In our archive, Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we predicted July the
month of extreme uncertainty for the monsoon because of a negative IOD. More so
as it is the month that accounts for nearly 33% of the SW Monsoon on an average. Our model assumed a weak IOD maybe upto 4%
deficiency for July. But the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in
Tokyo forecast now say that things could go much worse - almost total failure
of the monsoon during July. If so, this
is really bad news as next year we can expect another lean monsoon due to the weak
El Niño event expected.
Thiruvananthapuram,
April 16: Japanese
researchers have maintained below-normal monsoon outlook for India in the
latest forecasts.
They are
forecasting a dismal July for most parts of the country, following a June which
could be good in parts only. Northern
and eastern parts of north-west India and parts of east-central India might get
to see normal rains during June.
DRY IN WEST
But the
rain is likely to fail the west coast up to Gujarat, scientists at the Regional
Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo said.
Jammu and
Kashmir, north Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh are among the
regions likely to benefit from June rains.
East Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and coastal Orissa and adjoining coastal north Andhra,
too, are projected to be gainers.
The crucial
July month could likely prove a disaster, if the RIGC model is to be believed.
What could
mess up the monsoon this year is the feared negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
event in which the east of the ocean warms up anomalously.
NEGATIVE
IOD
And the
RIGC has retained the warning for ‘a weak negative IOD to evolve in early
summer and peak towards the autumn.'
The monsoon
is said to prosper when the reverse happens – warmth shifting to the west, as
it happened on a trot on three years from 2006.
In other
analysis, the RIGC said that the tropical Pacific condition has returned to a
‘neutral' state, ending a prolonged La Nina event.
This is
what drove the successful monsoon years of 2010 and 2011 after a disastrous El
Nino event in year 2009.
The neutral
state will continue at least until the end of this year, the RIGC said. It has
also forecast a colder winter for the US and Eurasia this year.
Other related
archived posts, click title to read:
Monsoon
onset seen around normal date
The summer
heating of the Indian sub-continent begins
Official
Monsoon forecast disappoints: The IMD plays safe, hedges its bet!
South Asian
Climate Outlook Forum-3: Monsoon likely to be below normal over south and
northwest India
Vagaries of
Weather: Monsoon Watch-2
India sees
2012 monsoon normal, no El Nino threat
July rains could fail India, says Japanese model
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