100Mev proton burst
has been recorded on August 4th, with ongoing high proton flux, along with
earth-facing coronal holes. Solar flares are associated with earthquakes,
volcanoes and other disasters. The Leh cloudburst occurred hours after a solar
flare. But this one is much bigger.
A 1MeV proton burst
is a massive burst and Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist and weatherman, has
predicted August 8-10 the danger period. Below is a media report about the
solar flare.
STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: For the third day in a
row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a significant M-class solar flare. The
latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of
Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most
powerful kind). The number of energetic protons around Earth has jumped nearly
100-fold as a result of this event.
The eruption propelled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. Click
on the image to view a movie of the expanding cloud recorded by the Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory:
Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two
earlier CMEs already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the
combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7
hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum
geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). The flanks of
the CME may also impact STEREO A, Mars and Mercury/MESSENGER."
High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration issued a release on what to expect when the sun impacts space
weather:
"On a summer day in 1859, a silent surge of power from a major geomagnetic
storm fueled by a solar eruption hit telegraph offices around the world,"
states the NOAA release. "Some telegraph operators got electric shocks.
Papers caught fire.
And perhaps most amazing, many telegraph systems still sent and
received signals even after operators disconnected batteries. It was as if the
very air was charged with electricity. Airline communications, GPS apps and
power grids are all reportedly vulnerable to space weather. The most common
impacts of solar flares for the average person are the glowing auroras around
the north and south poles."
A series of solar flares that erupted on the
Sun over the last three days have crossed the solar system and hit the Earth's
magnetic field on Friday afternoon.
The flares, which are backed by a small radiation storm and a spectacular
coronal mass ejection (CME), might stimulate aurorae on Friday night and could disrupt
power grids and satellites.
The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a warning for G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic
Storm as G2 (Moderate) conditions has already surpassed.
The solar flares caused some radio blackouts Wednesday and Thursday, and caused
some disruptions of high-frequency communications with airplanes flying over
the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Three solar flares erupted on the sun beginning on Tuesday, and the most
powerful electromagnetic shocks were being felt Friday by the ACE spacecraft.
The ACE spacecraft measures radiation bursts several minutes before they hit
the Earth. Real-time data from ACE is used by the Space Weather Prediction
Center to improve forecasts and warnings of solar storms.
“It is too early to know what the effects of the blasts will be. If it is a
really big storm, it still could be active Saturday night, but this kind of
disturbance level won't be sustained for long,” said Joseph Kunches, a space
weather scientist with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.
A solar flare is caused when intense burst of radiation comes from the release
of magnetic energy associated with sunspots. Flares are the solar system's
largest explosive events. A CME happens when the outer solar magnetic fields
are closed, often above sunspot groups, and the confined solar atmosphere can
suddenly and violently release bubbles of gas and magnetic fields.
While a strong solar flare increases the chance of a spectacular light show,
the electromagnetic pulse can also disrupt satellite communications, power
grids and radio traffic when it passes the Earth. Some industries that are
usually affected by solar flares include electrical power grid companies,
airlines, GPS, military and ocean shipping routes.
The strongest solar storm on record is called the “Carrington Event,” which is
named after Richard Carrington, who viewed and reported on the solar flare of
Sept. 1. It occurred in late August and early September, 1859. From Aug. 28
through Sept. 4, aurorae of unusual brilliance were observed throughout the
globe.
Tom Bogdan, director of NOAA’s space environment center, said over the next
three to five years scientists anticipate a number of these blasts will become
more frequent.
He said the next climax, called a solar maximum, was expected in 2013.
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