Africa. During El Niños, the reverse
applies with India tending to experience drought and East Africa floods. Both
cycles alternate once in 3-5 years. The in-between phase is described as El
Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions. The La Niña is the alter
ego of El Niño a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the
tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface
and the atmosphere.
During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific
Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns, resulting in temporary
global cooling. The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter
snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as
other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in
Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.
But this is bad news for
NGOs like Oxfam whose CEO, Barbara Stocking was quoted in their latest report “Growing a Better Future in a Resource Constrained World” made the shocking comment that
"The food system is pretty well bust”. Stocking’s NGO claims that it is all
because of climate change and making it imperative for agriculture to
contribute its mite to reduce its carbon footprint. Read more: OXFAM morphs into a Paul Ehrlich
clone: Claims world faces mass starvation!
The good monsoon this year has boosted the
prospects of Kharif harvest. According to the government data, following good
rains in most parts of the country so far, the area under cultivation under all
major crops has shown a significant rise this year compared with the last year.
Higher area and well distributed rainfall will help India achieve its target of
increasing its food grains output to an all time record 245 million metric
tons. All crop production is expected to be up except for pulses, coarse
cereals and groundnut output.
Since publication of their report: “Growing a Better Future
in a Resource Constrained World”
and making the flustering claim that "The food system is pretty well bust”.
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