Saturday, June 11, 2011

Fear of tropical cyclone eases, but not over for Oman, Pakistan and India

Pakistan: DAWN
The depression in the Arabian Sea moving in a north-westerly direction was less dangerous than 

According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the possibility of the depression, which still persists 600km southeast of Karachi, turning into a tropical cyclone on Saturday or Sunday has decreased substantially because of a decline in the sea surface temperature and other weather conditions.
Because of this development, the department added, widespread rain with gusty winds along the Sindh coast was expected from Sunday to Tuesday and along the Balochistan coast from Monday to Wednesday.
Chief Meteorologist Mohammad Riaz Ahmad told Dawn that no coastal area was under threat of any cyclone at present. He said that although the depression over the Arabian Sea had failed to graduate to a cyclone, its existence might cause stormy rains in southern coastal strips of the country.

He said the month of June occasionally saw the rotating of a cyclone over the Arabian Sea.
“May and June have been favourable for depression and cyclone formation over the Arabian Sea. The frequency of formation of depression is particularly high in June.”
Mr Riaz said the weather variability and depression developed on June 8 was likely to last another four days.

An advisory issued by the Meteorological Department said the sea conditions had already become rough in northeastern Arabian Sea and advised fishermen in Sindh to refrain from going to the open sea till Tuesday. The fishermen of Balochistan may continue their activities till Saturday.

Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum chairman Mohammad Ali Shah said that 90 per cent of fishing boats and ships, including 500 operating in the open sea, returned to the shore on Friday evening.

Current position of AS-1 system is 19.5N and 71.5E, as on 4.0 am IST. Sat image of 9.30 am IST, could be read, and a judgement made of the current centre as 20N and 71.5E. Thats my calculation.
(This, checking on the AS-1 system seems to be going on for ever ! -:)))

The clouding shows the entire Southern periphery of the system to be enveloped. With a central core, in the clouded periphery showing very heavy rains.

As per the radar, (and as it is very very difficult to predict the movement, and the cloud movement of AS1), the entire Mumbai region, was covered by rain clouds in the morning. Subsequently, after 9.00 am, the rains advanced into the outer townships like Thane and Panvel.

Proper Mumbai should get heavy rains , at least till 11 am,(flood warning ) but outer townships, may get some extended period of rains (also warned of flooding).

Mumbai received 103 mms of rain at Colaba, most of it post Friday evening

MUSCAT: The latest satellite images show the movement of a band of medium and high clouds towards the Sultanate.

The latest surface pressure charts continue to show the presence of a tropical low pressure system in the North East Arabian Sea near the western coast of India.

According to a statement issued by the Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) yesterday, the latest numerical weather charts indicate that this low pressure will continue to move parallel to the Indian coast for the next two days with a chance of further intensification.

However, no direct influence is expected from this system on the Sultanate’s weather for the next three days, DGMAN has confirmed.

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