Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Breaking: Europe to face record cold wave: Big Pattern Change in Summer Weather

"Some of the highest temperatures ever measured in April were registered across the heart of Europe during the last week of the month. The swath of exceptional warmth stretched from Germany and Austria east to Ukraine and central Russia. Saturday to Monday, high temperatures soared to 28 to 32 degrees Celsius, or 82 to 90 Fahrenheit, which would be significantly above normal even for the height of summer.  Readings were 10 to 15 degrees C above normal for late April."
Now Joe Bastardi, ex Accuweather tweets" Huge reversal next week to heat areas in Europe possible record cold, Germany into Russia, but prob east of UK http://pic.twitter.com/WxmivqcF.

This is line with the earlier forecast of Piers Corbyn, Weather Action, read our archive: East Britain to be hit by the Coldest May in 100 years: Piers Corbyn 

“A nasty week of chill is due for much of western and central Europe as a major trough continues to hamper the efforts of the seasons to progress in a more timely aspect. April turned out to be a warmer than normal month in much of the UK, but Mother Nature has turned the cold shoulder on UK and the west as we marched into the merry month of May and temps the upcoming week are liable to average 5-10F below normal in much of the area from the UK to Spain.”

The usual culprit is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)  - just look at the ensemble mean below for May where both expected to go strongly negative:

How would such a development affect the Indian Monsoon? Like to hear your views. 

What I dug up is a following study from the net. Not sure whether it is relevant, but please do give your views.

1 comment:

  1. Actually, as per the method i rely on, the Eurasian snow in april,the far western region, is a parameter, that plays a important role in the quantum for our NW and N areas.There is a low predicted by Mark that would bring precipitation to the Central/Eastern Europe regions.The Easterly jet streams are still prevelent in our region, and with rain bearing lows around them over Eastern and SE Europe, the WDs are encouraged to move more Southwards. As a result, they "block" our required Monsoon lows from coming towards the Indian Peninsula. So, the lows, if any, move towards Banglaedash and Myanmar. I will be putting up this rainfall aspect in my seasonal forecast map today, showing our NE as excessive rain regions.