Thursday, August 4, 2011

East African Famine: Yet Another example why IPCC model is off the mark

As one climate skeptic blog noted:
"The count of failed IPCC climate model predictions being wrong is likely unprecedented in the annals of science." 
The East African famine is just one of the several confirmations of such a conclusion. The IPCC models actually predicted more rains in East Africa due to global warming:  
"More people in eastern and western Africa will be likely to experience a reduction rather than an increase in water stress (Arnell, 2006a)."
The real significance of IPCC's model predictions going awry is that this may not be an one-off famine. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has turned negative and whenever it does, historical data indicates that La Ninas tend to be more frequent and stronger than El Ninos.  This in turn implies that East Africa should experience more frequent failure of rainfall and consequently drought and famine for the next 20-30 years. This is the full import of the IPCC's model failure.

Humanitarian agencies and NGOs like Oxfam, Christian Aid; CARE Save the Children etc have been dutifully implementing "climate adaptation" programmes based on IPCC models in East African countries. The results are now obvious to all. Their so called climate adaptation programmes contributed to the spectre of mass starvation in East Africa. After accentuating the problem, these agencies have now launched famine appeals for funds! 

For India, the IPCC projected excess precipitation to the extent of a whopping 20%. However, Indian researchers (Read here) confirmed another climate model failure in regards to predicted precipitation trends across their entire country. Analyzing data from the 1901 to 2000, the researchers found that whatever global warming has taken place it has not caused an increase in mean annual rainfall.

"In light of global warming projections made by models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authors write that several scientists have suggested that mean temperature patterns in the tropics and subtropics will change in ways that will lead to noteworthy changes in rainfall patterns.

...Based on precipitation data they obtained from 1384 rain-gauge stations maintained by the India Meteorological Department...The two researchers state that for all of India, as well as for each of its four sub-regions, there was substantial inter-decadal variability of annual rainfall that could be "attributed to the inter-decadal variability of eastern equatorial Pacific SST (Niño 3) or Indian Ocean Dipole Mode, but they say that "no significant trend is discernible during the last ten decades..."

[Manish K. Joshi and A. C. Pandey 2011: Journal of Geophysical Research]

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