(Vinson Kurian in
HinduBusinessLine) It is now becoming increasingly clear that a rogue
circulation developing in the southwest Arabian Sea over the next couple of
days will force monsoon flows headed towards Kerala coast to back off.
What the system will do at best is to posit the
flows for an onset over Sri Lanka, usually the penultimate port of call for
monsoon preceding Kerala by a margin of a few days.
The Sri Lankan Met Department forecast showery
weather in the seas off the western and southern coasts from May 25 (Sunday),
which is the normal date for monsoon onset over the island nation.
Thundershowers have been warned off the coast
extending from Colombo through Galle to Pottuvil, Hambantota, and around the
island. Winds will be southwesterly and the speed will be 20- to 40 km/hr. Sea areas around the island will be rough at times
as the winds could accelerate to 50- to 60 km/hr. These are considered ideal
onset conditions for the monsoon in these parts.
The Kerala coast may miss the June-1 timeline what
with the Arabian Sea storm forecast to head away from the coast towards the
Gulf of Eden (east coast of Africa). India Met Department seemed to be largely in
agreement with peer models abroad in so far as this outlook went.
Kerala might see weaker westerly winds blowing in
from the sea during this phase, sparking thundershower activity. Some models
see the activity spreading out towards neighbouring Tamil Nadu as well.
Meanwhile, the depression over east-central Bay of
Bengal weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area. The Met said on Sunday
that the system may now head for Gangetic West Bengal coast, and not Odisha.
But global models continued to point towards Odisha
coast as probable point of landfall.
The heat wave is now concentrated over the Vidarbha
region in Maharashtra. Dust storms and thundershowers are being forecast in
northwest India which normally should peak during heat this time of the year.
Delhi reported even hail during the 24 hours ending on Sunday morning.
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