Mid-Summer Snow in New Zealand

Courtesy: NZHerald.co.nz

Mid-Summer snow is falling and settling on Porters Pass this afternoon in the South Island, along with hail and other winter conditions on Arthurs Pass reports WeatherWatch.co.nz.

WeatherWatch.co.nz's West Coast reporter, Andy Thompson, says traffic is heavier than usual and describes the current weather conditions as "completely winter-like".

Reports coming in from Southland to Canterbury talk of people lighting fires, turning on heaters and heat pumps and generally saying it feels like the middle of winter.

Britain blasted by snow & Ice

Courtesy: Daily Mail

With parts of Britain already covered by snow and ice forecasters have warned of a 24-hour cold snap. Severe weather warnings have been issued for many areas with up to four inches of snow expected to fall on higher ground in Scotland and northern England. One of the first places to be hit was County Durham in the north-east, with residents waking to find heavy snowfall and ice.

With temperatures yesterday hovering only just above freezing for many parts of the country, including London, forecasters warned that ice could create hazardous driving conditions.

Dan Williams, from the Met Office, said it would be a 'short-lived event'. Milder temperatures of about 10C are expected to return but with heavy rain likely in some areas. Britain has basked in unusually balmy temperatures over the last week with the country on course for one of the mildest winters since records began 350 years ago. But forecasters warned that in the coming weeks the unseasonably warm weather may not last, with easterly winds causing snowstorms and freezing temperatures to rip through the country again. Mr Williams said:

'If we continue to get winds coming off the Atlantic from a westerly direction, these will bring mild air over the UK. But if the wind changes to an easterly flow, it has the potential to bring cold air from continental Europe. This is what happened in December 2010, which was very cold because we had an easterly flow for almost a month. When that happens, any precipitation becomes snow and we had lots of snow and freezing weather.'

The average temperature from December 1 to January 15 has been 5.5C, where the warmest winter in history, in 1868-69, topped that at 6.8C.

Snow in Sahara desert; UAE under Cold Wave; Igloo village in Davos; Leh minus 22 deg C; Arctic Oscillation turns strongly negative

Wondering why Mysore registered the coldest minimum temperature in 120 years recently? Steven Goddard who administers the bog Real Science give us a clue: "Global temperatures are plummeting, and the temperature recorded by AMSU satellite of 251.858K on January 19 was the coldest of any day since at least 2002.”

It’s all happening. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has finally flipped to its strongly negative mode and if it stays that way, a deep freeze is on its way that would plunge global temperatures to lows, last seen during the 1945-77 global cooling cycle the very least. A foretaste of winter to come during February is already indicated by some of these very recent events:

Snow in Sahara Desert

Snow fell Tuesday in the province of Bechar in the Sahara Desert in western Algeria. A 24-hour cold spell brought snow and rain to the region. Strong wind blew the snow across roads and buildings in the province of Bechar. The weatherman at the National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) recorded sub-zero temperatures at Jebel Jais area of Ras Al Khaimah and forecast that these conditions are set to continue for the rest of the week. People who live in the region said the snow was good for the palm trees because it killed parasites. Bechar is located in the northern Sahara, about 36 miles south of the Moroccan border. Click arrow to watch video.

Extreme Cold Wave in the Gulf countries

According to the National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) forecast for today, minimum temperatures are set to dip to 0°C in the UAE’s mountainous regions while internal areas could see temperatures dipping to a nippy 5°C and coastal areas could see minimum temperatures of 13°C.

The NCMS forecast reads: “Cold weather during day times to very cold during night. The cloud amount will increase at times, especially over the northern areas, with chance of light rain. Winds will be west to northwesterly, moderate to fresh in general. Sea will be moderate to rough with wave height 3 - 5 / 6 ft offshore.”

Unaccustomed to the chill, UAE residents are putting up a brave front as a cold wave continues to spread across the length and breadth of the country, with extreme weather conditions sweeping mountainous regions and the country recording its lowest temperatures for the year yesterday. Rough weather has prompted a warning to beachgoers across the UAE to refrain from venturing into the sea. The UAE’s met department has predicted that the rough weather will continue until Friday

Leh: minus 22.2 degrees Celsius

Leh town in Ladakh recorded the coldest night of this season as mercury settled at a low of minus 21.8 degrees Celsius, an official of the Met department said. Nearby Kargil town recorded a low of minus 21.0 degrees Celsius, making it the second coldest place in the state.In Kashmir Valley, Pahalgam resort was the coldest place at minus 16.5 degrees followed by Gulmarg Skiing resort at minus 16.2 degrees Celsius, the official said.Qazigund, the gateway town to Kashmir, recorded a low of minus 12.4 degrees Celsius followed by Kokernag resort at minus 9.9 degrees Celsius.Srinagar city, the summer capital of the state, saw mercury dipping to minus 5.0 degrees Celsius last night.  

 An Igloo Village in Davos

The Occupy protests that blossomed across the globe in the fall of 2011 are popping up at the annual meeting of the rich and powerful in Davos Switzerland. Using the weather to their advantage, protesters are carving out blocks of snow and shaping them into igloos that are surprisingly warm, if not an effort to make. They hope to make develop an "igloo village" near the Davos train station.

Deep freeze kicks in as Arctic Oscillation turns strongly negative

The first half of winter has clearly been much milder than the last couple of winters, as a very strong polar vortex has controlled the pattern, and shielded Europe from any sustained cold. Recently, the vortex has weakened and the AO turned strongly negative as seen above, which would allow seasonably cold weather across much of Europe in February if not earlier.

According to NOAA as seen in the above diagrams the AO index describes the relative intensity of a semi-permanent low-pressure centre over the North Pole. A band of upper-level winds circulates around this centre, forming a vortex. When the AO index is positive and the vortex intense, the winds tighten like a noose around the North Pole, locking cold air in place.

A negative AO and weak vortex … allow intrusions of cold air to plunge southward into North America, Europe, and Asia. … the index has been mostly positive in wintertime since the late 1980s. The Arctic Oscillation has strengthened in recent decades, contributing to the unusual warmth over the Northern Hemisphere land masses.

The first sign of a much weakened polar vortex is that the Arctic Oscillation (AO), also referred to as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) has recently switched to a strongly negative mode - the first time in four months.Britain blasted by snow & ice yesterday is example of this. Read here.

The AO is an atmospheric circulation pattern in which the atmospheric pressure over the Polar Regions varies in opposition with that over middle latitudes (about 45 degrees North) on time scales ranging from weeks to decades. The oscillation extends through the depth of the troposphere. During the months of January through March it extends upward into the stratosphere where it modulates in the strength of the westerly vortex that encircles the Arctic polar cap region.

The NOAA's AO prediction for the next two weeks shows a strong negative trend which typically in the past has brought colder weather for Europe. The bottom chart for Europe shows the anomaly for the coming week. The middle chart shows the foret.cast for the week after. It’s going to get even colder. Europe this year may get a hard winter after all – it may be just arriving late. The lower chart of central Asia shows below normal temps are forecast for almost every region for the coming week, and the middle chart shows even deeper cold for the week after, as we saw is the case for Europe. In fact it’s rare to see that much cold over such a vast continent

However, AO's cousin the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) sill remains weakly positive (graph to right) but ensemble mean (graph to the left) suggests models are indecisive which mode NAO will go by February. But since the polar vortex is rapidly giving way, the odds favour the NAO too slipping into strongly negative mode sometime in February or even earlier.

Atlantic over the past 50 years,. h Other studies have found correlations between NAO and Indian monsoon.  “Interannual and long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall” (Dugam, Kakade and Verma, Indian Institue of Tropical Meteorology, 1997 [http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2068184]) investigated 108 years of NAO / monsoon data and found that:

“The decadal scale analysis reveals that the NAO during winter (December-January-February) and spring (March-April-May) has a statistically significant inverse relationship with the summer monsoon rainfall of Northwest India, Peninsular India and the whole of India. The highest correlation is observed with the winter NAO. The NAO and Northwest India rainfall relationship is stronger than that for the Peninsular and whole of India rainfall on climatological and sub-climatological scales.” 

Atmospheric Blocking

When the polar vortex weakens, the polar jet stream slows and meanders in a form that allows the extension of low pressure lobes much farther to the south. These can become stationary for days and block the normal circulation of the atmosphere. The negative AO/NAO is associated with a slowed polar vortex and polar jet stream. When the jet stream slows, it meanders in a waveform pattern (Rossby waves). The general effect is illustrated below:

Blocking has a lot to do with the severity of winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and the AO has a strong ability to control blocking. A blocking event can be defined as a week or more of excess pressure in the mid-troposphere together with an anticyclone at the surface. … blocking occurs preferentially during the low AO phase in Alaska, the North Atlantic, and Russia. [http://www.jisao.washington.edu/wallace/ncar_notes/] Barriopedro et al (“Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.113, 2008 [http://idl.ul.pt/davidbarriopedro/2008%20Barriopedro%20et%20al.pdf]) found that:

“Solar activity modulates the preferred locations for blocking occurrence over both Oceans, causing local frequency responses therein. Over the Pacific Ocean high/low solar activity induces an enhanced blocking activity over its eastern/western part. Atlantic blocking occurrence increases for both (high/low) solar phases, with a spatial dependent response confined to western/eastern Atlantic. … Low solar Atlantic blocking episodes last longer, are located further east and become more intense than high solar blocking events.”

No respite from biting cold till March; February maybe winter at its harshest; above normal monsoons, floods highly likely this year

Over 200 dead and increasing public demands to declare cold as natural calamity and for avoidance of elections during winter are just few of the many warning symptoms of India's failure to adjust to a rapidly cooling world. We provide an overview to some of the chaos this creates:

New Delhi: Republic Parade to be affected by fog, cold?

If you were flying in or out of Delhi you couldn't have chosen a worst time of the year to do so.  Near zero visibility, hour-long closures of air space for Republic Day practice and VIP movements led to the season’s worst disruptions at Indira Gandhi International airport yesterday. Almost 300 flights were delayed by 2-8 hours while 28 were canceled and 19 diverted, as departures were held up completely between 7am and 9am, the peak operation time for domestic flights.

The Republic Day (26^th January) preparations in New Delhi have been hit by heavy fog and cold. But school children, adults and the military braved intense cold wave and fog to rehearse for the Republic Day parade for more than a month. Their determination may go in vain as the weather gods are sending the western disturbance, mercifully milder, the third for the month to hit India tomorrow. The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation now centers over northeast Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan, persists and now extends upto 4.5 kms a.s.l. The cyclonic circulation over Haryana and adjoining west Uttar Pradesh also persists and now extends upto 3.6 kms a.s.l. The above two system are forecasted to move north-eastwards by the Indian Met office. 

The next western disturbance’s arrival phase will, however, lift minimum (night) temperatures a bit. But ground frost has been forecast for this period in the wake of the cold, dense air sinking to the ground level after a prevailing western disturbance has passed to the east. It will take the ascending motion of at the vanguard of the incoming western disturbance to replace the cold air. Fog conditions should therefore reduce by Sunday morning. Clear sky will keep the night temperatures will be around 5-6 deg C during the weekend. But Delhi may face intense cold and fog from Republic Day affecting the parade. If so, this would be the first time in several decades!

Uttarakhand: Cold Wave to affect polling turnout?

This hill state is to go to polls on 30^th January. Most of the political parties including the incumbent BJP government have already expressed reservations to the election commission about the January-end polling. "We communicated to the commission but were told that the commission has studied the winter cycle of the last fifty years," Khanduri, the state's chief minister said. With less than ten days left for the polling campaigning is yet to pick up in the hills of Uttarakhand even the lower ranges of the Shivaliks have been snowing, forcing both the candidates and public indoors.  

There are 9744 polling booths in Uttarakhand and a petition in the Supreme Court last week had urged postponement of the elections as nearly 30 per cent of these booths are in snow bound areas. There are even places like Harsil in Uttarkashi district where the polling parties have to carry voting machines and their luggage on mules and horses and walk for days to conduct elections. The court refused to interfere; the commission is hopeful that the weather would clear up by the polling date. Chief Electoral Officer, Uttarakhand Radha Raturi told The Hindu, "We have information that after January 23 weather will improve, so polling on the 30th should not be a problem."  In constituencies spread over vast hilly terrain where margins of victory at times are a few hundred votes, a low voter turnout can affect the outcome of polls and political parties are obviously worried. 

While states like Uttarakhand may get a slight relieve from fog and cold conditions from the 23^rd, this would most likely be a temporary reprieve, as the effects of the next western disturbance will bring back the cold, snow and fog from around the 25th which would throw a spanner in the smooth conduct of the polls in the state on January 30th. The last round of assembly polls demonstrated voter turnout around 80%. This time, in states like Uttarakhand, we may see turnout not more than 60%. How low it gets, would be interesting. If it falls to 30% levels, then the Election Commission may attract alot of flak to continue the scheduled polls despite public opposition to this decision.

Rajasthan: Demands for Cold Wave inclusion as a Natural Calamity increases

Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot wrote to Home Minister P Chidambaram, demanding inclusion of frost and cold wave in the category of natural calamity. He said that if cold wave and frost are included in the category of natural calamity, it will help farmers in getting compensation for their damaged crops. The state opposition party, the BJP too demanded change of norms by the Centre and inclusion of cold wave and ground frost in the disaster list. BJP's Rajasthan unit office bearers, MPs and MLAs marched towards the Raj Bhavan (governor’s residence) and submitted a memorandum to the Governor S K Singh to this effect. "We have demanded that the Central government should amend its disaster list and include cold wave and ground frost in it," a BJP spokesperson said.

Rajasthan reeled under intense cold as Mount Abu, the state’s only hill station, experiencing a chilling night at -2.2°C. Dabok was also cold at 3.2 degree Celsius. Vanasthali, Sawaimadhopur, Pilani and Bundi recorded a minimum of 3.4, 4.8, 5.5 and 5.8 degree Celsius respectively while other parts of the state recorded night temperatures in the range of 6.4 degree Celsius to 10.5 degree Celsius.

South India: Reprieve from Cold Wave maybe short lived

Last week’s cold wave in South India that plunged temperatures to 100 year lows in many areas may have been dismissed a freak by the Indian Met office. Though temperatures are rising again, this can radically change after the 25th of this month. According to the blog Indian Weatherman: “A strong anti-cyclone is expected to form over N-E Andhra on 22-Jan... which will fan more N-westerlies towards South. (see map on left).  Anti-cyclones are formed when clear, dry air masses cool from a loss of infrared radiation, while little sunlight is absorbed to offset that infrared cooling.

As long as the anti-cyclone persists and remains strong, this could bring back cold wave conditions after 26th January to South India. This will however lead to a marked rise in min and max temp in Central India and min temp can settle close to 20C as against the persisting ~10C. Mango production is expected to take a huge hit.

So why is South Asia experiencing a prolonged & harsh winter?

The colder than normal, if not harsh winter in South Asia can be attributed to the combined effect of La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), oceanic processes in the Central Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. Both factors tend to draw the cold air of higher latitudes to the tropical and sub-tropical Asia. 

La Niña conditions occur when eastern equatorial Pacific water becomes colder than normal. It is the reverse of El Niño, and sends such a strong signal that this single event can shatter the weather pattern all over the globe. Now the Central Pacific water is more than 1C colder than normal. 

 

The La Niña appeared to have peaked this month with NIÑO3.4 values at 0.8 deg C and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value at +12.8. The La Niña has started to markedly weaken with most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming autumn season. 

But as the late John Daly, a great among climatologists, observed, the Southern Oscillation is the primary driver of year-to-year global temperature, with a 6 to 9 month lag time. Accordingly, while the La Niña has peaked and weakening, its impact on global temperature is just starting to kick in. We are now seeing the La Niña effect beginning to be the prime driver of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Winter had been mild within the mid-latitudes till mid January because Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its cousin North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had been in their positive phases. But a pattern change has taken place with winter intensifying despite the AO and NAO remaining largely positive as seen below as the La Niña is beginning to swamp their effect :

 Joe D'Aleo reports: "The Northern Hemisphere came hard out of the box early with well above normal snow. Then a strng [polar vortex took over and preventing the snow from expanding very far into the lower 48 and west into Europe. A breakdown of that vortex is underway and snow has started to fall in the northern US and in Europe. Here is the current snowpack."

 The AMSU satellite data besides shows that in trapping hot spot itself - 400mb or 25,000 feet levels - the atmosphere is at its coldest for the entire decade! Temperatures in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific have continued to cool over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 17 January shows the volume of water in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific more than 4 °C cooler than usual for this time of the year. With the atmosphere and sea surface temperatures freezing cold, it is a matter of time land masses follow.

IOD on the other hand is a seesaw like temperature pattern of the eastern and western Indian Ocean with a respective warmer and colder zone. IOD was in negative phase till last week but the index has since then switched to neutral - the index value for the week ending 15 January was −0.1. The model ensemble mean indicate that it would rebound slightly before turning weakly negative next month, progressively strengthening right through September.  This means the beginning to the end to East African drought! 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the leading mode of precipitation in the Indian monsoon region in the absence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO variability. It is a measure of the east-west heat distribution across this ocean. Accordingly, the South West Monsoon of South Asia is driven, at least in a big part, by heat energy entering the atmosphere from the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it should follow that the behavior of the South West Monsoon, including distribution and amount of rainfall, would largely hinge upon the temperature state of the Indian Ocean (the IOD). A negative Dipole is more likely to concurrent a La Niña than an El Niño and this year is an example. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of Central Pacific model ensemble mean indicate that La Niña values should last till September this year. 

A positive IOD represents warming anomalies to the west of equatorial Indian Ocean relative to the east. It boosts a concurrent Indian monsoon. The IOD is negative when the western Indian Ocean has below-normal temperatures concurrent with an eastern Indian Ocean that is warmer than normal. The negative IOD normally tends to hinder the SW Monsoon. So as the IOD slips into its weakly negative phase, normally during the austral winter, rains over Indonesia and Australia are expected to be above normal while the Indian sub-continent experiences a weaker summer monsoon.

However, 2012 should be an abnormal year since it has a negative IOD occurring concurrent with the La Niña which is relatively a rare event as seen in the above table - occurring at a frequency of around 7 years out of every 100 years. 

To get an insight what kind of rainfall we could get for years where La Niña overlapped a negative IOD we can check out the monsoon data provided by the IMD website (here). What we find the La Niña effect swamps those of a negative IOD, each and every year classified within this category as tabulated below:  

 

What is more, in most of these years, the monsoon brought massive floods. Since weather events tend to repeat itself in cycles, we can expect above average monsoons accompanied by floods this year.

Conclusion:

The cold wave we experienced so far in India can be considered just an appetizer. The main course of the cold wave will be served from now on viz. it is poised to intensify; death toll will spike and people’s miseries will increase.

Winter can be expected to stay at least until March, if not beyond it. "During this winter, northern part of the country is likely to be below normal. So, we may expect that at least in the extreme north, the temperature should be below normal up to end of February and then by March and all it should reach to a normal situation," said Director of Forecasting Division, Pune Weather Department, Dr. D. S. Pai. 

The Election Commission would end up probably vindicated for sticking to their decision not to change the 30th January poll date of Uttarakhand. This is because the state is likely to face a more intensified cold wave during February.

Though the IOD would turn negative shortly, India is most likely to receive above average monsoons enabling a bumper harvest with food commodity prices continuing to soften further. 

The speculation whether it would snow in New Delhi this season would remain alive. Due to increased convection, localized precipitation events can occur producing about 15-20% above normal precipitation during February and March. A snow in New Delhi headquartering warmists like the IPCC chairperson, Rajendra Pachauri; India’s premier environmental NGO, Centre for Science & Environment (CSE); WWF; Oxfam; ActionAid; ChristianAid etc would be a symbolic victory for the climate sceptic community in India. February may just give sceptics the icing in the cake - the battle we are winning already!

Cold Wave death toll cross 200. Why this "Kolaveri Di"? Where's my global warming dude?

[Why this Kolaveri Di (Why this murderous rage), a Tamil song, released on 16 November 2011, instantly became viral on social networking sites. Within a few weeks, YouTube honoured the video with a Recently Most Popular Gold Medal Award for receiving the largest number of hits in a short time]

“When political correctness substitutes for science, the results are sure to be illogical.  Global warming is an outcome in search of a cause — a solution in search of a problem.  The pre-ordained outcome is government control and taxation of all industrial activity. 

So now, the search is on for any evidence, real or imaginary, that industrial activity is harmful to the environment.  So far, the only "proof" of future warming has come from computer generated forecasts, which can be easily manipulated to show just about anything.” (Tony Akdart)  

Global warming is real, happening right now and accelerating. Besides, the warmist brigade of the likes of the Centre and Science & Environment (CSE), Greenpeace, WWF, Oxfam, Action Aid, ChristianAid etc never let us forget that the debate is “over” and the science is “settled”.  These warmists demonstrate a reflexive tendency to assume the worst-case scenarios generated by climate models are true. So in order to “peg global temperature rise to 2 degree”, they want to reorder public policies and priorities by all kinds of taxation and regulating our energy technological options. They even unleashed their plans to make our agriculture "climate smart' by adapting to rising temperatures". 

In a nutshell, according to climate alarmists, without fossil fuels the world will be transformed into the Gaian's ecotopian vision of small sustainable human settlements, surrounded by protected wild-lands, and governed by some sort of one world government. The late Dr. Steven Schneider, Stanford Professor of Biology and Global Change was among the earliest and most vocal proponents of man-made global warming. He is most famous for stating that climatologists should only present the most dramatic and frightening scenarios and find their own balance between truth and lies. He has been a lead author of many IPCC reports, and was the editor of “Scientists on Gaia" in which he states "the Gaia Hypothesis has now become established in mainstream science." In 1988 he also organised the first international conference to discuss "Gaia and Science".

So far so good they may have thought. Except that the Greek mythological goddess, Gaia apparently had no part in this conspiracy taking place in her name. But Gaia it seems is not without a sense of humour and always gets her way with lunatics taking her name in vain. For several years now, we climate sceptics have amusedly eyed a phenomenon known as “The Gore Effect” to give our arguments against global warming a tinge of humour. “The Gore Effect” is a concept suggesting a causal relationship between unseasonable cold weather phenomena and meetings associated with global warming, with particular emphasis on events attended by ex US Vice-President, Al Gore. For instance as Gore landed in Copenhagen to attend the UN Climate Summit two years, over four inches of snow fell in Copenhagen as temperatures dipped below freezing. Denmark, the hosts of the summit had consequently a White Christmas, which occurred only seven times in the last 100 years.

This year winter had a mild start within the Northern Hemisphere. This warmed many warmist hearts, tempting many to go back to their old and evil habit of linking each and every event to global warming. And sure enough, Gaia’s sense of humour expressed itself by bringing a sudden pattern change in global winter, the harshness of which, catching climate alarmists off guard. Temperatures in most parts of India are now running 5-15 degrees C below normal.  Such was “Kolavehe ri Di" (killer rage), winter has taken over 200 lives within the country as of now. But India is not alone in the world in facing a harsh winter. Just short list how naughty winter has been so far in various parts of the world:

- A record 18 feet snow storm dump, buried an Alsakan town who needed the US National Guards to be called out for their rescue!

- Record snow forced snow resorts in Austrian Alps to close down! (Yes, you heard right)

- Dal Lake in Jammu & Kashmir froze, enabling children and adults use it as a cricket pitch!

- In Western Europe, warmist media till a few days was mockingly asking where winter was and speculating whether spring had already arrived months early.  They will have their answers by this Thursday when an arctic blast will plunge UK and large swathes of Western Europe below minus 10 deg C and mercilessly crush all the unseasonal flower blooms seen this month!

-  Himachal Pradesh, a state that is going to polls later in the year and whose government faces huge anti-incumbency, suddenly found a reason to smile. Almost their entire state lay covered by snow, even the plains, not normally conducive environment for snow. Sensing an opportunity to boost their flagging economy, the government hard sold snow tourism during prime time national TV. A day later they took off these advertisements as the purpose was served. All flights to and hotel capacity in the state were booked for a full two months!

But that's all the good news. Now for the bad news. Winter might be late but it is here now and should be staying around at least till early March, if not longer.  The La Nina appears to have peaked but its cooling effect on global temperatures should be felt right through to September and perhaps beyond that too. The strongly positive phase of two climate phenomena - the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its cousin North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were responsible for much of the earlier mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere. A pattern change has now come about as both are now alternating between their respective weakly positive and negative indices which should explain why much of Northern Hemisphere are now experiencing largely unsettled weather conditions. As and when the AO and/or NAO turns strongly negative, this is when we could see winter's real "Kolaveri Di". However, the behaviour of the AO or NAO is extremely unpredictable, which is why they are often termed as "wild cards" to the winter. But as of now, the odds greatly favour them going strongly negative very shortly.

Cold Wave's "Kolaveri Di"

The cold wave, from being confined to the North and North West as traditionally, has now enveloped almost the entire length and breadth of the Indian sub-continent. This week it reached as far down as the southern state of Karnataka. Temperature records tumbled in many places to 100 year lows; with Madikeri (Coorg) registering it’s lowest in 132 years at 4.8 degrees C.  Mysore had its coldest day in 120 years at 7.7 degrees C while Bangalore recorded its coldest day of January in the past 19 years with minimum temperature touching 12 degrees C. The outskirts of Bangalore like Bengaluru International Airport area touched below 10 degrees C and GKVK (Agriculture University) was freezing at 8.4 degrees C.

The temperature in the twin cities of Hubli-Dharwad dipped suddenly to 9.3 against 11 degrees Celsius in the last three days. Bijapur recorded the lowest ever minimum temperature at 8.4 degrees Celsius. Even Gadag was chilly at 12 degrees Celsius against 14, which was recorded in the last two days. Haveri recorded 9 degrees Celsius on Monday. The Sun cities of North-Karnataka region -Koppal, Gulbarga and Raichur were greeted by biting cold with Raichur recording 9 degrees Celsius and Gulbarga 12 degrees Celsius. In the plains, Belgaum was the coldest at 7.2 degrees Celsius.

B Puttanna, director, in-charge, Bangalore MET department told the Times of India:

“The severe cold wave from the North and North-East, combined with clear skies, has appreciably brought down the minimum temperatures across the state. Also the shorter day time and longer nights have reduced the radiation on Earth's surface...Last week, the temperatures in Karnataka were above normal. But this week after the severe cold wave affected North India, the temperatures in various parts of the state have gone down by 7-9 degrees Celsius.''

Meanwhile, in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, the temperature in most of the 23 districts is three to nine degrees below normal. At least 13 districts are reeling under severe cold as the mercury fell to below 10 degrees Celsius. The intensity of the cold has surprised all. The southern state, known for its tropical weather, never heard of deaths due to cold wave. And still 15 cold wave deaths have so far been reported. The night temperature at Lambasinghi, a tribal hamlet in Visakhapatnam district, fell below zero degrees Celsius with further reports suggesting that some forest habitations in the district have virtually turned into a Kashmir. The mercury in Chintapalli tribal belt of Visakhapatnam is hovering between one and 1.5 degree Celsius for the last four days. People in Adilabad district of Telangana shivered as the night temperature fell to below five degrees. The district bordering Maharashtra recorded a temperature of 4.2 degrees, the lowest in over 100 years. The coastal district of Srikakulam recorded nine degrees, the lowest in decades. The coastal city of Visakhapatnam also registered 11.2 degrees, the lowest in 50 years.

Cold wave conditions have spread to Eastern India too with dense fog conditions blocking incoming solar radiation and bringing down day temperatures. Cold wave conditions continued to hold over many parts of Orissa, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh for a couple of days.

Kolkata on Saturday shivered under intense cold with the mercury dipping further to 10.2 degrees Celsius (four degrees below normal), as almost all West Bengal districts were reeling under cold wave sweeping the state. Darjeeling was coldest in the state with the mercury sliding two degrees below freezing point. Northern districts of Jalpaiguri recorded minimum temperature at 10.1 degrees Celsius, Coochbehar at 9.1 degrees, while Dum Dum in south Bengal was cold at 9.4 degrees and Krishnagar at 7.1 degrees Celsius.

In Orrisa, a cold wave continued to sweep with the morning and night temperatures slipping to below normal for this time of the season. Phulbani town in Kandhamal district recorded a minimum temperature of 5.4 degrees Celsius. Similar low temperatures were recorded in Titilagarh, Sambalpur, Jharsuguda, Bolangir, Sundergarh and Baripada districts. At least 20 cold wave deaths were reported from the state.

Where's my global warming dude?

 

Where's my global warming dude? I ask all around but get no answer.

The warmist brigade - Centre and Science & Environment (CSE), Greenpeace, WWF, Oxfam, Action Aid, ChristianAid etc all seem to have all gone underground! Try as you want but you will find none brave enough to comment on the plunging temperatures in the country (running 5-10 deg C below normal). Their websites are running while you can't find the word climate change anywhere in their contents! The truth is that climate alarmists get extremely embarrassed by weather like this. They go a little quiet, and hibernate until the next heat wave.

They’ll probably retort now that it is about climate not weather. Indeed it is. Yet they tend to go on an overdrive when the weather suits their narrative and silent when the records don’t suit. The other argument you could probably hear from them is that global warming creates cooling. Assuming so, then all their worries - Arctic sea ice; Himalayan glaciers melting away; sea level rises - disappears and so does the very cause they espouse. This is why we climate sceptics have just having a ball by simply watching the alarmist discomfiture. 

And yet, warmists often like to project an image of themselves as some sort of a modern (the Greek mythical) Cassandra. But they always fall flat as their dire prophecies were usually believed but were always wrong whereas Cassandra was never believed but were always right. A decade ago for example, warmists warned that snow will be thing of the past viz be extinct. This prophecy was falsified as this season will be the fourth consecutive winter for the northern hemisphere, third in a row for India. Worse still, instead of global warming accelerating, it is the cold that is accelerating!

Not one prediction of the UN-IPCC climate models has materialized but this dubious track record does not apparently deter warmists to make even more predictions about the climate. Just a few months ago, NGOs like Oxfam and ActionAid launched reports with big fanfare advocating "Climate Smart Agriculture". They claimed that global hunger is on the increase because agricultural productivity is declining due to rapidly rising temperatures. The poor they claimed just can't afford food due to food inflation arising of a demand-supply gap. Barbara Stoking, CEO of UK charity, Oxfam shocked the world by even claiming that "farms have gone bust".

These claims are now exposed as a bunch of untruths and outcomes of shoddy research or just plain ignorance. Global food commodity prices are on the retreat as also reflected in the softening of food prices in India. This fiscal, not only would India be registering an all time bumper food production, but global food production too is poised to turn in a similar performance, with gross hectarage under cultivation in the mid latitudes at record highs. Here goes another warmist prophesy biting the dust.

The impact of any advocacy hinges on credibility of its provider which someone defined as “the quality of being believable or trustworthy." It is very difficult to build credibility, and, needless to say, it is very easy to damage. Miller (1997). It is rather unfortunate to find NGOs like Oxfam who built up a huge amount of public credibility over decades, throwing it all away by practicing a type of advocacy that only succeeds in painting them as buffoons.

Rather than demonstrate that the science is unbiased and credible by acknowledging the uncertainty, NGOs like Oxfam have resorted to outrageous scare tactics and apocalyptic projections. Climate is a complex science and to pretend NGOs have this expertise as their core competence is an exercise in delusion. But perhaps more tragic is that they threw away their legitimacy to speak for developing countries and the poor by peddling "climate" solutions that have accentuated poverty and hunger in the world. Saving the ‘environment’ has become more important policy imperative than human life itself. Climate Smart Agriculture is one such solution, the other being renewable energy.