First off the block with a ‘repeat' La Niña forecast made late last year since
proven true, the RIGC said in an update that the event would peak during the
winter and die out by March-April-May 2012. This is also expected to keep
mercury lower than normal, providing for a colder winter as was the case during
the past few years.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services and the
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have since confirmed the La Nina status.
In another case of RIGC outlook having been made many months ago and now
proving true, the BoM has said that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event
is evolving.
A positive IOD represents warming anomalies to the west of equatorial Indian
Ocean relative to the east. It is known to boost a concurrent Indian monsoon,
now in the last phase, though.
The RIGC has indicated excess rainfall for most of the country through
September-October-November, a likely result from a La Niña-positive IOD
combine.
POTENT COMBINE
The combination is also seen as prolonging the monsoon rains over India, with a
fresh low-pressure area having been tossed up over the Bay of Bengal.
Associated with the developing La Niña, cool to wet conditions would occur in
the southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil, the RIGC said.
The La Nina would also help bring down the surface temperature over many parts
of the globe except the northern Eurasia and southern US.
Wet to flooding conditions have been warned of in Indonesia, India, and eastern
Africa. Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) would have
warm/wet during autumn and colder weather in winter.
No comments:
Post a Comment