Cyclone Nilam: Joint Typhoon Warning Center Latest Bulletin

WTIO31 PGTW 310300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (NILAM) WARNING NR 007//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (NILAM) WARNING NR 007   

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   310000Z --- NEAR 10.3N 81.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 81.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 11.7N 79.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 13.6N 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 15.4N 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

310300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 81.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE

MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHICH IS IN

LINE WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE

LLCC REMAINS ON A STEADY TRACK AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. UPPER LEVEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE STR IS CREATING

FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM, AND IS ALSO LEADING TO

MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOT). THE

FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE

SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE

SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF INDIA AND WEAKENING IN

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING LAND INTERACTION. THERE

HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS SHOWING THE LLCC COULD

APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA IN LATER TAUS, BUT THERE DOES

NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ARABIAN SEA.

BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24, THERE

IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z,

312100Z AND 010300Z.//