Thursday, November 15, 2012

New Study: Temperature to decline by 4.9°C by 2040. Starting now!

The recent revelation by the UK Met Office and Climate Research Unit (CRU), East Anglia that the globe had not warmed for the last 16 years is just a precursor to their expected admission shortly that the world is plunging to a Grand Minimum as the sun heads for hibernation that usually lasts at least a century. The Met Office-CRU global temperature dataset is used as the gold standard of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their reports.

Now a renowned climatologist, David Archibald in a newly published paper has predicted that global cooling is here and we would be heading into a Grand Minimum - the Little Ice Age by 2040s.

(JoNova) David Archibald, polymath, makes a bold prediction that temperatures are about to dive sharply (in the decadal sense). He took the forgotten correlation that as solar cycles lengthen and weaken, the world gets cooler. He refined it into a predictive tool, tested it and published in 2007. His paper has been expanded on recently by Prof Solheim in Norway, who predicts a 1.5°C drop in Central Norway over the next ten years.

Our knowledge of the solar dynamo is improving, and David adds the predicted solar activity ’til 2040 to the analysis. Normal solar cycles are 11 years long, but the current one (cycle 24) is shaping up to be 17 years (unusually long), and using historical data from the US, David predicts  a 2.1°C decline over Solar Cycle 24 followed by a further 2.8°C over Solar Cycle 25. That adds up to a whopping 4.9°C fall in temperate latitudes over the next 20 years. We can only hope he’s wrong. As David says
”The center of the Corn Belt, now in Iowa, will move south to Kansas.”
He also predicts continuing drought in Africa for another 14 years, with droughts likely in South America too.

If he’s right, it’s awful and excellent at the same time. Cold hurts, but wouldn’t it be something if we understood our climate well enough to plan ahead?

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