Thursday, October 10, 2013

Red Alert: Potentially most dangerous Cyclone Phailin to make landfall Saturday

 
 
Tropical Cyclone Phailin has formed off the west coast of Thailand, and is moving west-northwest towards India at 8 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin is a medium-sized storm that is increasing in organization and intensity. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. 

With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to intensify into at least a Category 1 storm before landfall occurs near 12 UTC on Saturday, as predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin may be able to intensify into a Category 3 storm before landfall. The 12Z Wednesday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would peak as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds at landfall on Saturday. The northeast coast of India where Phailin is expected to hit is vulnerable to high storm surges and is densely populated, so Phailin has the potential to be a very dangerous storm.

The Andhra Pradesh government has issued a high alert in view of the cyclone along cyclonic storm Phailin along coastal Andhra and Odisha. After crossing North Andaman Islands, the deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal on Wednesday night intensified into cyclonic storm Phailin, while remaining practically stationary at about 950 km from Paradip. The cyclone would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours with a wind speed of 175-185 kmph and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by October 12 night, a bulletin by the IMD said.

Odisha was likely to experience rain and thundershower at many places and heavy rainfall at one or two places in the state in the next 12 hours, it said. Odisha government issued a high alert and cancelled the Dusshera holidays of employees in 14 districts with Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik asking collectors to ensure the safety of the people. The alert was issued to Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Jajpur, Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam and Gajapati districts.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Indian Weatherman: "90W" in 36hrs it can be Cyclone Phailin




 Latest analysis at 5:30pm, suggests that "90W" is now a marked LOW pressure system and gathering intensity on a rapid pace.
At present the pressure is around 1004mb and has tracked W-N-W, still in Andaman seas.
This is the latest location as per analysis.

Latest GFS model, suggests that the system will intensify into a Deep Depression in 24hrs and to Cyclone strength in 48hrs over E-Central Bay.

GFS and NCMRWF models now suggest a N-E Andhra coast and S Odisha coast landfall on midnight of Saturday, 12-Oct as Cyclone Phailin.

NAVGEM model suggests a Central, N-E Andhra coast as a Depression.       


Cyclone Threat by this weekend






(Accuweather) While the Western Pacific Ocean had produced 24 named tropical cyclones so far this year, the Northern Indian Ocean has only seen one named tropical cyclone.

This number is set to increase this week as tropical development is expected during the next 24 hours over the Andaman Sea, just west of Myanmar.

The combination of very warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear will aid in both development and strengthening of this future tropical cyclone.

While the Western Pacific Ocean had produced 24 named tropical cyclones so far this year, the Northern Indian Ocean has only seen one named tropical cyclone.

This number is set to increase this week as tropical development is expected during the next 24 hours over the Andaman Sea, just west of Myanmar.

The combination of very warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear will aid in both development and strengthening of this future tropical cyclone.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Cyclone Watch:Possible Landfall mid this week – Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal




In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, a strong tropical disturbance with plenty of spin has developed off the west coast of Thailand, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. 
According to Wunderground the North Indian Ocean is much easier to predict the formation of Tropical Cyclones for then the Atlantic, so these forecasts are very likely to come true. The storm expected to track to the west-northwest and make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday. Conditions are ripe for this storm to intensify to hurricane strength and drive a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.

Above is the NASA-MODIS satellite image of tropical disturbance 90W over the eastern Bay of Bengal in the North Indian Ocean, taken at approximately 08:30 UTC on October 8, 2013. NASA expects this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone that will affect Northeast India by mid this week. 

Here is the likely plot of the cyclone given by my friend Santosh Subramanian Weather of Kolkata


P1 - 30 % CHANCE P2 - 50 % CHANCE P3 - 20 % CHANCE

Monday, August 19, 2013

Spectacular NASA Images Illustrate Sun As A Driver Of Global Warming And Climate Change Foretells Global Cooling







(Pollutiononline) NASA’s dramatic video of a black-topped sun on the verge of flipping its magnetic polarity has captivated people. Friends of Science say the current low solar sunspot activity, not seen in 200 years, is a pattern that historically preceded global cooling and that the sun is the main driver of climate change, not carbon dioxide.

Calgary, Alberta, Canada (PRWEB) - Climate change on earth is significantly affected by the changing 11 year solar magnetic cycles, according to Friends of Science and many solar and climate researchers. A recently released NASA video, complete with animation explaining the process wherein the sun’s magnetic poles flip polarity, lends credence to the scientific position Friends of Science takes on climate change and global warming.
“We are pleased that the NASA video and animation describing these events in part explains how climate is affected by the solar magnetic flux,”
says Dr. Neil Hutton, director of Friends of Science. The video also notes there are space and earth climate variations as earth passes through the ‘waves’ of magnetic energy radiating from the sun.

Dr. Hutton is a long-time proponent of the view that solar magnetic flux is the principle driver of climate change. His work has been cited by the late Dr. Peter Ziegler, Emeritus Professor, University of Basel, in December 2010 in a presentation to the Swiss Academy of Sciences.
“For the first time in history, people are able to observe close-up the changes the sun goes through as its magnetic poles flip,” says Hutton. He points out that sun spot activity has been documented as early as 300 BC, but most notably by Galileo in the 1600’s, and the activity has been systematically recorded since 1700.

Hutton notes that this particular “Cycle 24” of the sun is quite unusual due to the very low number of sunspots.

“The current sun spot behavior has not been observed in 200 years,” says Hutton.
Colder periods like the Little Ice Age were preceded by low sunspot activity. During the Little Ice Age from about 1350 to 1850, cooler temperatures and wet seasons across Europe lead to massive crop failures, famines and civil unrest. Hutton states:
“The Sun's magnetic index is measured daily and has significantly declined since the last maximum of Cycle 23. The geomagnetic activity of earth and that of the sun are interrelated and their interplay also affects climate. Theoretically, a weaker solar magnetic field could allow the penetration of more cosmic rays which directly affect cloud cover and climate. This has been demonstrated by the recently completed CLOUD experiment at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research.”
Friends of Science express concern that global governments are not prepared for the possible consequences of multi-decade global cooling.
“Even a one degree drop in temperature could devastate agricultural production,” says Hutton. “Are we prepared?”
Colder weather would reduce northern hemisphere crop growth, increase demand for reliable, dispatchable energy, and increase the number of health issues and deaths.
“Instead of spending a trillion dollars world-wide on carbon reduction policies and unreliable wind and solar, as we have done in the past decade, we need to upgrade and maintain inexpensive fossil-fuel based energy for northern, industrialized countries,” says Hutton.
Friends of Science President, Len Maier, a retired engineer, is a farmer and recommends:
“We must convert land production from producing biofuels from crops like canola and corn. Current producing crops like these should be dedicated to human or animal feed, not be used for biofuels.”
The Little Ice Age lasted about 500 years. Other periods of extended cooling occurred before humans used fossil-fuels. Friends of Science agree that human activity has some impact on climate; the effect of human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2) is minor compared to natural forces and cyclical patterns of the sun and ocean currents.