Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Cyclone Watch:Possible Landfall mid this week – Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal

In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, a strong tropical disturbance with plenty of spin has developed off the west coast of Thailand, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. 
According to Wunderground the North Indian Ocean is much easier to predict the formation of Tropical Cyclones for then the Atlantic, so these forecasts are very likely to come true. The storm expected to track to the west-northwest and make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday. Conditions are ripe for this storm to intensify to hurricane strength and drive a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.

Above is the NASA-MODIS satellite image of tropical disturbance 90W over the eastern Bay of Bengal in the North Indian Ocean, taken at approximately 08:30 UTC on October 8, 2013. NASA expects this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone that will affect Northeast India by mid this week. 

Here is the likely plot of the cyclone given by my friend Santosh Subramanian Weather of Kolkata

P1 - 30 % CHANCE P2 - 50 % CHANCE P3 - 20 % CHANCE

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