"Do not compare the
present system with the super cyclone of 1999. We expect Phailin will make
landfall with a wind speed at about 175 kmph to 185 kmph. But in case of a
super cyclone, the speed is much more,"
IMD's cyclone warning division chief
Dr Mrutunjay Mohapatra told PTI over phone.
He said the system which
has a wind speed of above 220 kmph is considered a super cyclone. But in case
of Phailin, the expected wind speed is limited within 185 kmph.
International
meteorologists however are not that sure.
"Meteorologists can’t precisely
determine Phailin’s current strength because there are no “hurricane hunter“
aircraft taking direct measurements of storms in the Indian Ocean basin."
The rapid intensification
have caught them in surprise. Waters over the Bay of Bengal are exceptionally
warm right now—more than 28°C, which is the generally agreed upon threshold
above which rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is most likely. From
satellite images that wind speed were estimated as clocking 160-170 kmph
yesterday itself, giving Phailin an outside chance of being a super
cyclone.
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