Cancún hit by coldest ever December. Who says Gaia has no sense of humour?

For several years now, we sceptics have bemusedly eyed a phenomenon known as “The Gore Effect”, in veneration of Global Warming’s High Priest and US ex-Vice President, Al Gore.  It describes almost a seemingly causal relationship of temperature decrease whenever global warming or when a global warming event is held. The Gore Effect" has rather a long and uniquely entertaining history. In simple terms, it strikes the warmists whenever and wherever they gather as if Mother Nature herself is mocking their climate hysteria. There’s however no scientific proof that The Gore Effect is anything more than a humorous coincidence.

Said climate sceptic scientist and meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo. 

“You can’t fool Mother Nature. We used to kid in forecasting that whenever we were very certain about a major forecast, it would wind up being so dead wrong that we’d be embarrassed. It certainly makes you think.”  

Said House Energy and Commerce Committee Republican spokeswoman Lisa Miller:

"Tracking The Gore Effect doesn’t contribute much to the actual making of policy.  But it can be fun.”

Denmark has a maritime climate and milder winters than its Scandinavian neighbours. It hasn’t had a white Christmas for 14 years and only had seven last century. Yet, last year, temperatures fell as low as minus 8 Celsius forcing climate justice activists, who came to Copenhagen little prepared for such “climate, to rush to buy warm wear at exorbitant prices.  And as world leaders flew into Copenhagen to discuss a solution to global warming they faced freezing weather as a blizzard dumped 10 centimeters (4 inches) of snow on the Danish capital.

Obama still managed to cobble a “feeble” agreement in Copenhagen which he is, of course, termed as “unprecedented.” Nancy Pelosi, the then Chair of the House of Representatives and the large US congressional delegation cut their trip short to beat the snow. Obama stayed a little bit longer, but even he ended up departing early. TV news channels captured him on tape rushing past a host of journalists to leave the snow-covered Copenhagen summit just in time to catch the East Coast blizzard. 

“Because of weather constraints in Washington, I am leaving before the final vote."

the President said as an explanation that caused a burst of laughter for shivering flock of journalists covering the event.  Reports the New York Times

“Obama landed at Andrews Air Force base at 1 a.m. Saturday and the encroaching weather led him to take a motorcade rather than the usual helicopter hop to the White House.”

And by the time, he reached the snow deluged White House, he gained a much deeper understanding why it was called just that - the White House!

This is why we sceptics cannot but just love the Gore Effect. And while global warmists anxiously waited for a Global Climate Treaty, we on the other hand waited with bated breath for the Gore effect to play out. Cancún has a tropical climate, specifically a tropical wet and dry climate with little temperature differences between seasons, but pronounced rainy seasons. The city is warm year-round, and moderated by onshore trade winds, with an annual mean temperature of 27.1 °C (80.8 °F). This placed the odds stacked heavily against a Gore Effect strike Cancun. And yet, it didn’t fail us. For six consecutive days during the Cancun Meet, temperatures hit a 100 year low!

Dr. Roy Spencer, ex-NASA and well known astro-physicist who was in Cancun writes in his blog:

“Today’s my first full day in Cancun at COP-16, and as I emerged from my hotel room I was greeted by a brisk, dry, cool Canadian breeze. It was 54 deg. F (12.2 C) in Cancun this morning — a record low for the date. (BTW, Cancun is nowhere near Canada).Al Gore is not supposed to be here…but it could be that the Gore Effect has announced his secret arrival. We will check into this”    

Conservative Party Member of European Parliament (MEP), Roger Helmer writes in his blog:   

“I’m here at the UN’s Cancun Climate Conference—or COP16 (Conference of the Parties) in the jargon.  The last two COPs in Poznan (2008) and Copenhagen (2009) were (ironically) characterized by exceptionally cold weather.  I can’t say that there’s December snow in Cancun, but locals tell me it’s exceptionally cool for the time of year.  But then again, that’s Climate Change for you!

This is the world’s travelling circus; the moveable feast; the great eco-love-in.  We have some 15,000 delegates (including me — I’m accredited for the EU which is a great irony since I am hugely sceptical of the EU as well as the myth of man-made climate change).  Of course 99% of the delegates are paid-up true believers in Al Gore’s Great Climate Myth, so everyone here agrees with each other, reinforcing their opinion that Al Gore’s view is the only sane view to have.  I take a profoundly different view though.”  

The Cancun Meet started with an invocation to Mayan Goddess, Lxchtel. Doug Powers writing in a blog cheekily commented: 

“One thing’s for certain: Lxchtel, the Mayan Moon Goddess to which the global warming summit people are praying, is not only wearing her insulated bra and heated underwear in Cancun this week, but she also has a helluva sense of humour”

Is Gaia, the Greek Goddess personifying Earth, often called Mother Earth, trying to tell global warmists something significant through the Gore Effect? Till recently, global warmists tried very hard not to take the hint. No more. Enter George Monbiot - author and columnist for the Guardian, and the recipient of a United Nations 500 award for environmental achievement.

Among his bestsellers was The Age of Consent: a Manifesto for a New World Order and Captive State. Monbiot is often considered the Pope of the journalist community of the Global Warming world and arch rival of James Delingpole, in our own sceptic camp. Monbiot recently wrote in the Guardian a post entitled “Cancún climate change summit: Is God determined to prevent a deal?” :

“Every time anyone gets together to try to prevent global climate breakdown, He swaths the rich, densely habited parts of the world with snow and ice”   

Monbiot is apparently greatly depressed by the worst winter in 100 years that hit the Northern Hemisphere that coincided with the Cancun meet. What he doesn’t realise is that plunging temperatures so far is just a foretaste of what is yet to come in January-March. So what can we expect from Monbiot in the months ahead? From depression to a complete nervous breakdown??

 

 

Cancun Speeds up the end of Climate Hysteria

The run-up to Cancun was no different to those of previous climate meets. The alarmist machine was busy overtime cranking out scenarios, reports, research and propaganda on the evils of a carbon-based economy. Their favourite had been the claim that 2010 ties with 1998 for the warmest year on recorded history - both super El Nino years. Why would they do that we may ask as it only confirms an absence of evidence that global warming is demonstrating an accelerating trend in the last 12 years. Christopher Booker jocularly commented:

“The prediction that global temperatures will rise by four degrees in 50 years comes from that same UK Met Office computer which five weeks ago was telling us we were about to enjoy a milder than average winter, after three years when it has consistently got every one of its winter and summer forecasts hopelessly wrong.

When Vicky Pope, the Met Office’s Head of Climate Change Advice, wanted to fly out from Gatwick to Cancun to tell them that 2010 is the hottest year on record, she was trapped by inches of the same global warming that her £33 million computer had failed to predict.”

However the most outlandish of these offerings during the run-up to Cancun had been that permafrost containing an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, being released at an accelerating rate as Arctic climates change. Alarmist claimed the release of methane could have a significant impact on the rate of climate change. This claim made despite arctic sea ice demonstrating no evidence of accelerated melt down and increase of atmospheric carbon likewise showing no runaway increase.

With United Nations climate negotiators believe facing an uphill battle to advance their goal of reducing emissions linked to global warming, it's no surprise that the woman steering the talks appealed to an ancient Mayan goddess Monday. The Cancun conference began with an invocation of goddess Lxchel. Yes you heard it right. Lxchel! As reported by the blog Newsbusters:

"Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, invoked the ancient jaguar goddess Lxchel in her opening statement to delegates gathered in Cancun, Mexico, noting that Lxchel was not only goddess of the moon, but also "the goddess of reason, creativity and weaving. May she inspire you -- because today, you are gathered in Cancun to weave together the elements of a solid response to climate change, using both reason and creativity as your tools?"

The low expectations of the Cancun UNFCC, COP 16 however misleads as it gives an impression that almost nothing will materialize as tangible outcomes. Invocation to Lxchel aside, judging from the first week proceedings, we climate sceptics are being forced to radically revise this faulty perception. With all humility we confess, we were wrong, so wrong. Never in our wildest imagination did we expect Cancun would set the ball rolling for the quicker end of this global warming scam.

Three developments in particular triggered our revision of perception. The most significant setback to climate alarmists was Japan’s refusal to extend their Kyoto commitments. The Guardian reported “The forthrightness of the statement took people by surprise, said one British official". Soon after Japan’s stunner came UN climate chief Christiana Figueres clarification that Japan is only one of three countries among the 36 signatories that's opposed to extending their emission targets under the pact. She announced the others being Canada and Russia! The flood gates are now open to dump Kyoto! If this is not the beginning of the end of this scam what is?

Back to low expectations, United Nations climate chief, Christiana Figueres of Costa Rica believes a single, definitive, all encompassing climate deal is unlikely in her lifetime. Similarly, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon sees no binding deal coming out this year. If the prognosis for Cancun is no legally binding climate pact possible, then Plan B was to continue Kyoto Protocol for developed countries and introduce a voluntary burden sharing for developing countries. The Kyoto Protocol had stipulated the different responsibilities and obligations for the developing and developed countries, mapped out different stages for the world to cope with climate changes and set common but differentiated responsibilities.

The US, the leading carbon emitter on per capita basis, is still a non-signatory to this treaty. India’s Environment Minister summed up this challenge when he said  before leaving for Mexico his mandate was to “play a bridge” between the US and the others. He said any climate deal without the US on board would not be worth it and exhorted America to improve its offer of a 14% emission reduction target by 2020. With the US a non-signatory to Kyoto and unlikely to do so future with Republicans controlling the House of Representatives, now combined with 3 developed countries deciding to walk out of the Protocol amount, means that Plan B also virtually goes up into flames. 

So Cancun is all about Plan C. These are attempts to gathering lower hanging fruits - mini-deals in transfer of new technology, a mechanism to monitor, verify and report emissions, setting up a climate fund amounting up to US$100 billion by 2020, a plan to reduce emissions in the world’s rain forests and a multitude of bilateral agreements on the sidelines. Seeking agreements here is like putting the cart before the horse as with Plan A & B taken out by events, there is simply no impetus for world leaders to reach agreement on Plan C. 

This brings us back to the other two major developments in Cancun. A block of developing countries accused Western delegates of being more interested in entertaining themselves in Cancun’s wonderful sunny beaches than in the on-going negotiations! This could well be negotiation tactics, but it does well be a lack of seriousness and urgency on the part of Western countries to seal up a deal at Cancun. 

The next development was as serious setback as it could be - Pachauri, Chair of UN-IPCC confessing that “There are huge gaps in the effort as far as scientific research is concerned”. If there are gaps in climate research, how valid are any way the UN-IPCC’s forecast that the world will see a more than 4C rise by the end of this millennium?  Given these doubts, why should western leaders be expected to show any urgency at all? We can now understand why they prefer the warm beach, particularly so when their countries are one foot under snow!

Besides, each of these mini outcomes under Plan C has significant obstacles in realizations. Solutions to a global climate fund is badly crippled by the contraction of carbon market by the closure of the Chicago Exchange on one hand and the economic problems faced by the US and Eurozone economies on the other hand. Besides, any agreement on transfer of new “green” energy technologies is badly hampered by the patent regime in most developed countries. This is an area which India places high importance. Being a net oil importer, the country recognizes that in future, for sheer economic reasons, it should switch to non-oil energy - so called renewable energy being one such option. This leaves agreement on forest with highest prospect of agreement among the targeted outcomes under Plan C.

The fact is that even with the existence of Kyoto Protocol, global availability of and demand for fossil fuels — oil, gas and coal — continues to climb and there isn’t a realistic outlook for future energy use that shows any signs that carbon-based energy sources are about to decline. The green energy bubble is bursting in Europe as nation after nation are slashing their subsidies to solar and wind projects, the touted alternatives to fossil fuels.  

An International Energy Agency (IEA) study indicates that carbon-based fuel use is going to increase in the future a significant way. Coal will soar as China increases its use to power its growth. A projected drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD countries is expected to be offset by big increases elsewhere, especially China, where 600 gigawatts of new capacity will exceed the current capacity of the U.S., European Union and Japan combined.

The main increase in fossil-fuel use will come from natural gas, especially shale gas, a new source of lower-carbon fuel that until two years ago did not exist as a viable fuel. Oil, meanwhile, is not running out of fashion. Despite all the talk of electric cars and green renewable, gasoline and diesel are likely to remain the main fuel for automobiles for decades, with electric cars capturing only a single-digit fraction of the market.

An expected the Cancun failure and extinction of Kyoto Protocol would give further impetus to these trends. This augurs well for countries like India who needs energy, and lots of it, to fulfill the economic dreams of our people. Fossil fuels remain the cheapest and most efficient energy source to lift our people out of poverty, particularly as we possess the fourth largest reserves in the world. Wind and solar energy technology have not attained the efficiencies to offer as substitutes while nuclear energy contain risks of accidents though offering big advantages otherwise.

This winter, predicted to the harshest in 100 years, would drive in the last nail in the global warming scam. After this the world will be firmly within the global cooling orbit for at least the next 25 years. With the scam over, the India government should remove the cess on coal impose earlier this year along with the subsidies for renewable energy products. We can expect in the coming years, the planned expansion of renewable energy capacity put on hold and only a few pilot projects undertaken to study their efficacy and R&D purposes. 

For NGOs, the end of the scam for many is an end of their number one revenue spinner. Christopher Booker sums it rather nicely “The global warming scare may have been fun for the children while it lasted. But the time has come for the joke to be declared well and truly over.” NGOs are however not expected to make a formal admission that their role in this scam is over. But it is only a matter of time their climate staff are given the pink slips, if at all it hasn’t happen already. Most of these redundant staff is unlikely to be re-assigned responsibilities as the scam taint has made them unemployable within the industry, as they become an embarrassment for both the organization and the entire sector. 

 
It is apparent that for a long, long time, NGO advocacy on any issue is not going to have a cutting edge as questions are expected to be frequently raised on their judgement of issues and competence in engaging in issues that based on science or technology. Lest we forget, is the image above. Such themes are commonly used by NGOs to raise funds and create awareness on the spectre of increasing hunger in the world. The same images will come back to haunt them. This would be the  true cost of the scam - their guilt of contributing to hunger, food riots and escalating food prices in the third world and diversion of scarce resources in the third world for solving an imaginary problem - global warming. At least, Al Gore had the humility to apologise for the promotion of bio-fuels. NGOs do not seem to have the same character and integrity as Gore demonstrated. They rather have this crime haunt their conscience.

As they discuss Global Warming in Cancun, Europe Shivers in the Coldest Winter in 100 years

Winter Dec to Feb inclusive in Britain and Europe will be exceptionally cold and snowy – like hell frozen over at times - with much of England, Germany, Benelux and N France suffering one of the coldest winters for over 100 years. It is expected that two of the three months Dec, Jan & Feb are likely to be in the three coldest for a 100 years (e.g. using Central England Temperatures).

This is Piers Corbyn, of Weather Action who accurately predicted Copenhagen would be deluged by snow during the Climate meet last year. This time, he predicts one of the harshest winters in recent times for whole of Europe. Read more here.

Meanwhile, Europe is getting a feel of what winter may look like this week. Temperatures dropped to as low as minus 18 degrees Celsius in some parts of Germany, while driving rain in Italy triggered the collapse of two Roman walls in Pompeii and flooding in Venice. Britain, shivering in the earliest widespread snowfalls of winter since 1993, was one of the country’s worst affected with two of its major transport hubs scrapping all flights.

London's Gatwick Airport, Europe's eighth busiest passenger air hub, was shut until at least 0600 GMT on Thursday as staff worked to clear the two runways. Edinburgh Airport, Scotland's busiest, was also shut due to heavy snow showers. A spokeswoman for Gatwick said they had about 15 centimetres of snow to clear.

'We brought in extra people to try to clear the runway. We had a vast army of people. But as fast as they were clearing the snow, the quicker it settled again,' she said. 

Heavy snowfall also forced the closure of Geneva International Airport where around 100 stranded passengers had to spend the night in the terminal while 200 others were sheltered by the civil protection unit as hotels were fully booked. Around 60 flights at Frankfurt airport, Europe's third busiest, were cancelled as the number of takeoffs on one of the airport's runways had to be reduced because of high winds. On Tuesday almost 300 flights were scrapped. Snow and freezing temperatures also forced French aviation authorities to cancel 116 flights from Lyon airport.

There were similar widespread problems on the roads in large parts of western Europe. Part of the M25, the London orbital motorway, was shut while there were severe delays on the M1 and A1 main routes linking London with the north. In Scotland, the Forth Road Bridge connecting Edinburgh with the north was closed.

In Italy, snowfalls disrupted traffic in city centres and on motorways in the northern Lombardy and Piedmont regions, while in Emilia-Romagna the Civil Protection Agency issued a bad weather warning until Wednesday evening. Snowdrifts and fallen trees also caused traffic problems in Germany as well as schools closures in parts of the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein. The Bild daily said that it was the coldest December 1 in several hundred years, with temperatures as low as minus 18 deg C in some places. The mercury fell in even lower in parts of Scotland with an overnight low of minus 19.8 deg C recorded in Altnaharra in the Highlands.