Jairam Ramesh, India's dynamic Environment
Minister has done it again. A paper published by his ministry termed UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s claim on human induced
global warming, as highly exaggerated as the latter's impact is significantly
reduced by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) that is responsible for low cloud
formation over earth in the last 150 years.
The paper's lead author was U R Rao, former
chairman of Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and was released by
Jairam Ramesh himself. Analyzing the data between 1960 and 2005, Rao found that
lesser GCRs were reaching the earth due to increase in solar magnetic field and
thereby leading to increase in global warming. Says the paper:
“We conclude that the contribution to climate change due to the
change in galactic cosmic ray intensity is quite significant and needs to be
factored into the prediction of global warming and its effect on sea level
raise and weather prediction.”
The Hindustan Times further reported:
"Consequently the contribution of increased CO2 emission to be
observed global warming of 0.75 degree Celsius would only be 0.42 degree
Celsius, considerably less than what predicted by IPCC," the paper said to
be published in Indian Journal Current Science had said. This is about 44 %
less than what IPCC!
I just want to expand scientific debate on impact of non-Green House Gases on
climate change, Ramesh said, when asked whether he was again challenging the
IPCC. "Science is all about raising questions.... Climate science is much
more complex than attributing everything to CO2, said Subodh Verma, climate
change advisor in the Environment ministry."
According to the latest report by the IPCC, all
human activity, including carbon dioxide emissions, contribute 1.6 watts/sq.m
to global warming, while other factors such as solar irradiance contribute just
0.12 watts/sq.m. However, Dr. Rao's paper calculates that the effect of cosmic
rays contributes 1.1 watts/sq.m, taking the total contribution of non-human
activity factors to 1.22 watts/sq.m.
The continuing increase in solar activity has caused a 9 per cent decrease in
cosmic ray intensity over the last 150 years, which results in less cloud cover,
which in turn results in less albedo radiation being reflected back to the
space, causing an increase in the Earth's surface temperature.
While the impact of cosmic rays on climate change has been studied before, Dr.
Rao's paper quantifies their contribution to global warming and concludes that
“the future
prediction of global warming presented by IPCC's fourth report requires a
relook to take into the effect due to long term changes in the galactic cosmic
ray intensity.”
This could have serious policy implications. If human activity cannot influence
such a significant cause of climate change as cosmic rays, it could change the
kind of pressure put on countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
To the runup to the Copenhagen Climate meet, Jairam Ramesh's ministry similarly
released a paper that cock a snoot at the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)'s claim that most of the Himalayan glaciers will melt by 2035.
IMr. Ramesh had then released a report by glaciologist V.K. Raina claiming that
Himalayan glaciers are not all retreating at an alarming pace. It had been
disputed by many Western scientists, while IPCC chairman R.K. Pachauri
dismissed it as “voodoo science.” However, Dr. Raina was later vindicated by the
IPCC's own retraction of its claim that the Himalayan glaciers would melt by
2035.
Together with Climategate, leaked emails of
the Climate Research Unit of East Anglia, UK, the Himalayan Glacier error
opened the floodgates for climate sceptic attack that literally tore into tatters
the credibility of IPCC's reports so much the organization had to appoint an
external review whose recommendations it uses to currently restructure its
procedures. No wonder, Pachauri isn’t taking any chances. He promised the
Government of India that the impact of GCRs on global warming will be studied
in depth in the fifth assessment report to be published in 2013-14. In its
earlier four assessment reports, IPCC had not studied the impact of GCRs in
detail.
The Hindu further reported:
“Since then, Western Ministers have reduced talk about the glaciers to
me, they have stopped using it as frequently as a pressure point for India to
come on board,” said Mr. Ramesh."
Impact of GCRs on global warming had been highly controversial since 1998, when
Henrik Svensmark of Danish National Space Center said it was causing global
warming. A decade later a joint European study debunked the claim, saying there
was no correlation. Now the UR Rao paper has given a new life for the theory.
The real blow to the global warmist movement is when Jairam Ramesh defended
climate skepticism and cautioned against foreign funded agendas of
environmental organizations and NGOs like WWF, Greenpeace, Oxfam, Christian
Aid, ActionAid in the name of Climate Justice activism etc
“There
is a groupthink in climate science today. Anyone who raises alternative climate
theories is immediately branded as a climate atheist in an atmosphere of
climate evangelists,” he said. “Climate science is incredibly more complex than
[developed countries] negotiators make it out to be… Climate science should not
be driven by the West. We should not always be dependent on outside reports.”
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