IMD: Monsoon will hit Kerala on time but with poor vigour!

Read our forecast: Monsoon 2014:  ‘Super’ El Niño is unlikely but rainfall deficiency can cross 16%!

Perhaps the first admission by IMD that their forecast of 95% of LPA is not going to hold and the country is staring into the face of one of the worst droughts in recent times!

(CNNIBN) Monsoon will arrive in Kerala on time, the Met Department has said. However, it may be affected by the El Nino which may lead to less rainfall than expected, the Met added.

"The monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on time. There are movements over the Arabian Sea as the Western Disturbance is also approaching. So these positive signs show that the monsoon is expected to reach on time. It can come four days ahead or behind. The El Nino may lead to less rainfall than expected," BP Yadav, the Met Director said.

"We are predicting that we may receive less rainfall than normal but it's likely to approach on time," he added.

Yadav also said that light rain showers on Sunday will bring respite from the heat conditions prevailing in Delhi, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and even Telangana.

"The temperature is a few notches above normal. The temperature will come down by one or two degrees today and tomorrow. It will be hot on weekend. On Sunday, there will be some respite from this heat wave and light rain showers are expected," Yadav said.

EQUINOO Effect May Reduce El Nino Impact

Read our forecast: Monsoon 2014:  ‘Super’ El Niño is unlikely but rainfall deficiency can cross 16%!

Note EQUINOO is another terminology for Indian Ocean Oscillation (IOD). Wonder why they need to coin another terminology for the same phenomenon. Nonetheless the substance of the article remains interesting...

(Papiya Bhattacharya in IndianExpress) The warm phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has already begun in April with increased rainfall over the Central Pacific. All weather models predict that it will amplify and persist until the end of the summer monsoon, according to Sulochana Gadgil, a meteorologist at the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (CAOS) in Bangalore.

In an editorial in the latest issue of Current Science, she describes in detail the effects of a probable El Nino on rains in India.

The editorial talks about how the Indian monsoons depend on another phenomenon called the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) and, if the dreaded El Nino shows effect this year, its bad effects may be neutralised by a favourable phase of EQUINOO.

Gadgil says there are uncertainties about an El Nino and, by mid-June, it will be known if the phenomenon will occur.

“In 2014, an unfavourable ENSO phase is expected, implying the probability of a drought of over 30 per cent. If an El Nino does develop, the chance of a drought increases to 70 per cent,” she says in the editorial.

In 2003, it was discovered that in addition to ENSO, EQUINOO plays an important role in the yearly changes in rains in India. According to Gadgil, EQUINOO involves a see-saw between a state with enhanced rainfall over western equatorial Indian Ocean and suppressed rainfall over eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (favourable phase) and a state with opposite signs of East-West rainfall anomalies.

El Nino refers to the process of warming of the sea surface around the coast of Peru due to warm sea currents with far-reaching consequences. The warm waters cause fish and birds to die.

A drought in India could only lead to a fall in GDP, says Gadgil. Studies of the impact of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on the GDP and food grain production in India during 1954-2004 have shown that bad effects of droughts are worse than the good effects of rain. Nine such El Nino events have occurred since 1958. Of these, seven led to less rains, six of them being droughts.

However, the monsoon rainfall was above average in 1963 as well as during the strongest El Nino phenomenon of 1997. The editorial says,

“During the El Nino of 1972-73, severe droughts occurred in Australia, India, Brazil, etc., and heavy flooding occurred in Kenya and parts of Ecuador and Peru.”

Some of these climatic extremes may have a common reason — changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean (El Nino) and changes in the atmospheric sea-level pressure across the Pacific basin (the Southern Oscillation). These combined changes have come to be popularly referred to as El Nino, and in scientific literature as El Nino Southern Oscillation events. Most Indian science models predict and simulate ENSO and the ENSO-Indian monsoon link, but they do not simulate or predict the EQUINOO and the EQUINOO-Indian monsoon link correctly. Since the latter has a larger effect on the monsoons, it may mitigate the effects of El Nino this year, if it were to occur, the editorial concludes.

Accuweather: Northern India to Endure Scorching Heat and Drought Due to Weak Monsoon

Read our forecast: Monsoon 2014:  ‘Super’ El Niño is unlikely but rainfall deficiency can cross 16%!

(Eric Leister in Accuweather) The yearly advance of the southwest monsoon is vital to both people and agriculture across India and rest of the Indian subcontinent.

The normal onset of the southwest monsoon occurs during the second half of May across Myanmar before reaching southern India at the beginning of June.

This year the monsoon was actually several days ahead of schedule reaching Myanmar, but it has stalled over the Bay of Bengal during the past week.

As a result, the onset of the monsoon in southern India will likely be up to a week late across parts of the south, but the beneficial rains are forecast to increase during the second week of June.

The heaviest rains are expected to be focused from the western Ghats to the west coast during this time. Scattered rains are expected across the southeast.

With an El Nino expected to build during the second half of the year, rainfall across central and northern India could be impacted greatly.

As a result, the northward advance of the southwest monsoon is forecast to be delayed for most of central and northern India allowing temperatures to soar well above normal for much of the month of June.

Several long stretches of temperatures over 42 C (108 F) are possible in New Delhi and the surrounding region.

 

Long-range forecasts are for below-normal monsoon rainfall in these areas, stretching into neighboring Pakistan. Concerns continue to rise that a drought will develop across northwest India and Pakistan as a result of prolonged dry and hot weather followed by a weak monsoon.

India is a large supplier of rice and cotton globally, and these crops could suffer greatly as a result of the impending hot and dry conditions. According to Accuweather.com Commodity Weather Expert Jason Nicholls,

"Both crop yields and quality are likely to be impacted by drought later this summer in northwest India and Pakistan."

Farther south, the monsoon should arrive before the full impact of the oncoming El Nino occurs. The best chance for a near-normal monsoon will be in the southwest.

With rainfall expected to be below normal for much of India during this monsoon season, any rainfall from tropical cyclones would be increasingly important.

The Bay of Bengal will likely produce several tropical cyclones during the summer months as a near-normal season is anticipated. Although flooding is always a threat from landfalling tropical cyclones, this will be offset by the positives of rainfall during a stretch of otherwise below-normal rainfall.

IMD Drought Alert for TN as El Nino Threat Looms Large

The effects of a cannonical El Nino is mainly felt in North-Western and Central regions of India. If IMD is warning Tamilnadu then they maybe expecting a El Nino Modoki..

Read our forecast: Monsoon 2014:  ‘Super’ El Niño is unlikely but rainfall deficiency can cross 16%!

 

(NewIndianExpress) The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an alert to the State agriculture department asking it to be prepare a contingency plan to face any eventuality triggered by the El Nino effect (Spanish for boy) this year. Tamil Nadu faces a threat from El Nino, a weather pattern that may force a drought on the State in 2014. 

Confirming the reports, D S Pai, director, Long Range Forecasting, IMD, Pune, told Express that observations made in the Pacific Ocean near South America had revealed an unusual increase in the temperature close to the equator this year. 

The change in the global climate pattern coupled with other reasons have resulted in the increase in the temperature of the sea, which would affect the rainfall pattern in South America and South Asian countries, including India, during the south west monsoon.

Initially, the fishermen of South America had found an unusual increase in sea surface water temperature affecting their catch.

“The increase in the temperature has affected growth of plankton, a nutritious food for fish, which has had a direct impact on reducing the fish population,”

said Pai. Further studies proved that due to water current, the temperature in the sea witnessed a spurt, creating pressure difference in the atmosphere, which increases or decreases the strength of monsoon across the globe.

“This may cause heavy rainfall in South America while South Asia, including India, may suffer from rainfall shortage in the corresponding period.

When we examined the El Nino since 1951 in India, we found that our country has witnessed the impact 14 times (including 1987, 1991, 2002, 2004, 2009),” observed Pai.

Of the 14 instances, the country has witnessed rainfall below 90 percentage (of long period average over 50 years) and below 100 percentage only thrice, meaning the country has been receiving normal rainfall, he said.

“Though the north western central India suffers badly due to the El Nino, we can’t rule out the possibility of its impact in southern parts of the country,” said Pai.

The senior agricultural officials in Tamil Nadu have already been apprised of the situation and have been asked to prepare for any eventuality. A senior officer in Madurai said,

“We are already witnessing the effects of El Nino. Normal rainfall in May is only 63 mm, but this year we have received 139 mm rainfall,” he said.

The farmers in TN already have suffered two years on a trot due to the drought, he said, adding,

“We would monitor the situation closely and advise the farmers on crop cultivation pattern in accordance with the rainfall.”