Saturday, June 7, 2014

Oopps. As Cyclone Nanauk heads to Oman, there goes any hope of near time Indian Monsoon revival

Cyclone Nanauk seems to be heading full blast to Oman instead of Porbandar in Gujarat as hoped for by IMD....Latest reports say the low has weakened and not to evolve into a tropical storm.
The India Met Department had hoped this system would have enough power to propel it some distance off Porbandar in Gujarat by June 12/13. Some meteorologists had even further hoped that the later may cause the Bay of Bengal to play ball and help it conjure up a circulation there as well heading into Myanmar, but not before directing some helpful southeasterly monsoon winds from the Bay into east India. All these speculations apparently have come to naught.

The real consequence of this is not only it dashes any near term hope of a storm genesis that can give momentum to the monsoon's northward progress but more significantly it will suck both moisture and heat from the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon which dashes any hope of monsoon revival in the medium term!

We are now passed the stage of concern over monsoon failure but there should be a cause for real panic...

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