WTIO31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (NILAM)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (NILAM)
WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 10.3N 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT
07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY
SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 11.7N 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.6N 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.4N 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N
81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE
LLCC REMAINS ON A STEADY TRACK
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER
LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE STR IS CREATING
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
SYSTEM, AND IS ALSO LEADING TO
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOT). THE
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE IS THE
PRIMARY MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF INDIA AND WEAKENING IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO
INCREASING LAND INTERACTION. THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
MODELS SHOWING THE LLCC COULD
APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF
INDIA IN LATER TAUS, BUT THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ARABIAN SEA.
BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF
MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z,
312100Z AND 010300Z.//
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