IPCC receives a further credibility blow: Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner resigns as expert reviewer

The problems to IPCC never seems to end. Vahrenholt, the high profile German scientist made headlines last week:

'The IPCC is more of a political than a scientific body. As a rapporteur on renewable energy, I witnessed how thin the factual basis is for predictions that are made at the IPCC."

Now a Swedish scientist quits the IPCC. Here's the letter Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner faxed the IPCC:

I hereby resign as expert-reviewer of Chapter 13: Sea Level Changes. I do this for two reasons:

(1) TIME:

A few days ago I noted that the deadline is set at February 10, instead of Mach 10 that I had noted by mistake.

(2) QUALITY:

Having glanced through Chapter 13, I find it to be of such low quality that a serious review would require very much extra work. At previous expert-reviews of mine (2000, 2006), all comments and corrections were neglected, despite their firm anchoring in facts.

The so-called authors of Chapter 13 seem to be a collection of all those who have written anything about sea level changes that agrees with the concept of IPCC, despite that fact that many of those papers were of a very low quality.

To this group is added some persons who have absolutely no insight to sea level changes. It is an insult that such persons are named “authors”.

– Rune Grand Graversen (Sweden) is a Ph.D. student in meteorology

– Gunnar Myhre (Norway) seems to be fully limited to meteorology

– Ruth Mottram (Denmark) is post.doc. in meteorology (glaciology)

Just to check my Nordic country fellows are all “non-specialists” who have nothing to contribute in sea level. Why are they there? But so typical!

All the debate and questioning has been shamelessly left out; not even referred to. And still, there is most probably within that material, the reality is to be found.

Today, the President of the Maldives had to resign. Finally, reality caught up with his illusions about sea level changes.

So should most of the Chapter 13 authors do, too – for the benefit of science. And by this I resign as expert reviewer

Stockholm, February 7, 2012

Nils-Axel Mörner

Sea Level Expert

North India shivers again; Delhi coldest in 30 years

Courtesy: Daily Bhaskar

New Delhi: Rain and snow brought the chill back in many party of North India as the hill states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand witnessed heavy snowfall on Tuesday.

At four degrees, Delhi recorded the lowest temperature on this day of the month last 30 years.

A white blanket of snow covered Shimla and Manali intensifying the cold wave conditions in the hill state.

The minimum temperature in Shimla plummeted to -1.6 degrees Celsius as snowfall resumed in the hills after late afternoon. While Manali, Rohtang, Keylong, Kalpa and other high altitude areas experienced intermittent heavy snowfall, mid and lower hills were lashed by rains.

In Manali, school-goers and commuters had problems following slow vehicular movement even as tourists enjoyed the snowfall.

Shimla and Manali reeled under piercing cold wave conditions with minimum temperature plummeting to minus 1.6 deg C and minus 1.2 deg C, while Solan, Palampur and Bhuntarm recorded a low of 2.5 deg C, 3.5 deg C and 3.8 deg C.

The key tourist resorts of Kufri, Fagu and Narkanda in Shimla experienced 40 cm to 60 cm while Kumrsein and Rohroo had 25 cm and 10 cm of snow.

Heavy snowfall was also reported from the higher reaches of Garhwal and Kumaon. The minimum temperature dropped to 2 to 3 degree Celsius in tarai towns such as Dehradun, Haridwar, Roorkee, Haldwani and Udham Singh Nagar.

The local weather department has predicted more snow and rain in the next couple of days thus intensifying the cold wave.

Floods of skepticism sweeps "Green" Germany: Global Warming movement suffers yet another body blow

Germany is today Europe's undisputed power house, and one of the leading economies in the world. German industrial goods – from consumer goods to industrial equipment – inundate the world markets, from the People's Republic of China to Brazil, from South Africa to Mexico. This success gives apparent legitimacy to the German pretensions to lead Europe, and to impose its own economic and social programme on other European countries, especially across the Euro zone, in countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain, and even Italy and France, plagued by the sovereign debt crisis

Ever since it cut its energy use by more than any other country in 2007, Germany has been described as the world's “greenest” country. Its “green” influence is reflected in a raft of other federal policies such as the one that mandates all new houses to install renewable heating systems. They tend to use an average of 20% less energy than nearby European countries due to strict rules and regulations for energy efficiency and energy saving building techniques for renovations. 

That’s not all. When it comes to transportation in Germany, nearly half of all German citizens use public transportation, walk, or bike as a main source of getting around. This is due to extensive networks of bike paths, infrastructure, and cultural awareness on the importance of alternative transportation - this, even though Germany has a strong auto industry. 

Perhaps its strongest “green” credential is that Germany remains the only major economy to have had a green party in power (in coalition with a centre-left party from 1998–2005) driving the sustainability agenda. Currently Alliance 90/The Greens, though in opposition, has 68 members in the German Bundestag — the largest representation in the world of any green party. The Green representation in parliament shaped policy priorities on climate change since the late eighties. As a result, Germany has been at the forefront of efforts to meet the challenges of climate change and a central actor in shaping Europe's approach to climate change and a key to the successful implementation of the EU's international commitments. 

Consequently, any setback the climate alarmist movement suffers in Germany is a body blow to it globally. This is exactly what has happened. And these developments are huge. Read for yourself:

a.    Plunging Public Opinion to Global warming

An opinion poll conducted by Der Spiegel magazine in 2006 indicated almost two-thirds of the population believed in global warming. In 2009, a Pew Global Attitude Survey that 60% of the Germany population believed in global warming.

But the harsh winter of 2010 brought about a sea change in public opinion. A poll by Der Spiegel magazine now show that just 42 percent of Germans worried about global warming.

The rapid decline of the global warming belief in Germany rattled the Green Party and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research that they organized a conference in Berlin to find ways to stem the rot. Here are some extracts from the conference announcement:

“Climate scepticism is not a new phenomenon in the debate surrounding anthropogenic climate change. To obstruct an ambitious climate protection program and to hinder energy transformation, the seeds of doubt concerning the findings of science have a long tradition, especially in the USA, where it has reached a new dimension. In addition to spreading lies and untruths, the defamation of politicians and covert operations also belong to the repertoire of climate policy obstructionists. 

Also in Germany the activities of climate sceptics and climate deniers are increasing. At first these activities were restricted to the Internet and blogs, but have since reached the German Parliament. Politicians of the CDU/CSU and FDP parties even publicly welcome known climate sceptics, and thus provided a forum for their non-serious and unscientific assertions.”

Much as they tried, the Alliance 90/The Greens could not stem the decline. A recent survey that those who held global warming beliefs dropped to 32% - slightly less than one-third the population, and expected to fall more drastically due to this year’s harsh winter.

a.    Heavyweight of Green Movement converts to Climate Sceptic, writes book - Die kalte Sonne (The Cold Sun)

P Gosselin in his blog NoTricksZone gives us the details:

“One of the fathers of Germany’s modern green movement, Professor Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt, a social democrat and green activist, decided to author a climate science skeptical book together with geologist/paleontologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning. Vahrenholt’s skepticism started when he was asked to review an IPCC report on renewable energy.

He found hundreds of errors. When he pointed them out, IPCC officials simply brushed them aside. Stunned, he asked himself, “Is this the way they approached the climate assessment reports?”

Vahrenholt decided to do some digging. His colleague Dr. Lüning also gave him a copy of Andrew Montford’s The Hockey Stick Illusion. He was horrified by the sloppiness and deception he found. Persuaded by Hoffmann & Campe, he and Lüning decided to write the book. Die kalte Sonne cites 800 sources and has over 80 charts and figures. It examines and summarizes the latest science.

The science was hyped. The book started hitting the bookshops today and has already hit no. 1 on the Amazon.de list for environment books. Indications show that it will climb very high in the overall bestseller charts. It’s published by a renowned publishing house and is now sending shock waves through the German climate science establishment.”

At a press conference today in Berlin, Vahrenholt, Lüning and publisher Hoffmann & Campe introduced the book and answered reporters’ questions. When asked why Hoffmann & Campe decided to publish “such a book”, the spokesman simply answered that the time is right – and there’s a real audience for the book. Even the weather timing was right! Germany is now experiencing its worst cold snap in 26 years. That makes it hard to deny lack of warming.

It needs to be pointed out Vahrenholt and Lüning are not skeptics; they are lukewarmers who have not been able to find any evidence of a coming climate catastrophe. They believe that man should switch to renewables, but do so in a rational manner: “Work fast, but don’t hurry.”

The authors have set up a website for Die kalte Sonne here.

c.    Warmist Media turn Sceptic

Two of Germany’s leading media publication, once staunch warmist, turned sceptical in their editorial policy. Again, P Gosselin in his blog NoTricksZone gives us the details:

“Today Germany’s national tabloid Bild (which has a whopping circulation of 16 million) devoted half of page 2 on an article called: 

THE CO2 LIE. Renowned team of scientists claim the climate catastrophe is fear-mongering by politics.

The widely read Bild will follow with the rest of the series in the days ahead. In part I today Bild presents “What the IPCC of the UN doesn’t tell you.” Bild asks “what if the IPCC is wrong? Can we really blindly trust these experts? Are they really independent?”

Bild then writes:

The phenomenal prognoses of heat from the IPCC are pure fear-mongering.”

The Bild series is sure to cause radical environmentalists to seethe and lash out. Expect an all-out assault in the days and weeks ahead. Already the reaction from activists has been swift and virulent – though they have yet to read the book.

They never wanted the debate – and now the dam has broken.

And the floods of skepticism are sweeping over the country. Worse, Germany’s flagship weekly news magazine Der Spiegel today also featured a 4-page exclusive interview with Vahrenholt, where he repeated that the IPCC has ignored a large part of climate science and that IPCC scientists exaggerated the impact of CO2 on climate. Vahrenholt said that by extending the known natural cycles of the past into the future, and taking CO2′s real impact into effect, we should expect a few tenths of a degree of cooling.

Deep Freeze Brings the Wolf to Europe’s Door, Literally and Figuratively

Courtesy: New York Times

LONDON — Scavenging wolves have been sneaking into hilltop villages in central Italy, with one sighted uncomfortably close to the gates of an elementary school.

Their ominous appearance should not be taken as yet another metaphor for European decline. The lupine intruders, like their human counterparts, have simply been responding to the extreme cold that has swept the Continent in the past week.

The deep freeze caused widespread disruptions and even fatalities, as Rendezvous reported at the weekend. The effects of the cold have been compounded by shortages of natural gas, particularly from Russia, once again highlighting Europe’s dependence on energy from the east.

Wholesale natural gas prices have reached six-year highs in some markets and officials have announced emergency measures to ensure fuel supplies.

My colleague Andrew E. Kramer in Moscow explained the roots of the supply crunch last Friday, and noted: 

“The transit of Russian natural gas across former Soviet states to customers in Western Europe is a pivotal economic and security concern for the Continent.”

One proposed route to greater European energy independence is tapping local natural gas supplies using the controversial technique known as hydraulic fracturing, which involves pumping vast quantities of water and chemicals into shale deposits in order to extract the gas trapped there.

Even in the United States, where “fracking” has transformed the energy landscape and the administration has welcomed the technology, projects have been held up by concerns about water supplies and chemical contamination. Opponents say that fracking damages the environment and scars the countryside.

In Europe, the introduction of fracking has received a mixed reception. France last year became the first country to outlaw the technology and set about revoking existing shale extraction permits.

President Nicholas Sarkozy said the ban would remain in place until there was proof that shale gas exploration would not harm the environment or “massacre” the French countryside.

In Poland, estimated to have the largest European reserves of shale gas, authorities have embraced a new technology that could free it from dependence on both dirty coal and Russian gas.

Proponents in Britain suffered a setback in public perceptions last year when an independent report revealed strong evidence that a series of minor earthquakes felt in the northern seafront resort of Blackpool were caused by fracking.

As the fracking debate heats up in Europe, environmentalists seeking a moratorium until more research is available have found an unlikely ally - Gazprom, the Russian energy giant.

The very company that figuratively brought the wolf to Europe’s door over the past week by trimming gas supplies has been warning about the consequences of fracking as an alternative to Russian natural gas.

As far back as two years ago, Alexander Medvedev, head of Gazprom exports, told a press conference in London:

“Not every housewife is aware of the environmental consequences of the use of shale gas. I don’t know who would take the risk of endangering drinking water reservoirs.”

In Bulgaria, which boasts that it has 100 years of shale gas reserves, Gazprom is accused of putting the squeeze on the authorities to bow to popular demands for a fracking moratorium last month that would perpetuate the country’s dependence on Russian supplies.

Traicho Traikov, Bulgaria’s economy and energy minister, said street protests had been organized through a large-scale PR campaign, backed by substantial financial interests that constituted an unnamed “motivated elite”. 

Bulgaria’s right-wing Union of Democratic Forces this week said anti-fracking protests were linked to Russian strategic interests, claiming:

“It is obvious that Gazprom is serving the same role that the Soviet Army served some decades ago.”

Nashed, Poster Boy of Global Warming, ousted as President of Maldives. What's his legacy?

If Al Gore and Rajendra Pachauri are the high priests of global warming religion, Mohammed Nashed was undoubtedly  its poster boy.

The ouster of Mohammed Nashed as the President of Maldives triggers ambivalent feelings in me. 

In a way, the phenomena of Nashed come across as a whiff of fresh air in the governance history of Maldives. There is no getting away from the fact that he brought back democracy to Maldives. Nashed was jailed in all for six years after being arrested 27 times while agitating for democracy. He remains the country's first and only democratically elected President. He additionally preserved the country's culture of liberal brand of Islam. 

But governing Maldives was not easy. Nasheed's predecessor, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who ruled as a dictator for more than 30 years, may have been defeated at the polls, but his chosen people continue to control all other institutions of the country whether the judiciary, police; army etc who collectively continued to put hurdles to his governance. This task was made worse when a small section of Islamist fundamentalists made him the object of their ire because of his liberal outlook. He played right into their hands when he took to undemocratic steps to curb his opponents. The ouster of Nashed from this perspective remains a blot to democracy. But make no mistake. Nashed will be back in the chair of Presidency, maybe sooner than later.

Mohammed Nashed was built up by global warmists as the poster boy of the so called sea level rise threat posed by global warming to island states like Maldives and Tuvulu who emerged as a small but significal pressure bloc within the UNFCC climate treaty conferences. And Nashed was naturally, their leader and being as articulate as he is; he became their spokesman too with rock star billing. So his fall also evokes in me a sense of elation as a climate sceptic. 

Being Oxford educated, Nashed was the West's darling. Before winning the presidency of Maldives, Nashed ran a human rights organization in the country, receiving liberal foreign funding.  If belonging to the NGO sector, you probably can't help but get carried away by listening to him because he speaks your language. But he misused this advantage to further the global warming scam. To be fair to Nashed, he did it all in the best interests of Maldives. The country has little economy but tourism. Nashed used the global warming scare to maximize its potential earnings. He was a marketer par excellence!

Immediately after taking office, Mohammed Nashed announced that he is setting up a sovereign wealth fund in order to purchase a new homeland for the inhabitants in the event of sea level rise caused by man-made ‘global warming’.

How will he financed this venture? He replied - this will come from a tax on the billions of dollars of tourism that the country enjoys – a ‘climate change levy’ that tourists will be glad to pay for, to atone for having contributed to ‘global warming’ by flying to get there. Here was Nashed masterly engaging in spin and guilt manipulation to get those succumbing to willingly part with their money! 

The global warmist media chipped in to give him a helping hand, among which the BBC, the vanguard of the propaganda machine and guilt manipulation. These articles were penned as if they were retainers from the Maldives Tourism Promotion Board, providing free advertisements for Maldives Tourism. Here are some extracts from Nick Bryant, BBC correspondent in the Maldives, Maldives: Paradise soon to be lost:

"To visit the Maldives is to witness the slow death of a nation. For as well as being blessed with sun-kissed paradise islands and pale, white sands, this tourist haven is cursed with mounting evidence of an environmental catastrophe.

To the naked eye, the signs of climate change are almost imperceptible, but government scientists fear the sea level is rising up to 0.9cm a year. Since 80% of its 1,200 islands are no more than 1m above sea level, within 100 years the Maldives could become uninhabitable.

The country’s 360,000 citizens would be forced to evacuate. The Maldives’ survival as a sovereign nation is truly at stake…The Maldives can exert moral pressure and press its strong scientific case. But not much more. So come here fast, before it disappears. This is a paradise faced with extinction."

So how will Maldives be saved? After Nashed’s under-water cabinet meeting was derisively dismissed as a cheap stunt, there was apparently some re-think in strategy. No need for Nashed to repeat such stunts. Instead, cabinet meetings on the floating golf island could make great photo opportunities for the international media! Floating 18-hole golf course for the Maldives islands in the Indian Ocean is a $ 500 million project financed by EU's Climate Change programme funding!

So a so-called carbon neutral golfing destination. Of course, they aren't taking into consideration their travel into this equation but...

Read also our archives:

SPECTATOR: Rising credulity. The truth about sea levels? They’re always fluctuating

Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner: Sea Level Changes in the Indian Ocean: Observational facts \

ENVISAT data shows sea level declining: Another alarmist claim bite the dust

Sea levels not rising: Swedish scientist

Maldives rakes in the Moolah for Ground Zero of Climate Impact Branding

Breaking: Coup attempt in Maldives by Opposition, police

This is sad. I do not think much of President Mohammed Nasheed's global warming antics like conducting an underwater cabinet meeting. But President Mohammed Nasheed represents liberalization, the hope of the youth in the country. Met him briefly when he was opposition leader and campaigning for presidentship of the country. I had then evaluating a Tsunami programme of the Red Cross. A NGO leader I was contact with said I must meet him as he was the hope of the country. If these reports are true, then this is a black day for democracy.

Courtesy: IBNLIVE

Male: The Maldives is undergoing a coup attempt led by Opposition demonstrators and rogue elements of the police. According to reports, the demonstrators have taken over the state broadcaster.

There are also widespread rumours that President Mohammed Nasheed has resigned following ultimatums from the Opposition.

However, the office of the president has denied that Mohammed Nasheed, the first democratically elected president of Maldives, has resigned.

He won the elections in 2008 following 30 years of dictatorship in the island nation.P resident Nasheed, however, remains in control of the army.

Male: The Maldives is undergoing a coup attempt led by Opposition demonstrators and rogue elements of the police. According to reports, the demonstrators have taken over the state broadcaster.

There are also widespread rumours that President Mohammed Nasheed has resigned following ultimatums from the Opposition.