Northwest, Central India may witness drought: Skymet

We were the first to forecast drought.Read our Monsoon Forecast: Monsoon 2014: Good news is that a ‘Super’ El Niño is unlikely. Bad news is that rainfall deficiency can cross a whopping 16%!

It is only now other agencies are joining the chorus. However IMD has not officially admitted that India has high prospects of severe drought this year. While Skymet now forecast North-West and Central India to be afflicted by drought, we maintain our forecast to include South India as well. 

(MoneyControl) Private weather foreaster Skymet Weather Services has said monsoon has touched upon southern India and rainfall activity in Kerala has been good so far.

The assertion is in direct contrast to India's official weather forecaster Indian Meteorological Department which says Kerala had missed its pre-determined date with Monsoon on June 1 and may hit Kerala coasts on Friday, after a delay of five days.  But Skymet's director GP Sharma maintain their forecast on Kerala has been correct. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, he says rainfall activity in the state has been good.

He agrees that monsoon will be weak this year with the country's northwest and the central parts likely to witness drought. He names, Maharashtra, parts of Punjab and Haryana as the possible victims of dry spell. The slowdown in rainfall was predicted due to El Nino which is a weather phenomenon that warms up the temperature of the oceans affecting rainfall in several parts of the world.

According to Sharma, the chances of El Nino are around 70 percent in summers and around 80 percent in winters and is unlikely to have much impact in June and July. However, August may be a crucial month to watch out for. The Indian Meteorological Department had earlier said that rainfall this year will be below expectations. It had forecasted the southwest monsoons at 95 percent of LPA (long period avg) where 96-104 percent of LPA is considered to be normal.

The Indian Meteorological Department had earlier said that rainfall this year will be below expectations. It had forecasted the southwest monsoons at 95 percent of LPA (long period avg) where 96-104 percent of LPA is considered to be normal.

Monsoon may have set in over Kerala, bar formal announcement by IMD. Concerns remain

(Vinson Kurian in TheHinduBusinessLine) Wind profiles depicted by India Met Department show that the westerly monsoon current has reached the peninsular tip early this morning.

Slightly weaker westerly winds are blowing straight into Kerala. The monsoon may have set in after all, bar the shouting. A formal declaration from the Met Department is expected anytime from now.

Thiruvananthapuram, the monsoon gateway woke up to a slight but steady drizzle, though it has given way to clearer skies by 8.30 am.A couple of thunderstorms during the course day – this is the forecast for the city. India Met Department sees isolated heavy rain over parts of the State.

The obstructing land-based trough extending into South India seems has been made to retreat to the east and get weakened in the process.  Remainder winds of this land-based trough are curling in along with the monsoon westerlies to form a cyclonic circulation over coastal and interior Tamil Nadu.

This circulation could bring in some rain over Tamil Nadu as the monsoon sets in full force. All eyes are now on the Arabian Sea where a cyclonic circulation is forecast to build and gain in strength over the next few days.  

Why this year's drought can play total havoc with the economy

(HindustanTimes) The Kerala coast is likely see the onset of the monsoon by Thursday, after a week’s delay, but the rain-bearing system’s spread could be slower in June, a critical month for farm operations, predictions by a government climate agency shows. 

An evaluation of rainfall variability by the premier Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) shows the rains would be confined largely to India’s western coast and the northeastern states until June 15, even though the rain-bearing system should normally cover nearly half the country by then.   

India’s continues to fret over the possibility of a poor monsoon this year. Although these findings are not part of an official forecast, they add to worries about a drought, which can stoke inflation and pose an immediate challenge for the new NDA government. 

India’s economy grew by 4.7% in 2013-14, marginally higher than previous year’s 4.5%. This is the first time in 25 years that India’s growth will end up below 5% in two successive years. 

Summer rains are significant because two-thirds of Indians depend on farm income and half of the country’s cultivated areas do not have irrigation facilities. Besides, the rains also replenish 81 nationally monitored reservoirs critical for power and drinking.  

Plentiful rains boost rural incomes, which drive up demand for goods, and as a result manufacturing. For instance, rural consumers account for half of annual motorcycle sales.  

According to the Met department’s official forecast released in April, the country is headed for a below-normal monsoon, amid a 60% chance of an El Nino weather pattern, which is known to lead to drier conditions. 

El Ninos are marked by higher-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and their effects can ripple globally – from putting India and Australia at a higher risk of drought, while touching off floods in Latin America.  

Historical data from a 126-year period (1880-2005) show less half of El Nino events have impacted India’s monsoon. 

In 1997, one of the strongest El Nino years, rainfall was quite normal. Yet, in 2009, an El Nino triggered India’s worst drought in three decades, sending food inflation to an 11-year high of nearly 20% in December that year. Yet, much depends on how the weather pattern pans out.  

The IITM’s “extended range prediction”, which tracks meteorological conditions more than 10 days in advance, says current conditions will 

“hamper” the “establishment” of the monsoon over the Indian mainland in June. The monsoon’s progress will be “slackened” till June 15, it says, adding that the system would reach central India as a “feeble current” by June 20 and advance into the central states only after June 25.

The rains act as a strong check on food prices, which have on an average risen 10% in the past two years at the retail end. High food prices limit chances of the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates, necessary for improved industrial activity, since businesses rely on credit. Poor rains can also slow down broader economic recovery from the current “stagflation-like state” of stagnant growth and high inflation. 

The rains ultimately determine prices and output of various crops in India, the world’s second-largest grower sugar, rice, and edible oils. 

India has been lucky to avoid a drought for four straight years, helping post some record food output. Half of India’s annual food output comes from monsoon-dependent crops. Late or weak rains can delay sowing or stunt saplings. Forecasting the rains, which account for three-quarters of India’s annual rainfall, is becoming tougher. 

In 2012-13, six states had to declare droughts despite predictions of a normal monsoon.

India faces bleak spectre of drought. Anti-cyclonic circulation over central India to hamper monsoon rains!!!

Read our Monsoon Forecast: Monsoon 2014: Good news is that a ‘Super’ El Niño is unlikely. Bad news is that rainfall deficiency can cross a whopping 16%!

(LiveMint) The monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala in the next day or two, marking the beginning of the rainy season in India, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Experts fear that the advance of the monsoon to the rest of the country is likely to be staggered during June.

In May, IMD had forecast that monsoon onset would take place over Kerala on 5 June with a margin of error of four days as opposed to the normal onset date of 1 June.

“Till now, conditions are favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala in the next 24 hours, so it could arrive tomorrow,” said Medha Kholle, deputy director general of meteorology (weather prediction), IMD, Pune.​ “Atmosphere is a dynamic entity, we would be able to give a short-range forecast regarding the further advance of monsoon after onset takes place,” she said.

The IMD bulletin had said that the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and its further advance into some more parts of south Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives-Comorin area, parts of Tamil Nadu and parts of Bay of Bengal could take place in the next 24 hours.

The late arrival of monsoon comes with more bad news as the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology forecast a slackened progression of the monsoon till 18 June, and that the monsoon would reach central India in the form of a feeble current by 20 June. The IITM bulletin said that overall the monsoon in India would be confined to the west coast, northeastern India and the southern peninsula in June. The IITM experts explain that anti-cyclonic circulation over central India will hamper monsoon rains in the mainland.

The criteria set by IMD to declare onset of monsoon over Kerala include at least 2.5mm rainfall in 60% of the 14 stations listed for two consecutive days, along with IMD conditions for wind field and outgoing Long Wave Radiation.

The southwest monsoon, which accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall, is the main source of irrigation for 235 million farmers, according to Bloomberg. Late arrival of monsoon, accompanied by further delay in advance of monsoon in the rest of the country could adversely impact sowing of crops and food production, and push food inflation.

IMD had earlier forecast below-average rainfall in the June-to-September monsoon this year at 95% of the 50-year-old average, saying that there was a 60% chance of the El Nino weather phenomenon developing this year. El Nino, an abnormal warming of ocean waters off the South American coast, has historically been accompanied by below-average rainfall in India.

Monsoon wind system take shape to hit Kerala coast the next 24-72 hours.

(Vinson Kurian in TheHinduBusinessLine) Winds have as of now turned westerly-to southwesterly both here and in Kochi, 200 km to the north, as the Kerala coast braced itself to receive the first showers of the monsoon. 

Winds are currently perfectly aligned to precipitate the onset, but are yet to rustle up enough speed (27- to 37 km/hr). They must also be able to maintain their bearing and orientation to sustain the onset and onward progress of the monsoon. 

Also, the other major monsoon feature represented by the offshore trough is still truncated at best.  The offshore trough is an elongated area of low pressure stretching along the southwest coast that receives the monsoon flows and the moisture that they carry. This trough has to become more pronounced and deep to be able to precipitate a forceful onset. The India Met Department has kept up a 48-hour window for this to happen. 

Most model forecasts indicate that all these factors would align perfectly and fall into place over the next couple of days to precipitate the onset in copybook style. In fact, the cross-equatorial flows that turn southwesterly monsoon flows, are predicted to become stronger during the rest of the week and into the next.