Monday, June 16, 2014

Rain deficit at 48% till mid-June Central and Northwest India worst-hit.

Mid-June and the deficit is already 48% and in all probability we may end up within the 50-55% range by month end. It is certain now with a deep El Ninoish undertone and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), even the IMD forecast of 93% of LPA would not hold. We are looking at something higher than 20% for the season.

(VinsonKurian) The monsoon may make some progress on the West Coast and over East India this week but Central and Northwest India may be looking at mounting rain deficits in June. 

India Met Department has assessed the deficit at 48 per cent since onset, according to statistics available till yesterday.
Rare exceptions 
Out of the 35 Met subdivisions, the monsoon has been normal in only Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, South Interior Karnataka and excess in only Rayalaseema. 

Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal were the other two subdivisions that bucked the larger deficit trend. 

This trend is more or less in line with the projections made by various international models from early this year. 

Parts of adjoining peninsular India and extreme south peninsula may also have to contend with deficits during the first of the season, says the US Climate Prediction Centre. 

In North India, the rain footprint will at best grow along the Himalayan foot hills in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during the rest of the month. 

Large deficit

This will leave almost entire Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, South Gujarat, Maharashtra, western parts of Jammu and Kashmir, extreme south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala in deficit, according to the US agency projections. 

At the same time, it has warned of heavy rain over the Mumbai-Konkan coast and adjoining Coastal Karnataka during the next two weeks. 

Similar warning is also valid for parts of East India and also along the foothills in the region, especially sub-Himalayan West Bengal, East Bihar and adjoining Nepal. 

Meanwhile this morning, forecasts favoured thunderstorms for Mumbai and light rain and showers for Goa. 

Mangalore too may witness thundershowers but otherwise the monsoon is expected to stay muted over the rest of the West Coast, including Kerala, for the day.

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