Neoguri is on track to become the first super typhoon of 2014 and threaten
lives and property in Japan.
Further strengthening will
occur through Monday as the typhoon progresses through an area of very warm
water and low wind shear (strong winds above the surface that can shred
tropical systems apart). Neoguri is on pace to
become the year's first super typhoon in the western Pacific Basin with maximum
sustained winds of at least 240 kph (150 mph) and life-threatening
Residents and visitors in
the path of this intensifying and dangerous typhoon should use the time now to
make the necessary preparations and heed all evacuation orders.
meteorologists expect Neoguri to be a super typhoon when it crosses the gap
between the Ryukyu Islands of Miyako Jima and Okinawa on Monday night (local
"Being right of the
storm track, Okinawa will likely see the worst impact from the storm Monday
night with rainfall rates of 50 mm (2 inches) or greater per hour at times,
sustained winds as high as 225 kph (140 mph) with occasional gusts of 290 kph
Meteorologist Evan Duffey. Westernmost parts of Okinawa, home to the United
States' Kadena Air Force Base, will be at greatest risk for the strongest and
most devastating winds.
"Quite a large storm
surge is possible over the southern Ryukyu Islands with some locations near the
center of the storm seeing a threat for storm surge in excess of six meters (20
stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Leister. The
life-threatening and devastating impacts will gradually taper off across
Okinawa on Tuesday, while conditions worsen across the Ryukyu Islands to the
After leaving Okinawa,
Neoguri will begin to turn to the northeast toward mainland Japan with landfall
on Kyushu Island anticipated for Wednesday night.
While no longer a super
typhoon, Neoguri is still expected to be a powerful typhoon when it reaches
Kyushu. Land interaction will then cause Neoguri to rapidly weaken as it
crosses Japan, but that does not mean that residents should let their guard
"Tuesday night, rain
and wind from the storm will begin reaching Kyushu Island, especially the
southern side. The strongest impacts, however, will hold off until Wednesday
and Wednesday night for southern Japan," Duffey added.
flooding rainfall and inundating storm surge will continue to bring very
dangerous conditions to the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku, including the cities
of Kagoshima and Nagasaki."
The worst of the storm
surge will target western and southern parts of Kyushu, but all coastal
communities along the southern and eastern coast of mainland Japan will experience
an increase in water levels and extremely rough surf.
Despite the typhoon
weakening, heavy rain will bring concerns for major flooding across parts of
Honshu. Mountainous locations will be most susceptible to the highest rain
Flooding may also develop
across the island of Hokkaido, even if the center of Neoguri stays well to the
south. The interaction of moisture from Neoguri and a cold front will lead to
torrential rain Thursday night through Friday.
"By the time all is
said and done, localized rainfall amounts in excess of 380 mm (15 inches) will
slam parts of Japan with the most likely locations being the Ryukyu Islands,
Kyushu, Shikoku, eastern Honshu and Hokkaido," continued Duffey.
"Wind damage will be
widespread, especially over the Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu. Port cities and
low-lying areas will be inundated by storm surge."
Tokyo is expected to escape
the worst of Neoguri but will still be soaked by some rain later in the week.
Coastal suburbs should brace for rough surf and coastal flooding.
South Korea should also
narrowly miss the brunt of Neoguri. However, the outermost rain bands of the
typhoon should still graze and drench the southern coast at midweek with
pounding surf also developing.
"The island of Jeju in
the Korea Strait will likely see the worst impacts for South Korea. With the
storm just off to the south, the island will certainly see strong winds, along
with very rough surf and heavy rain," added Duffey.
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