The latest model from the
Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia confirms what was billed as the
"Super El Nino" just dissipated - second time in recorded history,
the first being in 2012. The Sea Surface
Temperatures in the Nino monitoring region are neutral while the atmosphere -
Southern Oscillation Index (SoI) is La Nina like. Both together should normally
had been good news for the India monsoon but for the fact the India Ocean
Dipole (IOD) turning negative. This article explains why a negative IOD can
derail the Indian Monsoon. Later today, it is interesting what the IMD's revised forecast has to say...
HinduNBusinessLine) In what looks like blow to prospects for the monsoon, an
unfriendly weather pattern seems to be emerging in the Indian Ocean.
Reference here is to the
negative Indian Ocean Dipole, signs of development of which have been indicated
by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
mimics the larger El Nino-La Nina of the Pacific in India's own backyard
waters. When the IOD is negative, east Indian Ocean (below Bay of Bengal) warms
The warmer waters here will
lead to usurping locally of moisture that is headed towards the west Indian
Ocean. This in turn leads to the 'disarming' of the monsoon flows in the west
where they turn southwesterly and get directed towards south Arabian Sea and
the Kerala coast.
The IOD index may already
have started dipping to the 'negative' as per the June 1-update of the
When acting in concert with
a building El Nino in the Pacific, the net impact on monsoon could be larger
than expected, say monsoon watchers.
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