It started out as innocuous tropical storm
named “Keila’ by the Maldives on June 6th, and was moving towards India’s
Maharashtra-Gujarat coastal areas.
The latest surface pressure charts, satellite
images and latest reports received from the Regional Centre for Monitoring
Tropical Systems indicate the presence of a tropical low pressure system in the
North East of the Arabian Sea near the western coasts of India centred at 19 N
degrees latitude and 71.5 E degree longitude about 120 kilometres off the
coasts of India
The wind shear is very low and the sea
temperatures are above than normal. The system is near the Gujarat coast and is
moving towards North western direction at 1 knots/ hour. The affects of storm
Keila will be felt in the Sindh and Makran coast by June 10 night which could
further intensify on June 11, 2011. In India Saurashtra too will have
intermittent rainfall as Keila passes by. The winds at the Gujarat coast are
likely to be very strong over the next one week
From India, it would likely head for Oman and
hit the sultanate on Friday. as a super cyclone. Oman was hit by a powerful
cyclone, “Gonu’” in June 2007 bringing unprecedented devastation in its wake.
Another cyclone, “Phet”, with far less intensity, struck last year, also in the
month of June.
Cyclone Keila will be the first tropical
storm of 2011 North Indian Ocean cyclone season and the second tropical
depression of this Ocean after depression BOB 01. Keila is a Maldives word,
which is derived from Arabic word of Kayla, it is a female name.
"AS-1 agian changes course, shifts NE ! But seems will brush the
Saurashtra coast.
Location 18.6N and 70 E, now about 260 kms West of Mumbai. Sat. imagery shows
dense clouding to the West/South-west and SE of the centre. Pressure at 998
mb."
This blog will be
updating this post as fresh information comes in
UPDATE
Arabian Sea ‘low'
idles, but US Navy stays watchful
The well-marked low
pressure area over east-central Arabian Sea persisted even as US Navy's Joint
Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) issued a ‘cyclone formation alert' in the basin.
The JTWC ‘alert'
gets upgraded to ‘cyclone warning' if all pieces fall into place for calibrated
system intensification. Presently, it was more or less lying anchored in the
region with little forward movement.
But India
Meteorological Department (IMD) has from overnight on Thursday withdrawn the
watch for intensification of the system as a depression.
A few global models
still see its intensification as a depression/cyclone and initial movement
towards south Gujarat-Mumbai region guided apparently by a westerly trough.
It is shown as
surviving the westerly trough and once the westerly influence wanes, would
‘bounce back' off southwest Gujarat coast into the sea and drive away in a
west-northwest direction caressing the southern Pakistan coast.
The US National
Centres for Environmental Prediction and the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau
share this view while the Roundy-Albany model sticks to a track north-northeast
across south Gujarat into northwest India.
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