Heat Low
India, looking like an inverted triangle, is standing in the gate way for Indian Ocean (monsoon) winds. The max temp generated by GFS model indicates that eastern side of western ghat is warmer. The intense land heating is just picked up in Indian landmass along with Bay just north of 13-14 Deg N latitude. As the Sun advances further to North more heating will take place and traditional heat low in NW parts of India will form.
Pluvial lakes formed in Thar desert during last three years SWM rain. This lakes prevented heating in the NW. It may be considered as one of the reasons for the delay of formation or presence of traditional Heat Low in the NW.
Other related archived posts, click title to read:International Climatic Models Turn Even More Pessimistic of a “Normal” Indian Monsoon
Monsoon onset seen around normal date
The summer heating of the Indian sub-continent begins
Official Monsoon forecast disappoints: The IMD plays safe, hedges its bet!
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum-3: Monsoon likely to be below normal over south and northwest India
Vagaries of Weather: Monsoon Watch-2
India sees 2012 monsoon normal, no El Nino threat
July rains could fail India, says Japanese model
[Pluvial lakes: Geology marked or formed by abundant rainfall]
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