Indonesian Earthquake advance predicted by Piers Corbyn, British Weatherman, and Climatic Sceptic

Dr Piers Richard Corbyn is an astrophysicist and founder of the business Weather Action which makes weather forecasts up to a year in advance, and on which he also bets, and wins 80% of the times.

Corbyn's predictions are based on what is called "The Solar Weather Technique." The technique combines statistical analysis of over a century of historical weather patterns with clues derived from solar observations.  He considers past weather patterns and solar observations and sun-earth magnetic connectivity. Conventional meteorology claims that such influences cause minimal impact on the Earth's atmosphere. Corbyn is also sceptical of the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming. In fact, he is one of the leading climate sceptic scientists in the world.

Piers Corbyn asserts that earthquakes can be triggered by solar activity, and hence that he can to some extent predict them. So he started a trial forecast and here’s one published in March for April this year:

Piers Corbyn once again predicted a high probability of a strong earthquake in the northern hemisphere a couple of days before the Indonesian earthquake happened as evident from his tweet of Apr 9th 2012, 2:22 AM EDT:

Impressive Coronal Holes moving to centre of solar disc for April 9th as we predicted. Coronal holes image is for 8th which means the biggest one will be Earth-Facing (EF) on 9th, the middle of our 8-10th period.

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?day=09&month=04&year=2012&view=view

Note the official forecasts say to expect solar wind from these holes to hit Earth ~12-13th. This may be true but our work shows the important time for (earlier) influences giving Earthquakes is when the holes are EF, give or take a day.

The point is that earthquake probability is increased when a coronal hole is facing the earth, suggesting maybe an electromagnetic connection. As seen Corbyn predicted that the period April 8 to 10 (give or take a day) would be the timeframe that a large earthquake could strike somewhere along the Pacific ring in the Northern Hemisphere. This prediction was put out to the public back in March, and now brilliantly confirmed.  True that Corbyn did not predict it will hit Indonesia. But “Pacific ring, Northern Hemisphere” is a good broad enough prediction. It has to kept in mind Corbyn’s main profession is to predict the weather not earthquakes. Secondly, it was a trial forecast and when the model gets standardized it will probably be able to predict where the coronal hole of the sun could trigger an earthquake with greater precision.

If you think all this science fiction, here’s a ZeeNews report that suggest otherwise:

Scientists had expected Indonesia quake

Courtesy: ZeeNews

Scientists had been expecting Wednesday's great earthquake off Sumatra but it occurred a little sooner, according to Arun Bapat, an Indian seismologist in Pune.

Bapat is one of the associate scientists of the newly formed International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC) based in Orlando, Florida in the United States. 

Asked why the IEVPC failed to predict Wednesday's 8.6 Richter earthquake that triggered tsunami fears in Indian Ocean countries, Bapat said they did suspect an impending quake on April 5 itself.

In an email to IANS Bapat said: "We were expecting occurrence of a large magnitude earthquake in Indonesia…. We were debating it and the expected time window was about 10 to 15 days." But it has occurred earlier, he said.

Bapat said he sensed the possible occurrence of the earthquake first on March 21 itself after having observed the satellite picture of the Total Electron Content (TEC). The TEC is the total number of electrons present between any two points in the Earth's ionosphere and is measured as the number of electrons per square meter.

"I kept thinking," Bapat said. "Subsequently on April 5 I had two more satellite photos of TEC. We have been monitoring the TEC every day. We get inputs from Russia."

According to Bapat, it is known that there is a statistical association between large earthquakes and TEC anomalies as changes in the electron concentration occur a few days before earthquake. "It was found during the recent Tohoku (Fukushima) Japan earthquake that the TEC had increased very high," Bapat said. It was about three to four times the normal electron concentration. 

Similarly, Kyushu earthquake of March 20, 2005 (M = 6.6) had revealed an earthquake-associated TEC anomaly 11 days before that quake. 

Bapat said that from the TEC pictures he obtained (on March 21 and April 5) "it would be seen that the area of potential earthquake epicentre had very high concentration of electrons", suggesting that the Sumatra earthquake was imminent. However, the earthquake came before any warning could be issued. 

According to Bapat, the IEVPC warned earlier this week that a major earthquake and possible tsunami will strike Kamchatka Peninsula of Russia between now and the end of June 2012.

Rapid Reaction: Indonesian earthquake and tsunami warning – experts respond

Courtesy: Aussmc

According to the US Geological Survey, a magnitude 8.6 earthquake has struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia at 6:38pm tonight AEST. For more information see the US Geological Survey website. Below seismologists and tsunami experts from Australia, America and the UK respond. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre has a warning in place. The Australian Tsunami Warning Centre has not issued any warnings for Australia at this stage.

Kevin McCue is an adjunct professor at CQUniversity, President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society and Director of the Australian Seismological Centre.

“According to the USGS website the magnitude 8.7 earthquake occurred well offshore, at least 300 km west of Sumatra so the damage onshore on Sumatra is likely to be minimal. The magnitude may well be decrease to 8.5 or 8.4 after more analysis. The epicentre is well west of the plate boundary and in the Indian Ocean, a fracture along the hinge where the subducting slab of oceanic crust starts bending downward and under Sumatra.

The mechanism seems to have been predominantly strike-slip ie no substantial vertical displacement of the sea floor so any tsunami would be small and local.”

Professor James Goff is Director of the Australia-Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Laboratory, University of New South Wales.Note that Professor Goff is currently in the Cook Islands and so has limited availability for interviews.

“Like everyone else who just heard this news, we are now waiting to see what comes to pass. BUT, the tsunami warning system has worked well, and a tsunami watch is in place. Many people have self-evacuated and fortunately, because of the incredible amount of tsunami-related work in the region, since the massive 2004 event authorities and the general public are considerably better prepared this time. Those of us who are not in the region at the moment will now be monitoring developments over the next few hours.

It appears to be a strike-slip fault which means that it is unlikely to generate a large tsunami, but then we hear that at least small ones have been reported. Of course such a large shake could generate submarine landslides (like in Haiti) which can also generate tsunamis. We continue to watch.”

Professor Kevin Furlong from Pennsylvania State University is currently in the US and is working with the US Geological Survey on this disaster. He is available for interview over the next 8 hours.

“The 11 April 2012, Mw 8.7 earthquake west of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia is a very large earthquake within the Indo-Australian plate. Although it is within the plate, its occurrence is almost certainly linked to the plate interactions between Indo-Australian plate and Indonesia (part of the Sunda segment of the Eurasian plate).

This earthquake reflects a style of faulting (strike-slip) which involves principally horizontal motion, and thus is unlikely to generate a significant tsunami; although very strong ground shaking would be felt on Sumatra. This is also an extremely large magnitude earthquake for this style of faulting, meaning that it likely involved substantial fault movement, and the fault likely extends for 200+ km This earthquake is of the same style of faulting and in approximately the same location as a Mw 7.2 earthquake on January 10, 2012.

Although this earthquake was within the Indo-Australian plate, any earthquake of this size will change the stress regimes acting on the nearby plate boundaries. The result is that stress conditions on the subduction plate boundary beneath Sumatra have changed, although the implications of that change are uncertain.” 

Associate Prof Huilin Xing is Deputy Director of the Earth Systems Science Computational Centre (ESSCC) at the University of Queensland’s School of Earth Sciences.

“This earthquake (M8.6) and following major aftershock M8.2 may be located at a splitting boundary that indicates the Indo-Australian Plate is splitting into two plates – the Indian plate and Australian plate.

If so, the mechanism would be different from the previous major Sumatra subduction earthquakes such as M9.1 in 2004 and thus a tsunami generated by the current earthquakes (M8.6 and M8.2) should not be that severe.”

Comments from UK experts (collated by our colleagues at the UK Science Media Centre): Dr David Rothery runs the Open University’s Volcanoes, Earthquakes and Tsunamis course in the UK

“Today’s M8.7 quake in the Indian Ocean offshore of Sumatra has the potential to cause a tsunami that could cause devastation to coasts all around the Indian ocean. A tsunami warning from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre predicts tsunami wave arrival at Banda Aceh (Sumatra) 10:31 BST, and Sri  Lanka between 11.30 and 12.30 BST.http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=indian.TSUIOX.2012.04.11.0845

A tsunami detection buoy (a DART station) in the Bay of Bengal http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=23227  detected a wave with amplitude of 30 cm in deep water (see figs below), which has the potential to become several times higher as it approaches the shore.

Today’s quake was probably about ten times less energetic than the M9.1 quake that caused the 26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. In addition, the nature of the quake, on the bending Indian ocean floor as it approaches the Sunda Trench (rather than a megathrust quake in the trench itself) may mean that the displacement of water to trigger the tsunami is less bad; the motion of the sea bed is different to that which occurred in 2004.”

Indonesia earthquake: Small Tsunami hit Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Indonesia earthquake: 40 cm high tsunami waves near Andamans

Courtesy: Daily Bhaskar

New Delhi: Minor tsunami waves up to 40 cm high were near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands following the massive earthquake off the Indonesian coast.

According to a report of Indian Tsunami Warning Centre, the tsunami alert has been continued as there could be waves of less than 2 meter high between 5 pm and 6.30 pm.

There have been at least five aftershocks experienced in Indonesia following the massive earthquake of 8.6 magnitude on the Richter scale.

Small tsunamis hit Indonesian coast after Sumatra quake

Courtesy: Focus Information Agency

Jakarta. At least three tsunamis of up to 80 centimetres (31 inches) hit Indonesia's coast after a massive 8.6-magnitude earthquake struck off Sumatra island Wednesday, AFP reported.

"Our tide gauges and buoys recorded small tsunamis," Said Kristiawan of Indonesia's Meteorology and Geophysics Agency said.

He said the highest was in Meulaboh in western Aceh, "measuring 80 centimetres", and other smaller ones were recorded in nearby coastal regions.

Why a Tsunami is unlikely after 8.6-magnitude earthquake in Indonesia

Courtesy: CNNIBN

The Indonesia earthquake that hit on Wednesday afternoon appears to have been a strike-slip earthquake. It is unlikely that there will be a devastating tsunami after Wednesday's 8.6-magnitude quake. 

Tsunamis are generated by displacement of water. In 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, a megathrust displaced a lot of water vertically, like so. The 2004 earthquake was almost purely strike-slip. 

Strike-slip earthquakes are completely horizontal and there is no vertical displacement. Since the vertical displacement of this earthquake will be relatively limited, the amount of water displaced and therefore tsunami is also likely to be limited. 

The Indonesia earthquake that hit on Wednesday afternoon appears to have been a strike-slip earthquake. It is unlikely that there will be a devastating tsunami after Wednesday's 8.6-magnitude quake. 

Tsunamis are generated by displacement of water. In 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, a megathrust displaced a lot of water vertically, like so. The 2004 earthquake was almost purely strike-slip. 

Strike-slip earthquakes are completely horizontal and there is no vertical displacement. Since the vertical displacement of this earthquake will be relatively limited, the amount of water displaced and therefore tsunami is also likely to be limited. 

Strike-slip earthquakes are completely horizontal and there is no vertical displacement.

A devastating tsunami is not likely, at least not like the 2004 one but it is uncertain exactly how large a tsunami this earthquake may generate. 

To generate a tsunami, you must have vertical uplift of water. It is not impossible for strike-slip earthquakes to generate vertical uplift of water, however. 

If the strike-slip movement is towards the continental slope, there may still be some vertical offset. 

If an earthquake occurs in an area with 100 m depth water and the strike-slip motion is towards shallower water and land. The huge 100 m stack of that water lying above the epicenter then moves towards land, too, where the water may only be 80 m deep. Suddenly you've just produced 20 m of vertical offset because you moved a 100 m deep stack of water to an area that's only 80 m deep. The strike-slip motion appears to be in ESE oblique against Indonesia, though, it is still doubtful that this will be a devastating tsunami.

 

Destructive tsunami unlikely: US Gelogical Survey

Courtesy: ZeeNews

Washington: The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has said the chances of a destructive tsunami following the massive 8.6 magnitude Indonesia earthquake were unlikely. USGS’ Bruce Presgrave told the BBC that during the earthquake, since the earth had moved horizontally rather than vertically, large volumes of water did not get displaced.

One expert told the BBC today's quake was a "strike-slip" fault, meaning a more horizontal shift of the ground under the sea as opposed to a sudden vertical shift. He said this meant there was less risk of a large displacement of water triggering a tsunami.

The quake was also felt in Sri Lanka, where office workers in the capital, Colombo, fled their offices, and the southern Thai holiday island of Phuket, both of which were hit hard by the 2004 tsunami.

In Bangladesh, where two tremors were felt, authorities said there appeared to be no threat of a tsunami. Australia also said there was no threat of a tsunami there.

Tsunami risk eases after massive Indonesian earthquake (Courtesy: TV New Zealand)

An 8.6 magnitude earthquake has struck off the coast of Indonesia, sending residents around the region dashing out of their homes and offices in fear.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre said a tsunami watch was in effect for the entire Indian Ocean and individual countries, including Thailand, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and India, issued tsunami warnings.

The centre later said the threat of a big tsunami had receded, although the warning remained in place.

"It doesn't look like a major tsunami. But we are still monitoring as tsunamis come in waves," Victor Sardina, a geophysicist on duty at the Hawaii-based institute, said.

People near the coast in six Thai provinces were ordered to higher ground.

The quake struck 500 kilometres southwest of the city of Banda Aceh, on the northern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra island, at a depth of 33km, the US Geological survey said.

Indonesia's president said there were no reports of casualties or damage from the huge earthquake.

"There is no tsunami threat although we are on alert," said President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at a joint news conference with visiting British Prime Minister David Cameron, who said Britain was standing ready to help if needed.

"The situation in Aceh is under control, there's a little bit of panic but people can go to higher ground," Yudhoyono said, adding that he had ordered a disaster relief team to fly to Aceh.

Indonesia's disaster management agency said power was down in Aceh province and people were gathering on high ground as sirens warned of the danger.

"The electricity is down, there are traffic jams to access higher ground. Sirens and Koran recitals from mosques are everywhere," said Sutopo, spokesman for the agency.

The quake was felt as far away as the Thai capital, Bangkok, and in southern India, residents said.

Hundreds of office workers in the Indian city of Bangalore left their buildings while the Indian port of Chennai closed down because of the danger of a tsunami, the port said.

Civil Defence said there was no current tsunami watch or advisory in effect for New Zealand.

A tsunami watch means there is potential for a tsunami, not that one is on its way.

The quake was in roughly in the same area as a December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 quake which sent huge tsunami waves crashing into Sumatra and across the Indian Ocean.

In all, the 2004 tsunami killed about 230,000 people in 13 Indian Ocean countries, including Thailand, Sri Lanka and India.

The 2004 quake was at a depth of 30km along a fault line running under the Indian Ocean, off western Indonesia and up into the Bay of Bengal.

Indonesian Earthquake: First Images and Map where Tsunami Likely to hit

Courtesy: Mirror

An earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 has struck under the sea in Indonesia triggering a tsunami warning across the Indian Ocean region.

On Boxing Day in 2004 a giant 9.1-magnitude quake in the same area triggered a tsunami that killed 230,000 people.

The quake hit 308 miles from the provincial capital of Banda Aceh and triggered widespread panic as residents along coastlines fled to high ground in cars and on the backs of motorcycles.

Some were crying. Others screamed "God as great" as they poured from their homes.

The quake struck as Prime Minister David Cameron arrived in Jakarta, Indonesia for the latest leg of his South East Asia trade mission.

The PM is 1,600 miles south-east of the province and on a different island, Java.

A spokesman for Indonesia's Meteorology and Geophysics Agency, said a tsunami warning has been issued for cities all along the coast of Sumatra island.

There was chaos in the streets, with fierce shaking continuing for nearly four minutes.

Timbang Pangaribuan told El Shinta radio from the city of Medan: "I was in the shower on the fifth floor of my hotel. "We all ran out. ... We're all standing outside now."

He said one guest was injured when he jumped from the window of his room.

The tremor was felt in Singapore, Thailand, Bangladesh, Malaysia and India. High-rise apartments and offices on Malaysia's west coast shook for at least a minute.

Tsunami Watch Issued by over 20 countries

Indian Ocean tsunami watch issued after massive earthquake hits Indonesia coast

Courtesy: Washington Post

BANDA ACEH, Indonesia — A tsunami watch was issued for countries across the Indian Ocean on Wednesday after a large earthquake hit waters off Indonesia, sending residents pouring from their homes in panic.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the 8.7-magnitude quake was centered 20 miles (33 kilometers) beneath the ocean floor around 269 miles (434 kilometers) from Aceh’s provincial capital.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said a tsunami watch was in effect for Indonesia, India, Sri Lanka, Australia, Myanmar, Thailand, the Maldives and other Indian Ocean islands, Malaysia, Pakistan, Somalia, Oman, Iran, Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa and Singapore.

A tsunami watch means there is the potential for a tsunami, not that one is imminent.

Said, an official at Indonesia’s Meteorology and Geophysics Agency who goes by only one name, said a tsunami warning has been issued for cities all along the coast of Sumatra island.

The tremor was felt in Singapore, Thailand, Bangladesh, Malaysia and India. High-rise apartments and offices on Malaysia’s west coast shook for at least a minute.

People in Banda Aceh screamed “God is great!” as they jumped into cars and the backs of motorcycles, clogging streets as they fled to high ground.

Indonesia straddles a series of fault lines that makes the vast island nation prone to volcanic and seismic activity.

A giant 9.1-magnitude quake off the country on Dec. 26, 2004, triggered a tsunami in the Indian Ocean that killed 230,000 people, nearly three quarter of them in Aceh.