Though there are many parameters that the
current La Niña exceeds in thresholds, the two important ones are the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) and La Niña 3.4. 21.1, the average August-December SOI
for current La Niña is exceeded only by the La Niña of 1917-18 which was 24.4.
But for the last two months, as seen from the above graph, the current La Niña
is averaging around 27 - the strongest seen on record.
values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained
negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about
+8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.]
Niño 3.4, another indicator was -1.8C last
week, only behind-2.3C in 1988, -2.1C in 1973 and -1.9C in 1988. But the
current La Niña is still to peak and may exceed these record years.
values of the Niño 3.4 above -0.5C may indicate a La Niña event,
while sustained negative values above +0.5C may indicate an El Niño event.
Values of between about +0.5C and −0.5C generally indicate neutral conditions]
Average global temperature anomaly for 2010,
a strong El Niño year, was + 0.41C, the baseline period used to determine is a
20-year (1979 to 1998) period at the beginning of the satellite record. There
is now a consensus that 2011 would be a cold year, with average global
temperature in the negative band. The only speculation is how far down will be
temperatures plunge? Would it be as 1999-2000 when it touched -0.4C or- 0.6C in
1985, where cooling was aided by the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo? A
multi-year, strongest on record La Niña gives the current one with a chance to equal
or surpass these record cold years. And because it is multi-year and sustained
cooling, it can totally erase last year’s strong El Nino warming.
Global warmist have this nasty habit of creating hysteria whenever global
temperatures spike and keeping silent when they plunge, displaying their
“character & integrity”. But 2011 is a very different ball game with
climate skeptic movement on the roll who would grab the opportunity to create
awareness that movement of temperature in either direction is part of natural
variability of the climate and not anything to do with CO2.
2009 was declared the year of the climate skeptic. The outcome of Climategate,
leaked e-mails from the Climate unit in UK that revealed collusion,
falsification of data, suppression of contrary opinion, political interference
and fraudulent scientific conclusions - that moulded public perception away
from the science. In January 2010, the IPCC was exposed for a series of errors
and making claims based on high confidence levels when in reality they had no
hard scientific evidence. These two events largely contributed to the skeptic
surge all over the world and global warming hysteria has been lying in the ICU,
terminally ill ever since. This year’s La Niña will rescue it from this misery
with global warming likely to be declared dead and cold finally.
Post a Comment