Monday, June 9, 2014

Monsoon stalls as Met extends watch for Arabian Sea ‘low’

The blog Indian Weatherman observes:
"The cross equatorial winds are NOT touching horn of Africa nor in strength and Arabian Sea branch is again going to be weak.   The 95A [a WML] will be drawing winds from Indian Ocean and Kerala Coast will be gradually free from monsoon rains."
But here is Vinson Kurian of The HinduBusinessLine giving a different and detailed perspective...

(Vinson Kurian in TheHinduBusinessLine) The India Met Department has extended by another day the watch for a low-pressure in the Arabian Sea as the monsoon remained struck along the Kozhikode-Coimbatore-Cuddalore alignment on Sunday.

Formation of the ‘low’ will cause monsoon flows to rush and converge and, in the process, help push the northern limit along the Karnataka-Goa-Konkan belt on the West coast.

To be located in east-central Arabian Sea, the ‘low’ is forecast to rapidly intensify into a cyclone (to be called Nanauk, a name contributed by Myanmar) due to the presence of a very warm pool of waters.

This pool extends to the west and north-west towards the Arabian Peninsula, where the system is forecast to head before making a landfall over Oman by Saturday (June 14).

A US-based forecaster said the cyclone would be posited equidistant from India’s west coast and Oman on the other side by midnight of Wednesday.

Until such time, the monsoon would be active on the west coast. By Thursday, the cyclone may flare up one last time before closing in on Oman coast. Landfall may take place on Friday morning.
Remnant system

Other forecasts said the cyclone would have left behind a remnant off the Kerala-Karnataka coast that would act as a rallying point for some of the flows directed into the parent system.

The sibling will act as a separate rain-head and hit the Karnataka-Konkan coast, pounding it with heavy rain later during this week and into the next. In the meantime, some of the activity would have triggered a response from the Bay of Bengal on the other side of the peninsula.

A likely cyclonic circulation area is indicated there but will in all likelihood be headed towards Myanmar. This will cause some monsoon southeasterlies to get directed into East India.

East and North-East India, especially Odisha, Seemandhra, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, south-east Madhya Pradesh and East Bihar, may get the rain during the week starting June 14.

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