(Vinson Kurian in HinduBusinessLine) The Asia-Pacific Climate Centre
based in Busan, South Korea, has said that the entire Indian subcontinent along
with the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal will remain dry during the June-August
period.
This is line with the forecasts being made based on
an expected El Nino event happening in the east Pacific with rains being driven
away from here to the Americas.
Warmer,
drier
Anomalously warm and dry conditions are expected to
prevail across the Maritime Continent (Indonesia and nearby island nations) as
well as tropical Indian Ocean.
This outlook comes during the last full week ahead
of the arrival of the South-West monsoon over Kerala coast, likely delayed by a
few days beyond the June-1 normal.
According to the Busan Centre, peninsular seas will
remain mostly ‘idle’ for most part of the first three months of the season.
June may be particularly bad, with July offering
some relief for the South. August is likely to turn wet for east and north-east
India comprising Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Nearly-normal to sub-normal rain is forecast for
the rest of the country.
Idling
seas
‘Idle’ seas would mean the Arabian Sea, and
importantly Bay of Bengal, may not be able to generate and send in weather
systems which carry rain into the farming heartland of India.
This could be a direct impact of the see-saw effect
of El Nino in which convection (ascending motion of air leading to
cloud-building) migrates to the east Pacific to the exclusion of the west,
which is nearer to India.
What India would get in the bargain is sinking
motion of air which compresses it towards the ground level only to convert it
into an area of high-pressure.
This kills convection and cloud-building which can
thrive only on warmer waters, which are driven away to the east Pacific (and
farther away from India) in El Nino conditions.
Heavy
rain
Meanwhile, back home, heavy rain continued over
east India as Monday’s well-marked low-pressure area relented a bit and
weakened into a conventional ‘low.’But it is socking up a lot of moisture from the
northwest Bay of Bengal and can still generate a lot of rain in the region as
also neighbouring north-eastern State for a couple of days more.
The heavy rain has ensured that the ‘top heat’ has
traced its way back to Rajasthan where it should ideally belong during this
time of the year.
Still, the Busan Centre is predicting that the
peninsula might heat up much more than the north and north-west even after the
country would have entered the monsoon season.
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