Mr. President,
You have recently held an undersea Cabinet
meeting to raise awareness of the idea that global sea level is rising and
hence threatens to drown the Maldives. This opposition is not founded in
observational facts and true scientific judgements. Accordingly it is
incorrect.
Therefore, I am most surprised at your action
and must protest to its intended message. In 2001, when our research group
found overwhelming evidence that sea level was by no means in a rising mode in
the Maldives, but had remained quite stable for the last 30 years, I thought it
would not be respectful to the fine people of the Maldives if I were to return
home and present our results in international fora. Therefore, I announced this
happy news during an interview for your local TV station. However, your
predecessor as president censored and stopped the broadcast.
When you became president, I was hoping both
for democracy and for dialogue. However, I have written to you twice without
reply. Your people ought not to have to suffer a constant claim that there is
no future for them on their own islands. This terrible message is deeply
inappropriate, since it is founded not upon reality but upon an imported concept,
which lacks scientific justification and is thus untenable. There is simply no
rational basis for it. Let me summarize a few facts (see Fig. 1, and evidence
presented in Mörner, 2007):
(1) In the last 2000 years, sea level has
oscillated with 5 peaks reaching 0.6 to 1.2 m above the present sea level.
(2) From 1790 to 1970 sea level was about 20
cm higher than today.
(3) In the 1970s, sea level fell by about 20
cm to its present level.
(4) Sea level has remained stable for the
last 30 years, implying that there are no traces of any alarming on-going sea
level rise.
(5) Therefore, we are able to free the
Maldives (and the rest of low-lying coasts and island around the globe) from
the condemnation of becoming flooded in the near future.
When I was president for the INQUA commission
on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003), we spent much
effort on the question of present-to-future sea level changes. After intensive
field studies, deliberation within the commission and discussions at five
international meeting, we agreed on a “best estimate” for possible sea level
changes by the year 2100. Our figure was +10 cm ±10 cm. This figure was later
revised at +5 cm ±15 cm (as given in Fig. 1). Such changes would imply small to
negligible effects.
From our sea level curve in Fig. 1, we can
directly see that such a small rise would pose no threat for the Maldives.
Rather, it would be a natural return to the conditions existing from 1790 to
1970; i.e. to the position before the sea level fall in the 1970s. The same
non-rising sea level story is recorded for all other areas claimed to be under
a flooding already in progress; viz. Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Venice (Mörner,
2007b). Besides, the proposed global trend derived from satellite altimetry
have been tampered by a “personal correction” in order to create a rising trend
(Mörner, 2008), actually not measured.. Thermal expansion of the water column
may affect the ocean level by some centimetres to a decimetre. At the shore,
however, the effect is zero (Mörner, 2000, 2005a, 2009a).
So, Mr. President, when you ignore to face
available observational facts, refuses a normal democratic dialogue, and
continue to menace your people with the imaginary threat of a disastrous
flooding already in progress, I think you are doing a serious mistake.
Let us be constructive. Let us discuss available
observational facts. Let us continue and extend our sea level project to new
sites in the huge Maldivian atoll archipelago.
And let us, for Heaven’s sake, lift the
terrible psychological burden that you and your predecessor have placed upon
the shoulders of all people in the Maldives, who are now living with the
imagined threat that flooding will soon drive them from their homes, a wholly
false notion that is nothing but an armchair fiction artificially constructed
by mere computer modelling constantly proven wrong by meticulous real-world
observations.
Your cabinet meeting under the water is
nothing but a misdirected gimmick or PR stunt. Al Gore is a master in such
cheep techniques. But such misconduct is dishonest, unproductive and certainly
most unscientific.
Stockholm, Sweden, October 20, 2009
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