The central tenet of the global warming
hysteria is the claim that global temperature rises corresponding to a rise in
CO2 in the atmosphere. Consequences of C02 levels of 650 ppm in the atmosphere
according to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are as
follows:
1. Temperature rise of at least 1.5 degrees
C. over the next 100 years. Because heating would be uneven, an average
temperature rise of 2° C would result in a rise of 4° to 5° C in some areas.
2. Sea level rise of 2 feet or more over the
next 100 years.
3. More erratic weather patterns, storms
droughts, floods, temperature extremes.
4. Slowing of ocean currents and possible
disruption of present patterns.
The first stabilization target of 550 ppm was
suggested in the mid 1990s. This number is double the concentration of
pre-industrial times and commonly was used for computer modeling of future
climate scenarios at the time. The Stern Review adopted 550 ppm as the upper
bound for acceptable CO2 emissions based mainly on economic cost-benefit
analysis of climate change mitigation.
More recently, studies by many scientific
agencies and the European Union have concluded that 550 ppm is not a sufficient
stabilization target, and that passing the threshold of 450 ppm is quite likely
to result in severe climatic shifts. An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450
ppm translates to a temperature increase of about 2 deg C.
The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in
Earth's atmosphere is approximately 391 ppm (parts per million) by volume as of
2011 - a record high since pre-industrial levels. But to the consternation of
global warmists there is no evidence of accelerated global warming since 1998.
Instead 2011 may go down as one of the coldest in the last three decades.
The result is an explosion of rationalization
viz. a defense mechanism that takes to justifying why their models had gone
awry instead of reconciling to the reality that they were simply wrong. The
following are the rationalizations:
1. Its China’s and
India’s Power Plants to Blame
It is well known that stratospheric aerosols
cool the surface of the Earth by reflecting some of the Sun's energy back into
space. These are tiny solid or liquid particles suspended within the air and
can include sea salt and dust, as well as sulphur dioxide given off by volcanic
explosions or the burning of fossil fuels.
The concentration of stratospheric aerosols can rise enormously in the
aftermath of major volcanic events, and this can lead to a notable drop in
global temperatures. However, recent data show that the quantities of aerosols
in the stratosphere can vary significantly even in the absence of major
eruptions, particularly owing to the effects of moderate eruptions and probably
also because of human activities.
The study, by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), suggests
that rapid industrial growth in Asia, particularly China, where air pollution
controls are not as strict as North America or Europe has seen large emissions
of global-cooling sulphur pollution into the atmosphere since 2000. This may
explain why it is that, when global warming emissions of carbon dioxide rose
sharply along with this industrial expansion, global temperatures over the
decade did not rise any higher than the record year of 1998.
The 2000s were measurably warmer than the 1990s with more very warm years at
the top at the top of the historical range. But only in 2010 did any
single-year average global temperature reach that of 1998, and this has seen
climate change sceptics argue that global warming has stopped.
Satellite data reveal that stratospheric aerosols increased by about 7% a year
between 2000 and 2010. This implies a change in the Earth's radiative forcing –
a measure of the imbalance between the Earth's incoming and outgoing energy –
of about –0.1 Wm–2. As the researchers point out, this compares to an annual
change in atmospheric carbon dioxide of about 0.5% a year and an overall
increase in radiative forcing over the last decade of +0.28 Wm–2, making the
contribution of the aerosols small but "significant".
Levels of stratospheric aerosols must be taken into consideration in future
climate projections. The researchers say that any climate models that neglect
changes to these levels relative to the year 2000 are likely to overestimate
warming if aerosol concentrations remain constant or continue to increase.
Read More: Environmental
Research Web
2. Volcanoes to be blamed
Karen Harpp, an assistant professor of
geology at Colgate University, suggests that the more substantive climatic
effect from volcanoes results from the production of atmospheric haze. Large
eruption columns add ash particles and sulphur-rich gases into the troposphere
and stratosphere and these clouds can circle the globe within weeks of volcanic
activity. The small ash particles decrease the amount of sunlight reaching the
surface of the earth and lower average global temperatures. The sulphurous
gases then combine with water in the atmosphere to form acidic aerosols that
additionally absorb incoming solar radiation and scatter it back out into
space.
Initially, scientists believed that the volcanoes’ stratospheric ash cloud had
the dominant effect on global temperatures. However, the eruption of El Chichon
in Mexico 1982 altered this perception. Two years prior, the eruption of Mount
St Helens had lowered global temperatures by about 0.1 degrees Celsius.
Contrastingly, the smaller eruption of El Chichon, had three to five times the
global cooling effect worldwide.. The atmospheric effects of volcanic eruptions
were confirmed following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, in the
Philippines. Pinatubo’s eruption cloud exceeded to reach 40 kilometres into the
atmosphere and expelled around 17 million tons of sulphur dioxide (just over
twice that of El Chichon).
Georgiy Stenchikov, research professor with the Department of Environmental
Sciences at Rutgers University stated, “Volcanic eruptions cause short-term
climatic changes and contribute to natural climate variability”. Furthermore,
he added that “exploring the effects of volcanic eruptions allow us to better
understand important physical mechanisms in the climate system that is
initiated by volcanic forcing”. Stenchikov and Professor Alan Robock of Rutgers
University with Hans Graf and Ingo Kircher of the Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology performed a series of climate simulations that combined volcanic
aerosol observations with upper atmosphere research satellite data from the
Goddard Space Flight Center.
The research team ran a general circulation model with and without Pinatubo
aerosols for the two years following the Pinatubo eruption. In order to study
the sensitivity of climate response to sea surface temperatures, they conducted
calculations with climatology mean sea surface temperature, as well as those
observed during particular El Nino and La Nina periods.
Read more: The Economist
Not only is the global warmist lobby slowly
admitting there is no evidence of accelerated warming but more significantly,
there is a reluctant admission of the inadequacy of IPCC’s GCM models and that
the theory of the centrality of CO2 as the major climate driver has been
exposed as punched with full of holes:
1. The theory of all heat are trapped by the
atmosphere debunked by new peer research
The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and
NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing
in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data
also support data collected by NASA's ERBS satellite showing far more longwave
radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than
alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra
satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions
have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer
models have predicted.
In short, the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon
dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount
of heat in the earth's atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space.
Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the
earth's atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat
is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict.
Read more: Forbes
2. Clouds significantly
influence climate
Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). When nuclear
reactions occur in stars, nuclear particles of various sorts are spewed as a
consequence of the nuclear reactions. These particles race across the vast
distances of outer space. In our own sun, such reactions occur, producing a
spread of nuclear particles, some of which strike our planet.
Our planet has protection, and this is a magnetic field which results from the
interaction of the earth’s magnetic field and the magnetic field of the sun.
The sun’s field changes from time to time by some mechanism which is not yet
fully understood. But one good indicator of the state of the sun’s magnetic
field is the number of sunspots that can be seen on the surface of the sun. The
sunspots show up as dark blobs, which are actually huge magnetic storms.
The bottom line of all this is that, when there are few or no sunspots, the
protective field around the earth is weak and above-average numbers of cosmic
rays reach the atmosphere of the earth. When there are many sunspots, a strong
field results and there are less than average GCRs reaching our atmosphere.
What we see, and what Rao pointed out, is that more GCRs mean more cloud cover
over the earth and then global cooling results. With many sunspots evident,
global warming results. The principle is simple: with more clouds, less heat
reaches the earth because it is stopped by the clouds.
CERN is the European Center for Nuclear Research. Founded in 1954 and located
on the Swiss-French border, it is one of the world’s largest and most respected
centers of physics research. Through the use of particle accelerators and
detectors, CERN physicists discover the laws of nature and their interaction.
The CLOUD experiment tests the 1996 theory of Henrik Svensmark, director of the
Center for Sun-Climate Research at the Danish Technical University in
Copenhagen. Svensmark and others, including the United Nation's
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC), agree that clouds are a
primary influence on climate. However, they disagree on what causes clouds to
form.
According to Svensmark, fluctuations in solar
magnetic activity regulate the amount of cloud cover through corresponding
variations in the sun’s ability to shield cosmic rays. The result is periods of
global cooling (higher incidence of cosmic rays in our atmosphere) or warming
(lower incidence of cosmic rays). Svensmark’s theory discounts the significance
of carbon dioxide emissions in cloud formation.
The IPCC disagrees with Svensmark on why
clouds form. The anthropogenic crowd completely discounts solar activity,
insisting that manmade carbon dioxide emissions are the determining factor.
They ignore the Dane’s 2006 experiment showing cosmic rays and the sun’s impact
on them as the main causes of our cloud cover. CERN did not show a similar
disdain. It's CLOUD experiment, which began in 2009, determines the validity of
the 2006 research.
So let me get this straight.
ReplyDeleteDr. Spencer is able to come up with a model that actually follows empirical observations whereas Hansens model underpredicted actual CO2 rise by a significant margin and grossly overestimated actual temperature rise and ridiculously over estimated sea level rise.
And we are supposed to listen to these people?
It is truly sad the depths to which science (and specifically climate science) has plunged.
Disgraceful. Thank you Dr Spencer