Oopps. As Cyclone Nanauk heads to Oman, there goes any hope of near time Indian Monsoon revival

Cyclone Nanauk seems to be heading full blast to Oman instead of Porbandar in Gujarat as hoped for by IMD....Latest reports say the low has weakened and not to evolve into a tropical storm.

The India Met Department had hoped this system would have enough power to propel it some distance off Porbandar in Gujarat by June 12/13. Some meteorologists had even further hoped that the later may cause the Bay of Bengal to play ball and help it conjure up a circulation there as well heading into Myanmar, but not before directing some helpful southeasterly monsoon winds from the Bay into east India. All these speculations apparently have come to naught.

The real consequence of this is not only it dashes any near term hope of a storm genesis that can give momentum to the monsoon's northward progress but more significantly it will suck both moisture and heat from the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon which dashes any hope of monsoon revival in the medium term!

We are now passed the stage of concern over monsoon failure but there should be a cause for real panic...

Monsoon remains weak over Kerala

Here is one report stating the monsoon remains weak. But there are others that hope a glimmer of hope indicating that winds have picked up speed in Thiruvananthapuram, gusting to more than 30 km/hr this afternoon in signs that the monsoon flows are strengthening.

Monsoon reached Kerala coast a few days later than usual on Friday, offering relief to farmers eagerly waiting for the start of the wet season.

 

(FinancialExpress) A day after it hit the Kerala coast, southwest monsoon remained weak today though parts of the state received rains and isolated heavy rainfall has been predicted till June 10.

According to a bulletin issued by the meteorological centre here, the monsoon was weak over the state.

"Southwest monsoon is weak over Kerala. Rain occurred at many places in the state. Mainly dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep," the bulletin said.

Heavy rainfall has been predicted in isolated places in Kerala and Lakshadweep till June 10.

Aluva in Ernakulam district and Pookot in Wayanad district received the highest amount of rainfall - 5 cm each.  CIAL Kochi in Ernakulam district, Cheruthazham in Kannur district, Kozhikode district and Vythiri in Wayanad district received 4 cm each, it said.

In the wake of the onset phase of the monsoon, squally weather with wind speed reaching 55-60 kmph is likely along Kerala coast and over Lakshadweep area during next 24 hours, it added.

Indian meteorologists closely watching the Arabian Sea for signs of storm genesis

The monsoon looks half dead on arrival and Indian meteorologists are now pinning their only hope on the circulation system now developing over Lakshadweep Islands to pull off a short term miracle!! If it the Arabian sea plays ball than it may give rise to some temporary optimism. If not, the disappointment may trigger greater gloom and panic on this year's monsoon prospects.

(Vinson Kurian, TheHinduBusinessLine) Kerala has woken up to a typical monsoon nip in the air the morning after.  A full day after the monsoon set in, a spell of showers has been initiated here at 8.30 am, following one in the small hours that was accompanied by high winds.

Winds are now west-northwesterly only because of the ‘pull’ to the north of what are originally monsoon westerlies. This ‘pull’ is forced on them off the Lakshadweep Islands ahead of the formation of what looks like a cyclonic circulation. Various weather models, including India Met Department, expect this circulation to grow into a monsoon depression/cyclone.

India Met Department’s early projections tend to take the system some distance off Porbandar in Gujarat by June 12/13. A series of predictions by US-based agencies has suggested that it may turn west-northwest and head towards Gulf of Oman. They had initially projected the Somali coast in Africa as the likely landfall point. But the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in its 10-day outlook did not see any major system materialising in the Arabian Sea.

In any case, it joins the rest of the agencies in the surmise that monsoon flows across the Arabian Sea will peak in strength over the next week. They may even cause the Bay of Bengal to play ball and help it conjure up a circulation there as well. This system may head into Myanmar, but not before directing some helpful southeasterly monsoon winds from the Bay into east India.

Sluggish Monsoon: Can the Arabian Sea throw a lifeline?

Most international models do not paint a bright picture of monsoon prospects, expecting seas on both sides of the Indian peninsula to be relatively calm.  Within the country however fingers are being crossed that the Arabian Sea could come to the rescue by stirring up systems that give a fillip to the monsoon. In the immediate horizon is the system developing near Lakshadweep Islands that is being eyed as most potential. The blog Indian Weatherman observes: 

"Low pressure likely to form off the Kerala coast on 7th June. It can intensify first to a well marked low and then depression. As a depression, it can be positioned due West off Goa by the 9th/10th of June. There is a trough in the 700 hpa level along the 19N line. System could get embedded in the trough. If so, then

a) it can strengthen and move due West.

b) If the rough gets weak by the 9th/10th, then the system will also weaken and move NW and dissipate.

Some models show a) and some b) as a possibility."

(Vinson Kurian, TheHinduBusinessLine) The southwest monsoon made a triumphant entry into Kerala on Friday after a ‘blocking trough’ over land crumbled and ended its stiff resistance for a week. This made the way clear for it to make its lunge inward; the sea-based trough off the Kerala-Karnataka coast stretched out to its best possible for the flows to converge.

Offshore trough

The offshore trough is a reservoir in the air that receives monsoon moisture and, in turn, regulates its onward flow into land as rain. 

Therefore, its strength is crucial for the well-being of the entire monsoon system; the offshore trough was a feeble formation until Thursday evening. But the break-up of the peer trough over land meant that the flows would pick up speed in tandem and the offshore trough gain in strength. 

India Met Department said that the monsoon has advanced into most of south Arabian Sea, Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu, most of southwest- and parts of west-central Bay of Bengal. Its northern limit passed through Kozhikode, Coimbatore and Cuddalore on Friday.

Favourable conditions

Conditions are becoming favourable for its advance into rest of Kerala, some parts of south Karnataka, some more parts of Tamil Nadu and Bay of Bengal during the next three days. The Met also noted that conditions continued to remain favourable for the monsoon to gain entry into the Northeastern States during the next two days. 

This is an anomaly in that the onset over Kerala and the Northeast happens almost simultaneously – that is if the latter has not jump-started the other already. 

It is a sad reflection also on the state of affairs in the Bay of Bengal, the southeast basin of which saw the monsoon sail in more than 20 days ago, only to stall midway. 

Orderly advance of monsoon in the Bay of Bengal, marked by formation of helpful low-pressure areas, is crucial for the spread of rain in the farming heartland of the country. 

It remains to be seen how the seas to either of the peninsula behave after a few international models feared that they would idle for most part of the season. But the Arabian Sea is threatening to disprove these forecasts if the buzz building around the Lakshadweep Islands is any indication. 

Outlooks favour the formation of a weather system (low-pressure area/depression) in the region and its further strengthening. The development needs to be watched for implications for the monsoon system as a whole and its performance in central and northwest India.