Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Monsoon failure: Accuweather predicts widespread drought

(Eric Leister, AccuWeather) While the monsoon has made some progress into northeastern India, elsewhere advancement has come to a halt this week.

Even places, such as Mumbai which officially saw the onset of the monsoon last week, have since dried out. Following several inches of rain last week, five straight days of dry weather have taken place.

The entire northward advancement of the monsoon along the west coast of India has come to a halt and is now approaching two weeks behind schedule across Gujarat.

The monsoon will hold strong over the northeast during the next week, but any advancement westward will be slow, meaning areas that have already received rain will continue, but elsewhere the monsoon will fall further behind schedule.

The same can be said for the west coast where the southern half of the west coast of India will get the steadiest rainfall over the next week with some rain pushing northward back to Mumbai late this week or early next week.

Through June 23, areas from Mumbai to Goa are averaging about 15 inches below normal for the month. In fact, outside of south-central and northeastern India, all areas have received below-normal rainfall for the month thus far.

The combination of a slow arrival and an expected weak and sporadic monsoon will increase the likelihood of drought across a large portion of India during the second half of this year and into next week. The greatest threat for this drought continues to be across the north and northwest as well as neighboring Pakistan.

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