Friday, August 6, 2010

Will La Niña’s year long cooling make any difference to “Global Warming’s” Long Term Trend?






 - At least 3,000 people have been killed and infrastructure has been wiped out in country's northwestern Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa province that has been hit by floods and rainstorms, triggering the worst deluge in the region in eight decades. It is estimated that more than 2.5 million people desperately need help. The floods came after what meteorologists described as an "unprecedented" 30cm of rain fell in just 36 hours. Farm production in Pakistan may drop 10 percent to 15 percent because of damage caused by floods, Nasir Cheema, president of the agriculture chamber of commerce, said. The River Indus burst its banks.

- The same weather system is also responsible for flooding in bordering Afghanistan, where 65 people have died, and 61 were injured according to Abdul Matin Adrak, head of disaster management for Afghanistan.

- Thousands of families have been displaced following a chest-deep flash flood caused by heavy downpour that hit several parts of southern Philippine province of Maguindanao, the country's National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said. At least 8,200 families remain troubled by floods caused by continuous heavy rains in Sultan Kudarat town in Maguindanao provinces.
    
- Described as the country’s worst floods, it affected its northeastern and northwestern regions. At least 134 million people across 28 provinces have been impacted by the weather, which killed hundreds and cut off water supply to over 300,000 people. China's worst flooding in more than a decade may cut production of rice and cotton, analysts including Li Qiang, managing director at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., said this week.

- In its first wave, monsoon cast its spell on the entire north India with several States receiving heavy rainfall, throwing normal life out of gear. Incessant rains in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh and Uttarakhand led to disruption of movement of various trains, cancellation of flights, loss of lives and properties. Much of UP is in a state of flood like situation.

- The government declared a state of emergency because of the cold wave gripping a number of districts in 16 of the nation’s 24 regions, according to an urgent decree published. According to official figures, so far this year at least 409 people have died of pneumonia and ailments related to the cold weather, most of them younger than 5 years old (200 deaths) and over 60 years (158 deaths)

- The unusual heat has triggered a number of forest fires in Russia. Fires in central Russian regions had burned down more than 900 houses and killed at least five people, the Russian Emergencies Ministry announced. Moscow witnessed a record 37.7 degrees Celsius, the hottest in 130 years. The city is covered in smog from forest and peat fires in areas surrounding the capital. Russia's worst drought in at least 50 years has cut grain production and now threatens sowing plans for winter crops, the country's national weather centre said yesterday. Global prices for wheat shot up in anticipation of shortfall in Russia - the world’s third largest exporter.

- The United Nations said that more than 10 million hungry people across Africa's drought-stricken Sahel region need help and appealed for $230 million for impoverished Niger, which has been hardest hit. Niger, one of the poorest countries in Africa, has been most severely affected, with more than 7 million people — almost 50 per cent of the population — suffering from a lack of food, U.N. humanitarian chief John Holmes said.

- Melbourne is within reach of its longest cold snap in 14 years and so is Victoria’s capital, which will mark its longest cold stretch since 1996. The recent run of cold night weather in Perth could soon become the longest spell on record as the city shivers through its coldest June in 15 years. 
According to NOAA, El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a natural phenomenon that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean on average - 3-4 years.  It is characterised by variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean - warming or cooling known as El Niño and La Niña respectively - and air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific - the Southern Oscillation. The two variations are coupled: the warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface pressure in the west Pacific, while the cold phase, La Niña, accompanies low air surface pressure in the west Pacific.
“North America and the western Pacific are the two areas that see the greatest effects from a La Niña," Mike Pigott, a meteorologist with Accuweather Inc, Pennsylvania, said in an interview. "As things continue to develop you are likely to see more effects from this."

However, not all of these extreme events are associated with ENSO. Melbourne-based climatologist Lynette Bettio in a press interview pointed out: The developing La Niña was unlikely to have driven the heat wave in Russia or flooding in Pakistan”.
Following the rapid dissipation of the 2009/10 El Niño in early May 2010, a brief period of neutral conditions prevailed, that soon lead to a state of borderline La Niña conditions. These borderline conditions strengthened considerably during June-July and are now progressing as a basin-wide La Niña episode, expected to be formally declared anytime this month. It is important to recognize that while the state of El Niño or La Niña may be the most important factor leading to climate risk assessments in many regions, climate extremes may also develop because of ocean/atmosphere interactions outside of the tropical Pacific domain.

The popular climate sceptic blog, Watts Up With That? who broke the story, promised to make this their headline story for the next few days.



The legendary master weatherman, astrophysicist and leading climate sceptic, Piers Corbyn, attributed some of the recent extreme events to Coronal Holes or areas where the Sun's corona is darker, colder, and has lower-density plasma than average. Coronal holes are linked to unipolar concentrations of open magnetic field lines. The fast-moving component of the solar wind is known to travel along open magnetic field lines that pass through coronal holes. Not only did Piers Corbyn predict these events in advance but also as usual, he hit the bulls-eye. Here’s extracts from his latest weather bulletin:
“We specifically predicted the heatwaves and thunderfloods for much of Europe & West Russia (see http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No28.pdf) and our current Euromaps forecast – via http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp shows that heatwaves and hot weather in much of Russia will largely continue to mid-August and then sharply decrease and end completely - turning cool - in the last week of August. The change in solar-magnetic lunar state and corresponding shifts in the jet stream and Total Weather State of the world around mid-August will, we expect, also end the super-intense monsoon rains in Pakistan.

These extreme weather situations and events - which happen simultaneously around the world - are driven by events on the sun in our predicted Solar Lunar Action periods (SLAPs). This weather - and climate change - are entirely driven by Solar-Magnetic Lunar effects and are nothing to do with CO2. Heat waves in Russia and floods in India/Pakistan and England happened in similar solar-magnetic-lunar states about 132 years prior to current/ recent episodes of similar solar-magnetic (6X22=132yrs) & eclipse (7x19=133) cycles. [NB China not same]”
How Strong will be the La Niña?

Though climatologists tell us that each La Niña is different, it does not stop the speculation whether it can turn out be a strong or a weak one. The reasons fueling these speculations this time arise from the unique behaviour of the current La Niña formation.

It is to be kept in mind that the potential predictability for this climate oscillation is not known. Some climate simulation models produce PDO-like oscillations, which has a chequered record. Nonetheless given here is the analysis of some of these climate simulation models.

Normally there is time lag between the decline of El Niño and the onset of La Niña. This time according to Dr. Michael Mann, this had been the fastest transition from El Niño to La Niña in the entire recorded history. (Mann was incidentally the creator of the infamous ‘hockey-stick graph’ that was used by the IPCC to be flaunted as the foundation to the global warming theory, but later was exposed as a fraud). This fact alone was responsible for stimulating all kind of speculations about the coming La Niña’s intensity whether it could be one of the strongest in recorded history.


As seen in the graph, the upper-ocean heat content increased sharply during October 2009 in association with the strengthening of El Niño.  The anomalies decreased beginning in late February 2010 becoming negative by late April.  The large negative anomalies during June and July are consistent with a developing La Niña.

The Southern Oscillation Index, (SOI) compares surface pressure over Darwin Australia with pressure over Tahiti. If this value is negative for an extended period of time it indicates average, surface pressure is lower over Tahiti and higher over Darwin. Positive values over longer times indicate La Niña. The greater the negative or positive value, the stronger the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) configuration (be it El Niño or La Niña).

The Australian Met Department confirmed a spectacular SOI Index jump that increased in value to 21. This is significantly up from a five-month running mean of 7, centred on May. The SOI, which has been positive since April, is at its highest monthly point since February 2008. Sustained positive values of the SOI above 8 indicates a La Niña event and its current 21 value indicates a possible very deep sized La Niña  episode in the offing. However, we need to wait the coming weeks and months to confirm whether this early SOI advance is maintained or retreats. However, given its historical trend, one would expect it to only strengthen even further.

According to NOAA, the latest weekly (ending 28th July) Surface Sea Temperatures (SST) departures are:

Niño 4         -0.8ºC                                                                                     
Niño 3.4      -1.3ºC
Niño 3         -1.4ºC
Niño 1+2     -1.9ºC

As seen in NOAA’s weekly SST departures, these numbers are much bigger anomalies than the last El Niño, giving rise to suspicions that this could be a much bigger La Niña than a -1.8ºC which is 4/10's deeper than the 2008 La Niña and 2/10's deeper than the 2000 La Niña.

In addition, the sea surface temperature (SST) varies much more slowly than atmospheric temperatures due to the heat capacity of water. As such, the SSTs lag the atmospheric temperatures on a seasonal timescale by about 3 months. Since La Niña formation began in May, a lag of 3 months means that from August we should start seeing a drastic drop in global average temperature anomalies. The cooling effect of the La Niña from now accordingly becomes increasingly visible. This is particularly so if we additionally factor in Piers Corbyn’s prediction (assuming it accurate) that heat waves in the Northern Hemisphere would also greatly abate by end of August; the Southern Hemisphere already cool.  



The NINO3.4 index is yet another of several El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators based on sea surface temperatures. NINO3.4 is the average sea surface temperature anomaly in the region bounded by 5°N to 5°S, from 170°W to 120°W. This region has large variability on El Niño or La Niña time scales, and is close to the region where changes in local sea-surface temperature are important for shifting the large region of rainfall typically located in the far western Pacific. 

An El Niño or La Niña event is identified if the 5-month running-average of the NINO3.4 index exceeds +0.4°C for El Niño or -0.4°C for La Niña for at least 6 consecutive months. As seen from the graph, NINO3.4 index is a whooping -1.3°C in less than 3 months, providing yet another indicator that suggests that it could be a big and deep La Niña season in the offing.


Dr. Roy Spencer, an extremely renowned astro-physicist and climatologist, who published the above SST graph, noted,
“The cooling in the Nino34 region in the tropical east Pacific continue to be well ahead of the cooling in the global average SST, something we did not see during the 2007-08 La Niña event.” 
This implies that the pace of cooling in the in the Nino34 region is extremely rapid, not normally seen, and sooner than later will drag the global average SST with it. Of particular interest are the sub surface temperatures in of the Pacific showing a large area 5°C under normal, which is one of the reasons for some to conjecture a Super La Niña. 



So how real are these expectations of a Super La Niña? David Hagen a climatologist helps us by shedding some light. 
The rate of decline for Nino 3.4 is particularly remarkable, at about 5 K/decade. This appears faster than all the declines since 2002.” 
However, by plotting the above graph he illustrates that the current La Niña though likely to be the strongest for this decade, still fall far short of the strength displayed by 1998-01 La Niña or the Super La Niña of 1973. Nevertheless, these are early days since the La Niña is still in formation and may surprise one and all of its eventual strength.
On the other hand, the two super La Niñas in the recorded history both produced annual average temperature drops in excess of 3°C took almost 3 years to fully realise it. However, majority of statistical and dynamical models predict the current La Niña to be much shorter live.  Almost all models forecasting negative SST anomalies extending through to the end of the year and lasting of La Niña residual conditions until middle of next year. Probabilistic predictions from the consolidated forecast indicate a high likelihood of development of a La Niña winter as it coincides with the period of its largest potential impact. It also suggests that there perhaps may not be much of summer in the Northern Hemisphere next year. For those in the Southern Hemisphere, 2011 could be the start of milder summers in the coming years.





The forecast of ENSO from various statistical and dynamical models are consolidated by IRI as above. Since Nino3.4 SST anomaly has already crossed -1.3°C , only a handful of forecasts within the shaded portions values as of date conforms to observed values of the current La Niña development viz. these are all forecasts all tending to indicate a big sized La Niña.  


On the other hand, it is interesting to find similar consolidated forecasts by Climate Forecasting System (CFS) of NOAA actually showing a few forecasts that goes below -3°C - ranges of a super La Niña. However, these could be possibly only projections of worst-case scenarios. Lowest SSTs are usually observed in early spring and the highest SST anomalies in early autumn. However, notice in this case La Niña is forecasted to mostly peak around December. These forecasts additionally mostly project SST anomalies to be within the negative band even to next April and beyond that too.  There exists a deep layer of below normal oceanic temperatures, extending from the surface to 250 meters depth throughout the Eastern Pacific, making it highly unlikely for SST anomalies to return to positive values by next summer.

These forecasts, their poor record of reliability aside, collectively suggest high probability for a severe winter and one where year 2011 is likely to be one of the coldest in recorded history. 




The data displayed in this map provides the weekly average STTs as on 3rd August. In tropical regions, STTs of a value greater than 26°C are considered suitable for formation of tropical cyclones. The SST world map accordingly suggests that this period continues to display a high vulnerability to tropical cyclone formations in areas as shaded from orange to dark brown.


The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is the difference between the observed SST and the climatological SST. These anomalies are also calculated on a weekly basis, given their dynamic character.  Positive SSTAs are usually correlated with increased regions of convection (cloudiness and rainfall) while negative SSTAs are usually correlated to reduced convection. It suggests at least during this week, we can expect the monsoon to reduce in its intensity for areas ranging from Africa to SE Asia, including S Asia. This means that we probably will not see at least this week, the likes of 35% above normal rains seen during the last week of July over India.

Will La Niña’s year long cooling make any difference to Global Warming’s Long Term Trend?

The warmist argument is that even if we have a major La Niña, it really matters very little in the end.  A deep La Niña will affect global temperature for a year or two at most and not much more, leaving global warming’s long-term trend unaffected. This is often based on the argument that La Niña gives the oceans a chance to "re-charge" since there is less heat loss. The result is that temperatures will ultimately bounce back. La Niña 1998/ 2001, when there was a long deep La Niña phase, excellently illustrates this behaviour. Their confidence additionally stems from most models of global warming, which predict not a steady climb in temperature, but higher average readings over time — and more record-breaking peaks than valleys.

The problem with this type of reasoning is that though temperatures did eventually bounced back, it lost its acceleration steam and the net result was the absence of any statistically significant warming over this decade. Further, a lack of statistically significant warming can also be looked as a prelude to a reversal to a cooling phase - a kind of a transition phase. 


Moreover, the reason why temperatures recovered after La Niña 1998/2001 was mainly that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was positive. The PDO is a multi- decadal natural oscillation of the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature and pressure. Indeed, since 1977, the PDO was positive as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index or MEI. We had shifted back into the cold mode in the late 1990s but a strong second solar maximum and a flurry of El Niños caused a bounce in the PDO again in the early 2000s. However, as the graph below indicates it appears to be strongly negative again since 2005, which should reinforce the intensity of La Niña now in progress




A positive MEI is one greater than 0.5 standard deviation and leads to El Niños, while a negative MEI in excess of -0.5 leads to La Niñas. As the following plot of the MEI shows, since 1977, El Niños have dominated over La Niña during a positive phase PDO. A warm mode of the PDO favours warm water in the ENSO region of the eastern tropical Pacific that encourages El Niños during this phase of the PDO. Similarly, a cool mode of the PDO favours cool waters in the ENSO region, encouraging La Niñas as seen in the table below.




Ingrid Ldeo in a paper compared the two climatic phenomena - ENSO and PDO: 
“The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. While the two climate oscillations have similar spatial climate fingerprints, they have very different behavior in time. Fisheries scientist Steven Hare coined the term "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) in 1996 while researching connections between Alaska salmon production cycles and Pacific climate (his dissertation topic with advisor Robert Francis). Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO "events" persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO.

Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: "cool" PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while "warm" PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Shoshiro Minobe has shown that 20th century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities, one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years.”
The PDO switches alternatively between cold and warm mode once every 25-30 years and has only recently switched back to a negative mode. Assuming that its effect will be similar to history, global climates can be expected to cool over the next 25-30 years.  This is the reason why even some of the most prominent IPCC scientists like Mojib Latif, Prof Tsonis, William Gray and several more predicted the next 20-30 years as a cooling phase. Read here and here. Consequently, for the next 20-30 years, we can expect La Niñas to not only to display a greater frequency than El Niños but also a greater intensity of cooling. A vicious cycle is created - La Niñas reinforcing a cool PDO, which in turn reinforces La Niñas formation. This cycle continues until oceans sufficiently ‘re-charges’ to switch back once again into a positive phase.




In fact, the solar cycle appears a more important player than the PDO itself. As seen from the graph, for the period 1977-2001, solar irradiance (brightness summed across all wavelengths) and solar radio emissions had been unusually high correlating with warming the globe had experience. The sunspot average from 1900 to 1949 was 576 annually, and from 1950-1999 it was 876, an increase of 52%.Then came the slide, where sun activity became so quiet that it began to startle NASA who in an article commented the following:
 
“The sunspot cycle is behaving a little like the stock market. Just when you think it has hit bottom, it goes even lower. 2008 was a bear. There were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days: plot. Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008.

Maybe not. Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%). It adds up to one inescapable conclusion:

"We're experiencing a very deep solar minimum," says solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees sunspot expert David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Centre.”






Solar activity comes in regular cycles, but the latest one is still refuses to start until very recently. Sunspots have all but vanished, and solar activity continues to be very quiet. The last time this happened was 400 years ago and it signaled a solar event known as a "Maunder Minimum," along with the start of what is now call the "Little Ice Age."

Pesnell however believes sunspot counts will pick up again soon, "possibly by the end of 2009 to be followed by a solar maximum of below-average intensity in 2012 or 2013”. Sunspots did rise briefly but collapsed once again. No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle. Except perhaps Piers Corbyn, the man described as making money out of sunspots through his company, Weather Action. He cooks a snook at climate alarmists by using a cheap scientific calculator for his calculations instead of super computers used by IPCC scientists and UK Met Office. The results tell their own story - Corbyn’s strike rate is over 85% while the latter’s often zero. His Solar Weather Technique combines statistical analysis of over a century of historical weather patterns with clues derived from solar observations. He uses a system of rules that tells you where to look in the past for relevant data, for similar weather patterns.

What we know is that during protracted periods of high sunspot activity, such as occurred in the Medieval Warm Period and the latter half of the last century, global temperatures rose. During the low points in sunspot activity, such as in the Little Ice Age, temperatures declined. The graphic below, prepared by Professor Don Easterbook, Western Washington University for his brilliant paper “Looming Threat of Global Cooling”, clearly establishes the correlation between global cooling and low solar irradiance and sunspots.



New research, by Robert Hodges and Jim Elsner of Florida State University, looked at the frequency of hurricanes and sunspots from 1851 to 2008 during the Sun’s 11-year cycles. During periods of low sunspot activity, the researchers discovered, the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting the United States increases dramatically. With fewer sunspots, there’s less energy at the top of the atmosphere, making for a cooler atmosphere above the hurricane. This differential fuels atmospheric instability, propelling tropical storms into hurricanes.

According to Antony Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.

The End of Climate Alarmism Soon




The Climate debate is poised for closure soon. This will not be based on solidity of theories or widening scientific consensus but simply because more and more people will realize that climate alarmism is in total variance with observed values. It is bad enough to reconcile to the fact that global warming, as we think we know it, does not exist. Imagine the people’s wrath when they discover that they actually face a looming threat of global cooling.

As history tells us, warming periods in earth's history have been ones where humankind has largely prospered due to higher crop yields. Cooling periods are the ones where humankind has historically suffered, from lower crop yields, hunger, disease and population decline.  The Little Ice Age — actually three distinct cooling periods — chilled northern Europe and parts of the United States. It sent the Vikings scurrying back to Europe from their temporary colonization of Greenland. Glaciers invaded much of Norway and crop failures around Europe caused famines and spikes in grain prices. In 1816, New England experienced its "year without summer," when crops failed.

What is happening right now signals a similar drastic shift in the Earth's climate where we will likely to see drops in temperature in the coming years. This is because various natural climatic forces including the La Niña, PDO, solar activities etc are converging to bring about such a temperature dip. Russ Steele in his blog NC Media Watch describes such a convergence effect in the recent past that holds parallels for today:
“The last time Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano blew, the eruption lasted more than a year, from December 1821 until January 1823, according geologist at the Smithsonian Institution. It is interesting to note that 1821-1823 was the tail-end of the Dalton Minimum, falling in the minimum between the end of Sunspot Cycle Six and the start of Cycle Seven. Similar to the sunspot trough between Cycle 23 and 24 which we are currently observing.  During the Dalton Minimum Europe experienced some very brutal winters and cool summers” 


How deep will this change in climate be? Nobody knows for certain, but we know with more certainty that the warming phase of the world is over, and will not raise its head for another 20-30 years the very least.

Even a small negative temperature swing can trigger huge food production shortfalls affecting temperate regions including US, Canada, Russia, Ukraine and China - all-important global food production regions. We know from historical records that during solar minima, in these regions, the growth seasons were reduced, less sunshine were received and more rainfall fell during summers. Renowned environmentalist scientist Peter Taylor explains:
“If that were not bad enough, we know from historical records that during these solar cold snaps, the monsoons over the Indian subcontinent were reduced and in some cases, completely failed. This effect is simultaneously affecting all monsoon activity regions in the tropics. Lower temperatures results in less water vapour in the atmosphere, leading to lesser rains. This reduction in rainfall does not start immediately. Instead it first manifests when the air and water temperature over the Pacific and over the Indian Ocean have dropped as the world cools. This is not a large drop in temperature, but still tends to lower the amount of water vapour in the tropics, which then cause drop in rainfalls. The reduction in the monsoons is more common when the temperature is at the lowest point during solar minima. It is also in effect when the temperature rebounds and the earth starts the warm up again at the end of the solar minima when the Sun once again becomes more active.

Therefore, what likely will happen is that first the food production in the food baskets of North America and Eurasia will be reduced. Then this is followed by a reduction of the harvests in the tropics, in countries like India, China and Brazil 5 to 10 years later, while at the same time the food production in the temperate regions of the World will continue to stay low.”
The problem with being a one-issue movement is it only takes a single game changer to bring everything to a standstill. What will such a scenario cost the environmental and NGO sector that jumped on the gravy train of global warming, seeing this way forward to increase funding. Their staff latched on to the scam seeing this as a ticket for their career progression and the huge pay check and perks that it brought along. Then there is fame element above all. Boy they loved all the media attention and what all this did to their public profile. After all, what can be more effective PR than to help saving the world by informing the world of the dangers of dangerous global warming?

If scientists massaged temperature data, to further their case, these environmental and NGOs outbeat them through their alarmist communications. They like the scientists began adopting assumptions of fudge relationships and projected them into as scientific proven facts. Their involvement in the issue led to the birth of apocalyptic environmentalism whose impact almost irreversibly damaged the long-term credibility of both environmental organizations and NGOs. And without credibility can we have effective advocacy? 

These huge costs to their credibility and public faith could have all been avoided only if they heeded to the caution of Michael Griffin, the administrator of NASA:
I have no doubt that … a trend of global warming exists. I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with. To assume that it is a problem is to assume that the state of Earth’s climate today is the optimal climate, the best climate that we could have or ever have had and that we need to take steps to make sure that it doesn’t change.

First of all, I don’t think it’s within the power of human beings to assure that the climate does not change, as millions of years of history have show. And second of all, I guess I would ask which human beings—where and when—are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now is the best climate for all other human beings. I think that’s a rather arrogant position for people to take” (May 31, 2007).”

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Six Months after Copenhagen: Climate Justice Movement is crumbling faster than a summer snowflake





"Time is Running Out” was the catchphrase of environmentalists and international NGOs (INGOs) during the run-up to the Copenhagen Climate meet last December. Do they continue to believe in the frenzy they whipped up six months on?

To have an insight, we visited some of the websites of leading environmental organizations and international NGOs. We selected among others, WWF, Greenpeace, Christian Aid and Oxfam who led some of the most high decibel campaigns using this catchphrase.

Christian Aid and other Christian agencies to the run-up to Copenhagen additionally walked away with the prize for best theatrics by constructing a mock grave stone declaring 'Climate change-a matter of life or death' outside the ruins of Coventry Cathedral, England. Organizers Christian Aid, CAFOD and others later took part in a New Orleans style funeral through the streets of Coventry.

We assumed that if it was thought so dire urgent six months ago, surely there should be sense of even more desperate exigency now. That unfortunately is not what we found. The issue in fact was not in their radar at all. WWF website focused on saving the Bengal Tiger, Greenpeace on stopping another Bhopal, Christian Aid and Oxfam’s on West Africa’s Food Crisis! Search as you like, but you will not find climate change any where as one of their highlighted list of priorities of their website.

So we ask again, do these environmental organizations and international NGOs really believe that “Time is running out” for Planet Earth? We leave you to draw your own conclusions.

When Copenhagen talks failed, NGOs and environmental activists put on a brave front as a blog records their defiant public declaration
“More than 250 partner organisations have come together to form an unprecedented alliance under the TckTckTck banner – including development, human rights, environment, religious and youth groups, trade unions and scout groups... In Copenhagen on December 12, one hundred thousand people marched in a powerful manifestation of this unity...The global climate movement - more diverse than ever before - stands united in the face of tonight's disappointing news.” 
Well we found that this facade has all but collapsed. As long as any social or environmental movement is able to sustain its capacity for collective mobilization, it survives and grows. However, repeated body blows struck on the science of global warming, starting from the Climategate scandal and the overnight collapse of IPCC’s credibility has apparently sucked out all the air of the movement. Fast evaporation of public support including of those by the media for the cause also prompts most to apparently place the issue on the backburner. However, a minority within the movement was found still reflecting a continued priority for climate change.

Placing climate change on the backburner of their websites does not necessarily mean that these organizations have dropped climate change as an activity focus. It only means that they go on stealthily. A glance of the websites of NGO job openings will confirm that vacancies of their climate change department are still being filled on a business as usual pace. So are the workshops and seminars attempting to indoctrinate NGO workers and public. What has visibly dropped in terms of frequencies are NGOs releasing statements at their drop of their hats, linking climate change as the cause for each and every natural disaster though disasters themselves are on the increase being a La Nina year. For the first time, even the recently concluded G20 meeting dropped direct reference to climate change and renewable energy, which gives an insight to how far the issue has been discredited that even politicians like Obama who championed the cause are fighting shy of even acknowledging climate change as a pressing issue confronting the world.





Sydney Tarrow in his bestseller, “The Sociology of Social Movements” remarked that social movements go through 
"cycles of protest” and have to keep radicalizing in order to gain more support; the radicalization in turn could lead to a loss of support."
This observation could turn prophetic to the Climate Change movement. We detect a small emerging trend of increasing radicalization as exampled by Greenpeace activists shutting down 50 gas stations all over London last week to protest ostensibly against BP’s oil spill. However, this act of vandalism also is tightly aligned also with their climate change agenda to eliminate usage of fossil fuels. By inconveniencing commuters, Greenpeace only succeeded in further accentuating the already dwindling public support for their cause as media reports suggests.

We additionally searched for any significant differences between those who overtly kept the issue on the backburner and those who still aggressively forefronted this. What we found was that the backburners mainly tended to be constituted by those who supported carbon trading while the forefronters tended to be those ideologically opposed to it. The rout of their science apparently opened up serious divisions within the formerly closed ranks of the climate campaign. So fundamental is the divide that it appears that an internecine conflict has broken out between the two factions.



Last week, in a protest against carbon trading as a method for acting on climate change, the public website of the European Climate Exchange (ECX), the leading marketplace for trading CO2 emissions in Europe, was hacked allegedly by a coalition that included Earth First and Climate Justice Action.

The ECX website was taken offline. It was replaced with a message (above) in an effort to try to raise awareness about carbon trading as a dangerous false solution to the climate crisis, in support of the grassroots activists, aiming to oppose the power structures and companies profiteering from the dysfunctional Cap & Trade scheme. The hacked page also shows the embedded video of The Story of Cap and Trade, anchored by Annie Leonard.



Leonard is no stranger to South Asia as she worked as a Greenpeace staffer during the nineties heading their anti-toxic dumping campaign. She in fact testified to the US Congress on the topic of international waste trafficking.  I remember a chance encounter with her in Bangladesh where I was attending a Sustainable Agriculture Policy workshop. She recounted the tale of a US firm passing off toxic wastes as fertilizer aid to innocent, unsuspecting Bangladeshi farmers and the horrendous consequences it created. She completely mesmerized workshop participants through her communications wizardry so much so that it was no surprise that there was a virtual stampede in the end of her presentation to sign up for the cause!
Her knack for explaining environmental issues in a simple and entertaining manner saw her producing a series of short powerful videos - “The Story of Stuff”, “The Story of Cosmetics” and “The Story of Bottled Water”. “The Story of Cap and Trade” is one in this series and perhaps has become the most embarrassing to those within the Climate Justice Movement who support cap and trade. Earlier, in 2009, Friends of the Earth (FoE) UK released a report warning that carbon trading could trigger a second ‘sub-prime’ style financial collapse and fail to protect the world from global warming catastrophe. A copy of the full report, ‘A Dangerous Obsession’, is available at: http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/dangerous_obsession.pdf.

People’s struggles are inspired essentially from strong beliefs to oppose what is perceived as unjust or iniquitous in society. Consequently, conviction to a cause arises from a belief that one’s cause is fundamentally a just cause and that the awakening of one’s conscience needs to be channelled to strive for change in order to remedy a perceived societal injustice. This is what Annie Leonard’s video exactly succeeded in undermining. It was a harsh indictment, no matter how cleverly disguised, of those environmental organizations and NGOs supporting carbon trading, who she bared as virtually supporting a big business financial fraud whose bill is finally paid by the poorest in the world! In short, it left the overwhelming majority of the movement with the stigma of being pro-rich and anti-poor by their support to carbon trading.

Over the years, the Climate Change Movement successfully co-opted the more matured Social Justice Movement within its folds. Now with their bus on fire and totally discredited, the likes of Annie Leonard and FoE have fired the first salvo. They implicitly warn that if the Climate Change Movement hopes to survive then the only way the fire can be doused is to get on the social justice bus to heal wounds, because in the end, there could be only one bus to travel.

The Climate Change Movement had never been a monolithic  entity and more accurately described as an umbrella organization which has under it a vast array of institutional forms—individuals, small NGOs, large organizations, corporate groups, etc. representing the entire gamut of social and political opinion. In fact, a majority of those involved are not even active in any movements. A good many within the movement despite their public pretensions, do not even really understand climate science, in fact do not understand any science at all, leave alone physics which is a must to understand climatology.  They joined the movement only because they thought it was the hip thing to do. A small section even consider the whole hullaballoo of global warming  unscientific but continue to offer lip service only because they think it is the most politically correct thing to do. No longer. What hurts most of the so- Climate Change movement are the growing mass desertions within their ranks, which saps the vitality of the movement. 

 You can't control a monster by asking it not to shit as much... or by proposing to buy its shit"


One of the most high profile defections last week was by physicist Dr. Denis Rancourt, a former professor and environmental science researcher at the University of Ottawa. Rancourt has published over 100 articles in peer reviewed scientific journals. While a recognized expert in a number of scientific fields, he is particularly known for his unconventional and controversial pedagogical approach and activism directed at the hierarchical structure of universities. Heavily influenced by the works of Paulo Freire and Schmidt, Rancourt has strongly argued for critical pedagogy aimed at confronting all sources of oppression. Watch the video and consider some of the quotes transcript by Climate Depot.
"It is as much psychological and social phenomenon as anything else. “Global warming is strictly an imaginary problem of the First World middle-class. When I tell environmental activists that global warming is not something to be concerned about, they attack me — they shun me, they do not allow me to have my materials published in their magazines” (Nice “peer review” process, huh–walk the party line or no peer review). “They look for comfortable lies that they can settle into and alleviate the guilt they feel about being on privileged end of the planet — a kind of survivors guilt.

We see this sort of guilt a lot in the West, especially in America. We have such incredible affluence compared to the rest of the world, and we have attained it with such incredible ease, that many people without a solid moral and philosophical grounding feel vaguely guilty for having so much. Not being sure they are legitimately entitled to it, they opt for self-flagellating guilt mongering…while remaining generally unwilling to give up all those modern comforts they feel so guilty about. The process of self-flagellating and America-hatred purges enough of the guilt to allow them to continue enjoying these modern conveniences without the burden of guilt.

It's not about opinion politics. It's about not being scammed. It's not about education. It's about independent thinking. It's not about peer-review. It's about the class politics of science. It's not about being oppressed fairly. It's about liberation.”
Given the plurality and diversity within, the Climate Change Movement is not a monolithic animal as commonly portrayed. This inevitably leads to widespread ignorance and reductionism within the movement. World Vision’s boss Tim Costello best illustrates such ignorance when last year he claimed that Tsunamis are a result of climate change though all scientific knowledge points that it is triggered by a geological phenomenon – earthquakes. Some of the ardent climate activists I have met were shocked to learn that apart from Tsunamis even volcanic eruptions have no links to global warming.

Reductionism on the other hand is an approach to building descriptions of systems out of the descriptions of the subsystems that a system is composed of, and ignoring the relationships between them. A draft circulated of the India Disasters Report 2010, a NGO publication, observed the following: 
“The floods in Mumbai and Rajasthan in 2005 and 2006 respectively are indications of things to come. In Mumbai, the rains were so intense that they paralyzed the city. Santa Cruz area received about 944 mm rain on a single day. This is a little less than half of the annual rainfall that Mumbai gets on an average. The following year, some desert villages of Barmer in Rajasthan recorded 577 mm rain in three days— more than double the annual average. It rained so heavily here that it changed village landscapes”
This serves an excellent example of reductionist thinking - linking of rains with floods in a rather simplistic analysis. In the case of Mumbai what the analysis did not capture were the freak nature of rains, being a cloudburst, which combined with unusually high tides that led to unprecedented flooding in Mumbai. In the case of Barmer, a town in Thar Desert, in Western Rajasthan, what the analysis did not factor in was that rainfall pattern increasing in the area due to natural variability of the Indian monsoons and further due to bentonite and gypsite deposits in the area that makes the soil impervious, increasing vulnerability for waterlogging conditions. Barmer was flooded again this Monsoons.

Let us take another example from the draft report: 
“Internationally, March 2009 became the hottest month recorded. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for March 2010 was the warmest on record at 13.5°C (56.3°F), which is 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F).”
The Centre for Science & Environment (CSE), India’s premier environmental body who position themselves as promoting knowledge based environmental activism had made a similar claim a few months ago linking the heat wave in India as an outcome of climate change. What both had suppressed was heat waves are common in India in an El Nino year. The duplicity of climate activists stands exposed when they make loud noises when temperatures go up and remain mum when there is a severe cold wave as it occurred in Northern India last winter. This reflects on their character, integrity and accordingly their public credibility. According to Transparency International, such duplicity amounts to corruption according to their definition of the term!

Exposure of this corruption will come to a head soon. With the La Nina formation anytime in August, global temperature could be expected to plunge below its long-term average around the time the world meets at Cancun for the next Climate Treaty meet. If this is not embarrassing enough, consider the possibility of a super La Nina that could see the whole of Northern Hemisphere without a summer in 2011 as well as one of the worst winters. This could well be a big if, though all meteorological bodies in the world are predicting a big sized La Nina this year. Whatever its size, one thing is clear. For the near future, global temperatures are destined to be cool. This means humiliation for climate change activism and NGOs and environmentalist organizations should be prepared to display humility to make a public apology that they were misled on this issue. It will take a public apology to stem the decline in their advocacy programmes.

So the question is, do they have this humility?