(TimesofIndia) A storm is brewing over the
onset of monsoon as private forecaster Skymet has taken on the weather office
and declared that the monsoon has already reached southern India, but the India
Meteorological Department insists that the rainbearing system will land in the
next 48 hours, in line with its forecast of June 5.
For Jatin Singh, CEO of
Skymet, the monsoon has not just hit Kerala, it has reached Karnataka and
"As of now, most
conditions (as set by the IMD) have been met for the onset of southwest monsoon
over Kerala, according to us," he said.
BP Yadav, head of the
National Weather Forecasting Centre at the weather office said rainfall has
increased across Kerala, which was only one of the criteria.
"Monsoon is not only
rainfall. There are other patterns including wind speed, clouding etc which
have not met the parameters," he said.
The IMD says monsoon had
been static for 10 days and is likely to make progress in the next 48 hours.
It says that monsoon's
progress in June will be delayed and less vigorous due to feeble monsoon
current. The monsoon activity in June will be mainly confined to west coast,
north east India and southern peninsula as the Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology (IITM) has issued the extended range forecast for next 20 to 25
days. Normally, monsoon covers central India (till Bhopal and slightly above)
by June 15. However, the forecast says that the monsoon will be over peninsular
India up to June 25 and may advance to central India afterwards.
"The rainfall would be
confined to west coast and north east India upto June 15. The strengthening and
progression of monsoon seems to be slackened till June 18. Monsoon would reach
central India by June 20 as a feeble current,"
says the forecast. In its
seasonal forecast, the IMD has already forecast a below-normal monsoon for the
country taking into consideration the possibility of an El Nino phenomenon.
Monsoon activity in June
will be mainly confined to west coast, North East India and southern peninsula.
"Even when the monsoon
will cover the peninsular India, it will not be vary vigorous as there is the
anti-cyclone at the lower levels, which is attracting the winds from the north
west instead of attracting them from the south west," said a meteorologist
on condition of anonymity.
However, the forecasters
have not linked the expected slackness of the monsoon in June with the
developing El Nino.
The Australian weather
office, which tracks the dreaded El Nino, has said in its update on Tuesday
that El Nino is 70% likely to be developed by August.
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