WTNT33 KNHC 291439TCPAT3BULLETINHURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 29NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1820121100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012...SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON......EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTALHURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...37.5N 71.5WABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEYABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITYMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORMWARNING FOR BERMUDA.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDSIN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OFTHE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTSOF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITYAREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TOMERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...ANDSOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERNENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FORTHESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITEDSTATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASEMONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEFORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDETHE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONALMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. SANDY ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDTHE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OFSANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THESOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THATTHE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AFRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OFTHE SYSTEM...AND...IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLEDURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVINGINLAND.HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDSEXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TOTROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM LONG ISLAND SOUTHWARD ALONGTHE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...ANDEXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ANDDELAWARE BAY. A WEATHERFLOW REPORT INDICATES A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53MPH...85 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...HAS RECENTLYOCCURRED ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BYRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE-FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADYOCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTHCAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOCONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTICCOAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY THIS EVENING. WINDSAFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BESIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGEAND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BEFLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWINGDEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGHTIDE...NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FTSE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FTUPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FTLONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FTELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FTCT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDSBAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FTCAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FTMA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FTSURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGEAND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATERLEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED ANDEXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHERSANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATIONSPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCALNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FARNORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTEDOVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVAPENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATENORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THEMOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGHWEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OFSOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHESOF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEEBORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGHNEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.$$FORECASTER STEWART
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