Friday, April 20, 2012

East Britain to be hit by the Coldest May in 100 years: Piers Corbyn



This is Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of Weatheraction.com who elaborated: "We are making this headline from our 45day ahead Britain & Ireland forecast public because of its importance... A system of cold air will get stuck over eastern Britain for most of the month.”
So parts of the UK are bracing for the thermometer to plunge as the cool spring turns even chillier. Worst hit will be the East – although summer will be on hold across the entire country.

The freeze follows a miserable April that has seen below-average temperatures, snow and torrential rain. Independent forecaster WeatherAction warned that next month will be the coldest or near coldest for 100 years” in the East. Forecaster Piers Corbyn said May will bring a “run of bitter northerly winds” with snow at times.

And just why is this prediction dramatic? Because it contradicts the official prediction of the Met Office for May. You will remember that it is on the basis of the Met Office prediction that temperatures can rise 4 deg Centigrade by 2060, that global warming activists have been demanding that “we act now”  to limit our carbon emissions. The Met Office predicted for their forecast 30 April—13 May (via BBC site):

 “The changeable theme of Apr looks as though it will be carried forth into May. Although some drier and brighter spells are expected, further rain or showers are likely for most places, accompanied by a chilly feel. There is the chance that pressure may start to build from the SW towards the middle of May, which would settle things down across S and W parts of the country, & as a result rainfall amounts here may end up lower than avg. The N & E look to stay cloudier & wetter than normal, on balance.”

Piers Corbyn is the bĂȘte noire of the UK’s Met Office. Three years in a row the Met Office predicted a “mild winter” to be proven wrong by Piers Corbyn, so much so that they (Met Office) gave up predicting seasonal winter forecast altogether, to save themselves the blushes. Last winter was the first time the Met Office did not give their seasonal winter forecast. If they thought it would have saved them further flushes, Piers Corbyn by challenging their short term forecast has thrown a spanner in their works by giving a contradictory forecast.

So just who is Piers Corbyn? Dr Piers Richard Corbyn is an astrophysicist and founder of the business Weather Action which makes weather forecasts up to a year in advance, and on which he also bets, and wins 80% of the times.

Corbyn's predictions are based on what is called "The Solar Weather Technique." The technique combines statistical analysis of over a century of historical weather patterns with clues derived from solar observations.  He considers past weather patterns and solar observations and sun-earth magnetic connectivity. Conventional meteorology claims that such influences cause minimal impact on the Earth's atmosphere. Corbyn is also sceptical of the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming. In fact, he is one of the leading climate sceptic scientists in the world.

Piers Corbyn asserts that earthquakes can be triggered by solar activity, and hence that he can to some extent predict them. So he started a trial forecast and here’s one published in March for April this year:



As seen below, he hit the bulls-eye:
• Magnitude 7.0 Eastern New Guinea Reg, Papua New Guinea April 17, 2012
• Magnitude 6.7 Offshore Valparaiso, Chile April 17, 2012
• Magnitude 6.5 Vanuatu April 14, 2012
• Magnitude 6.9 Gulf of California April 12, 2012
• Magnitude 6.5 Michoacan, Mexico April 11, 2012
• Magnitude 5.9 off The Coast Of Oregon April 11, 2012
• Magnitude 8.2 off the West Coast Of Northern Sumatra April 11, 2012
• Magnitude 8.6 of the West Coast Of Northern Sumatra April 11, 2012
Scoring a bulls-eye in predicting the recent Indonesian Earthquake, Piers Corbyn is riding on a high. And just what his statistical confidence levels of his prediction of a May cold cave? “Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%”   If I were a betting man, I would place every £ on his prediction.

Located in the SE of England is Oxford, the headquarters of the NGO, Oxfam, a key cog in the wheel in the global warming scam. So if you are working in Oxfam’s headquarters or planning to visit them in May, you are advised to bring out your woollies!

5 comments:

  1. Given the frequency of earthquakes around the Pacific ring, it shouldn't be difficult to score a “bulls-eye”. However, 6 of the 8 earthquakes you quote occurred in a period Corbyn's chart left blank (April 11 to 15). In addition, according to the USGS (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2012/), there were no major earthquakes in until April 11, which makes Corbyn's predictions for 2-3, 5-6 and 8-10 a bit of a miss. Like most of Corbyn's fans, you seem to believe his claims of accuracy when the facts paint a different picture. I wonder what excuses he'll be making in June...

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  2. To get an idea of how accurate Piers is, have a look at his predictions for April at 9'45” to 10'01” in this video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPNT0t1_bW0#! . He says, “First of all the drought conditions in Britain, due to blocking high pressure, are going to continue for Eastern England, so there'll be a big shortage of rain, still.” It now seems we've had the wettest April in a century (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/wettest-april-on-record). Doubtless Piers will spin this as success!

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  3. No weatherman has a 100% record. Corbyn is no exception.

    There is a huge risk making longer term forecast as opposed to a week earlier. Ed Lorenz showed in his simple 3-variable model the Chaos Theory that forecasts are an initial value problem. The forecast prediction is sensitive to conditional sensitivity; a small perturbation in the initial conditions can lead to a large change in the forecast.

    Since the intial conditions have changed, Corbyn changed his forecast accordingly. That is what genuine weathermen should do.

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  4. "Since the intial conditions have changed, Corbyn changed his forecast accordingly. That is what genuine weathermen should do." Isn't this the very thing that Corbyn criticises the Met Office for doing? The YouTube video link I posted is dated 2 April, so I think it's fair to say that the initial conditions for April are in place. If you're saying the initial conditions have changed, that sounds a lot like "hindcasting" to me. Corbyn can't have it both ways - if he's claiming to be able to forecast accurately months in advance, changing the forecast when it's not going according to plan is simply making excuses for failure. 85% accuracy? I don't think so - someone has already done some analysis (http://www.democracyforum.co.uk/environment-energy/93140-how-reliable-weather-action-forecasts.html).

    Piers attracts people because of his anti-AGW stance, and because of that they'll overlook any errors. It's almost as if he's a cult figure, and his followers remind me of those following Brian in the Monty Python film.

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  5. So, Rajan, it's June 1st and it seems that Piers' prediction has not come to pass. No excuses about the first part of May being cold please - the provisional CET would seem to be average or slightly above. Claiming Corbyn was right because we had a cold first half to May is like a losing football manager claiming a win because his team were ahead at half time. Still, I don't expect your faith will be shaken, eh?

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